2018 Berlin Marathon Discussion Thread: Will Kipchoge get the WR? Will Dibaba get the win?

LetsRun.com wrote:

Because if Eliud Kipchoge does break the world record, for once the best marathoner on Earth and the fastest marathoner on Earth will be one and the same.

I would argue that was the case for most of the recent world record holders, they were at least for some time the best marathoners in the world. You could argue that Wanjiru and Kipchoge, and probably G Mutai, were also the best marathoners for period without ever setting a WR, but Khannouchi, Tergat and Haile were unquestionably the world's best male marathoners for a time. So, if Kipchoge sets a WR, the best and the fastest will once again be the same.

It's not on NBCSN.

Not a College Runner wrote:

It's not on NBCSN.

Yeah, but on race day (tomorrow) it will be.

Not the same. Mo is running in an era where 5/10000 is weaker than previous decades. When Geb won the 1997 WC 10000 he beat 3 runners who all had better PBs than Farah.

Kipchoge, on the other hand, is running marathons in an era where people are running faster than ever before.

Querfeldein wrote:

LetsRun.com wrote:

Because if Eliud Kipchoge does break the world record, for once the best marathoner on Earth and the fastest marathoner on Earth will be one and the same.

I would argue that was the case for most of the recent world record holders, they were at least for some time the best marathoners in the world. You could argue that Wanjiru and Kipchoge, and probably G Mutai, were also the best marathoners for period without ever setting a WR, but Khannouchi, Tergat and Haile were unquestionably the world's best male marathoners for a time. So, if Kipchoge sets a WR, the best and the fastest will once again be the same.

Tergat never was the world´s best marathoner. Sure, he set a WR and won New York, but the rest of his marathon career was inconsistent.

Breaking the record makes you the fastest guy until the next guy breaks the record. But that doesn't make you the best of all time. I'm more impressed by what you won, who you beat, and how you beat them. That never changes. I know it's a while back but Abebe Bikila winning at Rome in 1960 in bare feet and then defending his title in Tokyo '64 with a winning margin of about 4 minutes is up there.

well, :

(With all du respect to Kipchoge, who I have a lot of respect for) As I said before, the only strong competitor Kipchoge beat is Kipsang in London 2015 and 2016. He also beat Biwott who was good for a very short period, but all the others were either injured (Kimetto and Bekele) or could hardly run 2:04.

We're not in an era where people are running faster. Kipchoge and Kipsang are the only people capable of running 2:03 consistently, but Kipsang might be finished, so Kipchoge is out there dominating as much as Mo Farah used to.

Again, I'm not bashing Kipchoge, but it's hard to say he's the greatest when you look at his competition and his times. With those Nike shoes, he should have destroyed the WR.

musclessfitness wrote:

nameee:

I agree with the couple of points you said. However, you have to add Geoffrey Mutai and maybe the smallest and most consistent runner Tsegaye Kebede. I would consider Samuel Wanjiru as well since he has a couple of records and he did not lose a single marathon or half marathon.

scorpion_runner:

I don't like the Dibaba family since I'm 99.9% sure they're doping. Genzebe was always going for records because that's how arrogant dopers are.

Anyways, I think she can run 2:16 on a good day, but Paula's record is gonna safe for a couple\few more years.

I love Wanjiru, but he never held the marathon WR (closest he got was running 2:05:10 when the WR was 2:04:26.) and he did lose several races. He lost London in 2007 to Lel (my favorite running picture is them shaking hands at the end) and he also had a DNF in 2010 London I believe.

Scorpion Runner

I am a big fan of Kipsang, but I do not think the is the GOAT. You bring up some good points though, so I took a look a little deeper.

One point bought up is number of sub 204. Kipsang leads 4 to 2. While that's true, you have to admit it's a bit arbitrary. Lets look at it another way, what is the average time of their top 4 races?

Well, Kipsang does indeed lead that too, but is it that much of difference?

Kipsang: 2:03:34

Kipchoge: 2:03:40

Lets look at their Olympic performances. We know it's unpaced and not ideal conditions:

They've both run 1, with Kipchoge running 2:08:44 for gold, and Kipsang running 2:09:37 for bronze.

Pretty clear that Kipchoge gets the point here.

Other Unpaced Marathons:

Kipsang clearly gets the nod here, because Kipchoge has only run the Olympics, and Kipsang has done at least 5 that he's completed. Interestingly though, Kipsang has only won two unpaced races. NYC in 2014 with a 2:10:59 and Honolulu in 2:12:31.

I don't know how to call this one. Sure, Kipsang has run more unpaced races, but his results aren't that great (he's no Geoffrey Mutai). His fastest unpaced race is the 2:09:37, while Kipchoge's is 2:08:44.

Finally we can talk about consistency. There is absolutely no doubt on this one. Kipchoge has won 90% of his races and finished 2nd once. No DNF. Kipsang has run sub 205 9 times, which is of course absolutely fantastic (Kipchoge has 7), but he also has 3 DNF and 7 marathons where he did not win (a total of 10 of 21 marathons where he DNF or didn't win). No shame in not winning of course, but if you were a betting man, you'd win more by betting on Kipchoge.

I believe Kipchoge will add the WR to his resume tomorrow, and then what? People will complain he hasn't won the relatively uncompetitive NYC marathon.

