Official Sub-2 Live Discussion Thread and Prediction Thread

trollism wrote:

Because nothing anyone has done in the history of running has shown that they are capable of running Sub 2.

Bekele's 26:17 shows that he might have been capable of it some years ago.

I don't know if Kipchoge will make it under 2 or not, but I sure wish him well.

If Kipchoge can maintain the same cadence he had when he ran 2:03.05 and if the shoes he wears allow him to increase his stride length by 2.5% (check my maths) then he will run under 2 hours.

Given he will be running 17.5 laps in the same direction his inside leg is going to be carrying most of his weight. This could cause problems.

You don't know anything about running. Plus, I'm 15. That makes you a pedophile you sick pervert.

About 3/4 of respondents to the LRC poll believe that Kipchoge will run under 2:02:57. That's crazy considering he presumably has no intention of running any slower than 4:34 pace until he no longer can. I say this without knowing if there are any incentives for 1) finishing, period, or 2) finishing under the old WR even if it won't count as a record.

kikKomen Soi sauce wrote:

The biggest factor at play is drug testing. Does anyone know if the athletes will be drug tested? If not, a sub 2 may be possible if doped to the gills.

Bekele's 10k WR is equivalent to 2:00:58 for the marathon according to the Daniels calculator. Kipchoge isn't that good, but with optimal conditions and not following the rules, he could probably come close. In a record-legal attempt, Kipchoge is probably good for around 2:02:30 if everything goes to plan.

In the Nike attempt, if they do a good job of optimizing everything, then I expect a final time of around 2:01:15. Realistically, though, there's a good chance that everyone will blow up and stagger home or DNF.

If they are in the pool they'll be tested (how accurate the tests are is another question). Nike owns the IAAF, which is worrisome.

My guess is that Nike views this as a multi year challenge, they will be quietly happy with a WR, to justify its continuation (if they all fail that would be a major embarassment, hence the 'doped to the gills' statement is highly relevant).

2:00:29

1hr57

old guy 71 wrote:

2:00:57

I concur with a performance of this nature.

Running in a curve.of a track takes more effort than running straight

Of course he goes sub-2:00, I'm guessing 1:59:52.

Does anyone here honestly think Nike (who own IAAF and track and field as a whole) will allow this to blow up in their faces? He is running sub-2 and you are all running to the shops to buy the shoes.

I guess many here underestimate the benefits of the sub-2 scenario.

IF Kipchoge is in his shape from last year he has a very good chance to run 1:59:xx.

I assume he could have run faster than 2:03:low on the day of London 2016. Let's say 2:02:45.

Then consider the wind resistance benefit of drafting and being able to relax bc you do not have to deal with unexpected surges behind the pacers. Let's say that's worth 3" per mile. Now we are AT LEAST in the 2:01: mid range.

I read somewhere that they analyzed the tapers and saw that Kipchoge always was tapering a bit too late. Let's say those are a couple seconds. Now we are in 2:01 territory.

Consider the possible best fluid accessable all the time, a flat, fast course w/out turns, the shoes probably a tiny bit, etc...

I say Kipchoge does it or comes insanely close. The others will DNF or fall way off the pace.

Pikachu

1:59:38!

running behind a TESLA with a massive scoreboard - 1:59:43

In other news, Nike announces that Mo Farah won't be pacing, TtT tunes out of the stream, devastated.

You are in your upper 30's Dennis, not 15, and you are one sick demented human being. Reported.

Dennis T Reynolds wrote:

You don't know anything about running. Plus, I'm 15. That makes you a pedophile you sick pervert.

getting old wrote:

He'll break the world record, but not sub 2,

2:01:37.

This is a very stupid prediction. If a runner goes to 20 miles at a pace 1-2 minutes than their marathon ability, they don't fall off by a minute. They blow up massively.

Kipchoge will 1:59 or 2:05+ trying.

It's kind of too bad they don't tee up the run for a serious shot at the current human threshold, setting off on 2:02 pace and giving him the opportunity to put down a 2:01:xx.

The gimmicky marketing of an obviously impossible 2:00:00 "attempt" will prevent us from seeing what Kipchoge can really do.

Like any barrier for running the marathon, its almost seems impossible until some gets close. This first attempt will be close.

What they will lean is how to run that fast and not t fear that level of speed.Most important how to train for it.

Most on this board are way to young to remember when sub 2:08 was thought impossible, we then thought 2:05, then we break 2:03.

Whats puzzling though is the negativity and stupidity around shoes as cheating.

My god I guess most don't understand what carbon bike frames did in cycling , carbon tennis rackets frames and increased size of the head of the tennis racket. Carbon layers and size changes in alpine skiing,race swim suits. Need we go on. As sports evolve equipment that enhances speed and performance does as well.

They won't get past 20 miles on pace. Likely off track shortly after 15.

How many athletes could even hold a rabbit pace of 4:35 and for how long?

I hope they make it interesting