Canova: "By two more marathons, [Bekele] will be under 2:03"

No, Bekele is not undoubtedly "THE distance GOAT". If you just list current World Records, I assume that athletes like Nurmi, Zatopek, Keino, Viren, Aouita and some more are not very high on your list of all-time greats. (is Kipchoge Keino some of your top 100? Just curious...)

Here are a few FACTS regarding Gebrselassie and Bekele:

1) Bekele came AFTER Gebrselassie (and therefore had to chase his times; we don't know at all if Gebrselassie could have run the times in the events Bekele's PB is superior). For example in Gebrselassie's 2nd 10000m WR 1997 in Oslo, he was virtually jogging the last lap, knowing he easily will break Hissou's WR.

2) Gebrselassie's combination of PBs over all the distances from 800m to Marathon is still better than Bekele's. (thats a fact, the slightly better PBs from Bekele over 5000m and 10000m (and also the big advantage over 2000m) can't outweigh Gebrselassie's advantage over 1500m, 1 Mile,, 3000m, 2 Miles, 10k, 15k, 20k, Half-Marathon, Hour and Marathon.) It might change in the future, but at the moment Gebrselassie's PBs are better (the combination of them) than Bekele's.

3) Span between global track titles:

Gebrselassie: 7 years, Bekele: 6 years

4) Span between global titles:

Gebrselassie 9 1/2 years, Bekele: 6 years

5) number of global outdoor meeting with medals:

Gebrselassie: 8, Bekele: 6

6) number of World Records: (Geb/Bekele)

2000m(i) (1/1); 3000m(i) (2/0); 2 Miles (2/0); 2 Miles(i) (1/1); 5000m (4/1); 5000m(i) (3/1); 10000m (3/2); 10k (1/0); 15k(1/0); 10M (1/0); Half-Marathon (1/0); Hour (1/0); Marathon (2/0)

7) Win/loss record: Gebrselassie>Bekele

8) Global titles from:

Gebrselassie: 1500m(i) to Half-Marathon

Bekele: 3000m(i) to XC long course

9) number of seasons with world class results:

Gebrselassie: 20 (depends little bit on the point of view)

Bekele: 13

10) span between global title and or world record:

Gebrselassie: 15 1/2 years, Bekele: 7 1/2 years

(add 1 year for both if you want to include junior competitions)

So, these are just a few facts which should be taken into consideration. But I still don't say Gebrselassie is the GOAT. For sure Bekele also has big arguments for this "title" on his side. Mainly (to me) his unique success at XC and his doubles at global outdoor championships. After his wonderful Marathon debut in a virtually solo effort it's a close decision I would say. For me, Gebrselassie is still the Nr. 1, but I can see why some people would opt for Bekele.

Just a note to the XC case: first, we should not forget that Gebrselassie also has had very good results here: 3.,4., 5. at the World Champs, victories over Paul Tergat. And also that Gebrselassie didn't had the chance to run a short XC like Bekele has had. Not a very proud assumption that Gebrselassie would have exceled here better than over the long course, with his slightly better PBs than Bekele over the shorter distances. I'm also always wondering why people always put so much evidence in the number of Bekele's doubles, but not in the number of Gebrselassie's records. In 2002, Bekele has proved that he is able to run two XC races of the highest quality on successive days. Fantastic, no doubt. On the next four occasions he has just proved his constancy in this department, but not some new qualities. Still great, I don't want to reduce this. But why not appreciate Gebrselassie's constancy over 20 (!!!) years?

I'm not saying the same thing over and over. YOU are. I added new information in my previous post. You have not.

I am not confused. You are just unwilling to admit defeat.

Yes, you said "You don't need to conduct research yourself to know that something is true", but why did you say that? What was that in response to? THAT is what you are being dishonest about.

It was in response to someone saying that research needed to be done before you could arrive at the conclusion being discussed in that thread. NOT that YOU had to do the research yourself, but that SOMEONE (for example a scientist) had to do it and at least tell you about it. But no, you responded with:

"You don't need to conduct research yourself to know that something is true"

Which in the context means that you don't believe in science and research. Stop lying. You've been exposed.