Of all the ladies competing in the marathon Tirunesh has the greatest potential at 2;15 even a slighly better chance then the great Mary Keitany. Those two ladies with better pacing, competition, and weather can definitly run sub 2:17 and if everything falls into place I give them a chance at Paula's legendary WR.

A one point they was in 2:12 high- 2:13 low pace before pace halfway in 2:14:0 . I JUST wish Mary was running against Tirunesh Sunday and pacers hit half in 1:07:45 - 1:08.

It's good that Dibaba is not running with Kietany, you don't want a repeat of london do you? Suicidal paces usually don't pay of and definatly don't work for world records .

kipchoge is going 61:00 for first half tomorrow

Kipsang wants separate pacer to hit half at 61:30

anyone thinks kipsang will beat kipchoge

Also, Kipchoge is only 8 seconds of the World record and has unofficially run 2:00:25, which is way faster than the WR, where as Mo is 16 seconds off the WR in the 5k and 29 seconds of the 10k world record. So...

Will Kipchoge win? Will the tv feed be 50% Hahner twin coverage?

Querfeldein wrote:

LetsRun.com wrote:

Because if Eliud Kipchoge does break the world record, for once the best marathoner on Earth and the fastest marathoner on Earth will be one and the same.

I would argue that was the case for most of the recent world record holders, they were at least for some time the best marathoners in the world. You could argue that Wanjiru and Kipchoge, and probably G Mutai, were also the best marathoners for period without ever setting a WR, but Khannouchi, Tergat and Haile were unquestionably the world's best male marathoners for a time. So, if Kipchoge sets a WR, the best and the fastest will once again be the same.

Was Geb unquestionably the world's best marathoner? I know he won Berlin and Dubai every year and broke the WR 2x, but how many of the best guys was he facing? He never raced Wanjiru and was 0-2 against Martin Lel, two other guys who had a case as World #1 during that period.

Admittedly I wasn't following the sport as closely then as I do now, but idk if Geb was ever the unquestionable World #1.

Scorpion Runner, why do you have this position against special drinks with too higher percentage of sugar (my same position), but don't have the same position about EPO ?

musclessfitness wrote:

well, :

(With all du respect to Kipchoge, who I have a lot of respect for) As I said before, the only strong competitor Kipchoge beat is Kipsang in London 2015 and 2016. He also beat Biwott who was good for a very short period, but all the others were either injured (Kimetto and Bekele) or could hardly run 2:04.

We're not in an era where people are running faster. Kipchoge and Kipsang are the only people capable of running 2:03 consistently, but Kipsang might be finished, so Kipchoge is out there dominating as much as Mo Farah used to.

Again, I'm not bashing Kipchoge, but it's hard to say he's the greatest when you look at his competition and his times. With those Nike shoes, he should have destroyed the WR.

He did. His PB is 2:00:25. WR destroyed.

Renato Canova wrote:

Scorpion Runner, why do you have this position against special drinks with too higher percentage of sugar (my same position), but don't have the same position about EPO ?

First, I find you to be a brilliant coach, and your science regarding running is unmatched.

Well, I have my stand because EPO isn't sugar. EPO is a hormone that is produced by the kidneys to stimulate human bone marrow to produce red blood cells, which is why it is a very effective PED. The more red blood cells a runner is able to produce, the greater the oxygen intake will be, which will give the runner a lot of aerobic power.

HOWEVER, I AM AGAINST DOPING. EVEN THOUGH I RESPECT THE SCIENCE OF DOPING. BUT I WOULD RATHER A RUNNER TAKE EPO THAN TAKE IN SUGARY GARBAGE.

Sugar is not produced by the body. It is metabolized by the body, and it is mainly broken down by the liver, especially fructose. Fructose is only broken down by the liver, and a lot of those special drinks are high in fructose. One of the reasons why america is overweight is because americans have a high fructose diet, taking in tons of soda and sweets, which leads to diabetes and liver dysfunction.

Before the rapid marketing of sugary gels and special drinks, Elite runners mainly drank water to refuel and hydrate, so there was no worry about their stomachs being unsettled, or not being able to digest a drink while running, or worry about any health issues. Now runners are being told by corporations that they need HIGH CARB DRINKS in order to run or perform at their best, when they are already very fast runners, and have done great things without/before taking the drink(s).

Take Lelisa Desisa's participation in the Nike Breaking 2 project. Before getting involved with the project, Desisa only drank water while running a marathon. He had never drank any carb drink or sports gel. Now keep in mind this is an elite runner who had never finished lower than 3rd place in his marathon races ( 2 wins, 2 second place finishes, and 1 third place finish) . He was already a brilliant runner. Nike tells him that he needs to take in high carbs for the project, so he gets on nike's high carb program, and he runs terribly in the breaking 2 run. He looked horrible and bloated, and dropped off big time. I think his time was like 2:12 or something like that.

Sports scientists have already stated that that the drinks are too high of a solution, and that taking such a solution will lead to stomach issues during a race. We have seen Kipsang DNF twice due to stomach issues. Dibaba threw up after taking her carb drink, and Galen Rupp threw up most of his drink after winning the Prague marathon. Those incidents are not coincidental. They are patterns, patterns of the body responding to a high sugar load.

Kipchoge will win in 2:02:27.