Crazedseepies wrote:

I've been pumped about Bekele and his advance into the marathon. Especially because he's still only 32 (Kimetto is 30, guys).

It's been linked to in a couple threads, but in

http://www.runnersworld.com/race-training/creating-the-ideal-marathoner

Canova says "By two more marathons, he will be under 2:03. In his third, he will race for the world record."

It's the thinking I've had about this. Step by step, he'll get there. Debut, Chicago, WR. Maybe a race or two in between Chicago and the WR, but he'll do it.

As so often, Renato has no clue. 2:04:45 at best.

Good post.

At the moment, I rate Geb above Bekele. That does not mean Bekele won't move ahead in the future. But at the moment, Geb comes out on top. Certainly is is close though. Which is why the people shouting "idiot!" at those who put Geb one top need to look at their entire careers if they are not familiar with them as you and I are.

Why pretend you hold the *facts* that allow to say who the best is, when you are actually making up funny rules to value performances? The problem is not the facts, but what we make of them.

So you say. Claiming Haile jogged his WRs instead of trying to put them out of sight is quite ridiculous, I think.

What's the formula? This is the heart of the problem.

Two miles, 20000m, 15 km, the hour on the track: do you really think these records have much value?

So we do agree Kenenisa did more in less time. Surely, that favours Kenenisa.

Same remarks: not all distances are equal, and how do we determine that the half marathon is worth more than the XC, for instance?

I would say the number of titles and the PBs and WRs matter much more than how long you stayed at the top.

Being 3rd, 4th of 5th is supposed to help in building a case for being the GOAT?

I thought we were discussing facts. The fact is XC is the only thing at which Haile was not the very best.

The others ahead of him were in Berlin or Dubai, with tons of pacers and people to run with the whole way. Bekele was also slowed by an injury. He was not targeting a particularly fast pace either. We should see a course record at Chicago this time and then that sub 2:03. No, he is not vintage Bekele, but then Geb was long past his 12:39/26:22 best when he ran his 2:03:59 WR.

some comments:

to (1) Gebrselassie has done exactly this: has put the 5000m WR "out of sight" in 1995 in Zürich (where he has bettered Kiptanui's mark by 11 seconds). But even this was not enough, bacause at the time a runner came to fame which many on this board still see as the greatest talent in the history of distance running: Daniel Komen. But in Oslo '97, Gebrselassie was far from his ultimate limit while setting a WR.

But the main point just is: Bekele came after Gebrselassie and had to chase his times. Where would you rank Paavo Nurmi? He wasn't a good athlete? Hm. Then: Where would you rank Emil Zatopek? Also not a great athlete? And Ron Clarke? Kipchoge Keino? Jim Ryun? Lasse Viren? Said Aouita? All of them went heavily down on the all-time lists. Are they just mediocre athletes to you?

(2) and (3) You really need a formula?

Gebrselassie's advantages:

1500m: 0.59s

3000m: 0.70s

Half-Marathon: 1:14min

Marathon: 1:03min

I have not listed all the odd distances which you think shouldn't taken into consideration at all (I disagree, but still...you first have to do what Gebrselassie has done).

So you don't think these advantages balance out heavily Bekele's advantages of:

5000m: 2.01s

10000m: 5.22s

Adding the other distances would make it even more clear: Gebrselassie has the better combination of PBs than Bekele (it might change soon, we will see, but at the moment).

(4) Bekele has not done more in less time, where have I said this? You list his titles. but not Gebrselassie's various achievements: not very helpful. Just an example: in 1995, Gebrselassie skipped the 5000m at the World Champs because of the Zürich 5000m 3 days later (see above what he has done there). Do you really think he has done this because he feared guys like Dieter Baumann or Ismael Kirui?

(5) Where have I said something like that at all?

(6) fair point. Just for the PBs and WRs: advantage in both for Gebrselassie.

(7) In combination with all the other achievements: definitely yes. People are talking as if Gebrselassie always has finished around place 100 in every XC race he has contested. No, he was one of the best also here (some victories also over Paul Tergat, if you know him). Far from Bekele's achievements, yes. But also not as bad as some talking in letsrun.

(8) Yes, just facts. You are absolutely right here. And the point?

Possibly. The competition was weaker in these eras. Where were the runners from the rift then? On the other hand, in their favour, the training methodology and the tracks were probably worse. But these two points do not really apply when comparing Kenenisa and Haile.

Yes. You are ignoring my main point: the facts are not what we debate. We are debating the value of the performances. There is no unique, scientific way of telling. Hence the endless debate.

While this is very reasonable, this line of reasoning leads to rewarding Haile for focussing on more distances. At everything that Kenenisa has seriously focused on, he has been above everyone else.

That's funny. In general, one has to ask people to reread what one wrote. Here, I must ask you to reread yourself.

You got tired at the end of my post and didn't want to think about it?

Anyway, you make good points in Haile's defence, and claiming he is the GOAT is indeed reasonable. (But I still think Kenenisa is the better runner.)

[quote]Nutella1 wrote:

Probably the first time I agree with Vento-lean.

Bekele is not the 26:20 runner anymore. Kimetto could go 26:20 with specific training, no doubt.[/quote

Really? You think going down in distance like that works like that? No doubt?

I do think that Bekele could turn out to be one of the all time great marathoners. It would be silly to dismiss him given his obvious talents and prior achievements.

As a note of caution, it appears to me that many of the best marathoners are not as accomplished at the the shorter distances. I think there could be a bigger difference in marathon and 10k fitness than is generally thought. In particular, some successful 5k/10k runners have too much fast twitch and tend to run out of fuel in the marathon.

Farah may well be one of these types - able to defeat all comers in 5k and 10k races and dominates off slower pace races by destroying the field in the last 300m. Kimetto, for example, could not do that. But Farah ran out of gas late in the marathon after running something like 2:06 high pace most of the way.

agip and 898989 is the same person, complimenting each other. "....which is my point...."

mako wrote:

It's stupid to stupid people. He actually gave several times several explanations why it is really plausible. People like you with limited inteligence just call it ridiculous without offering any real counter-arguments. Either offer some detailed analysis like Canova does or shut up.

If you think that the stream of pseudo-scientific bullshit Canoba served up to support his contention counts as a plausible explanation, then I'm genuinely embarrassed for you.

Canova, with respect to EPO and the "unique" physiology or East Africans, is making a contention that no scientist has made or attempted to publish, that WADA has never made a peep about, and is, in short, a rogue idea offered to a credulous message-board population and nowhere else. If the idea had any merit at all, it would have appeared by now somewhere other than in this shithole and gathering place for dimwits and losers. This is how real science works. It is not incumbent on me or anyone to produce counter-arguments to rogue bullshit, any more than it's up to evolutionary biologists to refute every creationist "theory" ejaculated by stubbornly ignorant and agenda-driven Christians.

I'm sorry that your eagerness to cyberfellate Renato Canova has blinded you to the reality of plainly ad ideas.

How could Bekele not be the GOAT guys? I mean World Record holder in 5K/10K and all the gold medals and extraordinary races.

Bekele is GOAT, no doubt, and he's going to show ti in the Marathon.

I highly doubt he doesn't get a couple more medals in the Olympics for the marathon.

madmandoc wrote:

Farah may well be one of these types - able to defeat all comers in 5k and 10k races and dominates off slower pace races by destroying the field in the last 300m. Kimetto, for example, could not do that. But Farah ran out of gas late in the marathon after running something like 2:06 high pace most of the way.

Farah would have no idea what to do if any of these marathoners decided to do the 10000m. They actually know how to race and push the pace. Farah would be left behind before the final lap.

ventolin^3 wrote:

illegitimate wrote:Still remembering the pre-Paris thread where you said he 'might run 2:05 at best in the marathon.' I'll bump it Sunday after he solidifies GOAT status.

iirc

that was prediction for that run not career pb

i don't seem to have been far out for paris

i saw his paris run & saw enough

he's tough but no real great speed at M

course record is dennis' 2"03'45

if conditions are good & pacing hard to 1/2 way or even 30k & kennster doesn't panic when he realises he's out of his depth & desperately tries to start slowing the race at ~ 35/37.5k & as i expect, eliud sweeps past him as he can bully the runt at M, i envisage :

~ 2"03'30 - eliud

~ 2"04'15 - kennster

i'm see bekele dropping a 203 mid-high in good conditions. if he has competition he will should draft mid-late race.

agip,I just read the first two pages and you seem to have triggered some deep rooted emotions.I support your expressed doubts. It's not a slam dunk.Bekele was great, and has recently showed positive signs of his former self.But is the 2014 Bekele the same as the 2004-2005 Bekele that won all those cross-country championships? Nothing since 2009 suggests that.Can he still do great things in the marathon? Maybe. His 2005 debut in Paris was a large success. Maybe his injuries are gone, and maybe he's not yet too old.Some facts about a 2:05:04 debut in Paris:- As of Aug. 21st, a 2:05:04 was the 44th best performance, and Bekele was the 31st fastest performer of all time. But this counts people like Geb, Wanjiru, and Ryan Hall. Then again, it doesn't include the next wave of debutants. So 20-30 is not an outrageous estimate.- Is Paris slower than Berlin?: according to http://www.arrs.net/TB_Mara.htm, Paris is, on average, about 10 seconds faster. It might even be faster than that, as Berlin was trying while Paris was not.Perhaps the strongest reason to still expect great things from Bekele is Geb's success at the marathon. If he stays healthy, Bekele could, at the very least, dip into the 2:03's, surpassing his countryman. But Kimetto just raised the bar again. Let's see if Canova is right.

agip wrote:

well I think the point of the thread has diverged and I was a but mushy.

there are two ideas on the table:

1) Is bekele the goat distance runner?

2) is bekele currently the best marathoner on the planet... or closely related - Will Bekele set the WR in the marathon.

I did not make this distinction in some of my posts.

I'll say that Bekele probably is the greatest distance runner of all time.

Where I disagree is that right now he is either a) the greatest marathoner on the planet or b) shown anything at all at his current age and with his recent race results that suggests he will set a WR in the marathon. Right now, based on his recent performances, he is one of a around 20-30 east africans, and does not stand out.

agip wrote:

- 2:03:06 Moses Mosop (KEN) Boston 2011

1 2:04:16 Dennis Kimetto (KEN) Berlin 2012

2 2:04:23 Ayele Abshero (ETH) Dubai 2012

3 2:04:32 Tsegaye Mekonnen (ETH) Dubai 2014

4 2:04:45 Lelisa Desisa (ETH) Dubai 2013

5 2:04:53 Bernard Koech (KEN) Dubai 2013

6 2:05:04 Kenenisa Bekele (ETH) Paris 2014

7 2:05:27 Tilahun Regassa (ETH) Chicago 2012

8 2:05:30 Eliud Kipchoge (KEN) Hamburg 2013

9 2:05:50 Evans Rutto (KEN) Chicago 2003

10 2:05:54* Sammy Kitwara* (KEN) Chicago 2012

Boston is obviously out due to ridiculous wind-aidedness. Berlin and Dubai are much much faster courses than Paris. The reason we see so many guys in the 2:04s at Dubai is not that it's short, but that it's legitimately the most optimal course in existence, at least among courses that top elites run. Dubai makes even Berlin look mountainous, hence those times. Bekele would've debuted in a Kimetto-type time on that course with a similar effort to what he ran in Paris. I actually doubt that Bekele will ever get the WR in the marathon, but I do believe that he had either the single greatest or second greatest debut of all time.

I see differing opinions about if Paris is a faster course than Berlin/Chicqgo/London or not. I wonder which it is. Anyone ran it?

Geb was a more transformative athlete. Took the sport to a new level (26:52 down to 26:22, 12:56 down to 12:39). Pre Geb, Solinsky and Rupp would both be world record holders to put that in perspective. But Bekele was simply more dominant. The way he blew Tadese out of the water in 2009 coming back off any injury, or the way he blew Kipchoge away in Beijing. Geb never doubled at Worlds or the Olympics and never won world Cross. It may have died a sad death recently, but World cross used to be the most competitive race in the World (6 Kenyans and Ethiopians, not 3, and no dividing into 5k/10k). To pull off that double 5 years in a row, with ONE day of rest. That is simply a level of dominance Geb never achieved.