Ok, I forgot about one particular race, big deal. So it's "only" the third fastest championship 5k, apparently that makes a whole lot of difference. We might not know history, but you for sure need to use some work on comprehension . I said "second fastest championship RACES" not a particular finish time.
Again you need to learn to read, because I've never said "no runner in history could defeat Hocker in a championship 5k". It would help me if could point out where I said it. Actually I even said "it would be 7:3 Hocker to Jakob, assuming both in top form"
maybe because he just didn't care about it? And maybe that's why Almgren couldn't even make it through round in 5k because he already peaked at that 12:44 run? Don't get me wrong, I don't agree with Hocker's (and Kerr for that matter) disregard for anything but Championship at all. I think that mentality is bad for the sport, and hence I'm more of a Jakob fan, but I can't deny his peaking is masterful. Even Kerr isn't nearly as consistent as him in championships. (2022 mysterious fade, 2025 DFL). So yeah, he just sandbagged it or treated it as a training session. Or put it bluntly, He doesn't consider them races at all (again, I don't agree with it)
anyway, love the discussion, keep it going. That's why I still visit this site, you don't get that everywhere!
You don’t improve that much in a 5000 to go from 13:00 to 12:36 shape like you are suggesting in one summer. That’s ridiculous. It is possible he sandbagged it though, I agree. I think he sandbagged Pre too.
maybe he's just not used to the distance last year? His 3:27 in Olympic as a 1500/5k guy (not 800/1500 like Ngeny and Coe) did suggest sub 12:50 potential already. And then he built on it, and that's what you got this year.
As for Pre, yeah, I think we can all agree on (hopefully) that Hocker did sandbag races or use them as training session that weren't meaningful to him.
of course we know, a 7:52 is jogging for peak Jakob. Hocker’s final 2000 was 5:06. Jakob’s final 2000 in Florence was 5:02 in a 12:48 race. Do you know his first 3000? 7:46. That was nearly 4 years ago. I’d be terrified of a fast race with Jakob in the field. It’s why no one does it when he is healthy.
Again, a very different context. Doesn't apply.
You’re right that context matters, championship races and rabbited races aren’t identical. But the point literally still stands: Jakob has already shown that he can both (a) close fast off slow/moderate early paces (1:50–1:51 in Paris/Budapest plus a fast last 2000 of 4:56) and (b) sustain a brutal pace from the gun and still finish strong. Florence wasn’t apples-to-oranges, it’s proof that he could come through 3k in 7:46 and still hammer the last 2k in 5:02, which is faster than Hocker’s 5:06 after a 7:52.
The bigger picture is this: nobody has yet found a race setup that puts Jakob at a disadvantage when he’s healthy. Tactical race? He’ll dust you in the last 800. Honest pace? He’s already run 12:48(4 years ago)/7:54/7:17/4:43/3:43/3:26. That’s why guys don’t push from 3k out when Jakob’s in the field, the data suggests it only makes things worse. So sure, Tokyo was different context, but the Florence data shows what Jakob looks like in that context too. That’s the scary part.
Ok, I forgot about one particular race, big deal. So it's "only" the third fastest championship 5k, apparently that makes a whole lot of difference. We might not know history, but you for sure need to use some work on comprehension . I said "second fastest championship RACES" not a particular finish time.
Again you need to learn to read, because I've never said "no runner in history could defeat Hocker in a championship 5k". It would help me if could point out where I said it. Actually I even said "it would be 7:3 Hocker to Jakob, assuming both in top form"
maybe because he just didn't care about it? And maybe that's why Almgren couldn't even make it through round in 5k because he already peaked at that 12:44 run? Don't get me wrong, I don't agree with Hocker's (and Kerr for that matter) disregard for anything but Championship at all. I think that mentality is bad for the sport, and hence I'm more of a Jakob fan, but I can't deny his peaking is masterful. Even Kerr isn't nearly as consistent as him in championships. (2022 mysterious fade, 2025 DFL). So yeah, he just sandbagged it or treated it as a training session. Or put it bluntly, He doesn't consider them races at all (again, I don't agree with it)
anyway, love the discussion, keep it going. That's why I still visit this site, you don't get that everywhere!
You said “He just ran the second fastest championship 5k ever.” That is a direct quote. Nowhere in the post I quoted did you say “second fastest championship RACES.”
You responded “glad we’re on the same page” to 800 dude’s post where he claimed that “no runner in history wins a championship 5k against the Hocker that we just saw, and it's not particularly close.” If you don’t agree with him on that, you aren’t on the same page.
Hocker said in the press conference and interviews before Stockholm that he was there to win and to run fast. He wouldn’t have flown to Sweden from the States if he didn’t care about the race. Maybe the 13:09 was a bad day, but giving him 12:36 based on his Tokyo performance is ludicrous and reinforces my point that you don’t know history.
I said "we're on the same page", in that we agree that Hocker would have the edge over even peak-Jakob in a 5k show-down. "On the same page" means we have a general agreement, but that doesn't mean I can't have my own nuances and think critically.
How many people could close a sub-13 in 52.6 (in lane 2)in a championship 5k? Speaking of history, are you one of those thinking that Mo Farah couldn't have run a really fast race as in the vicinity of 12:40 if he cared enough for it because his PR was 12:53?
yeah, that's not the Hocker we've seen in championships. He sandbags even more so than Kerr to the point of being ridiculous.
You said “He just ran the second fastest championship 5k ever.” That is a direct quote. Nowhere in the post I quoted did you say “second fastest championship RACES.”
You responded “glad we’re on the same page” to 800 dude’s post where he claimed that “no runner in history wins a championship 5k against the Hocker that we just saw, and it's not particularly close.” If you don’t agree with him on that, you aren’t on the same page.
Hocker said in the press conference and interviews before Stockholm that he was there to win and to run fast. He wouldn’t have flown to Sweden from the States if he didn’t care about the race. Maybe the 13:09 was a bad day, but giving him 12:36 based on his Tokyo performance is ludicrous and reinforces my point that you don’t know history.
I said "we're on the same page", in that we agree that Hocker would have the edge over even peak-Jakob in a 5k show-down. "On the same page" means we have a general agreement, but that doesn't mean I can't have my own nuances and think critically.
How many people could close a sub-13 in 52.6 (in lane 2)in a championship 5k? Speaking of history, are you one of those thinking that Mo Farah couldn't have run a really fast race as in the vicinity of 12:40 if he cared enough for it because his PR was 12:53?
yeah, that's not the Hocker we've seen in championships. He sandbags even more so than Kerr to the point of being ridiculous.
I think you're overrating the finish. Hobbyhurdler already posted this but let me show it again
"Jakob did 13:02.03 with a final 200m of 25.6 in London 2019. So almost as fast finishing time AND final 200m as Hocker today. And Jakob was only 18 at the time (Final 1000m was 2:25.8, final 600m was 1:23.3, final 400m was 53.6)"
So Jakob was....18 year olds....and he closed in a 53.6 with a final 200 of 25.6.....and you don't think he can match Hocker now nearly 7 years later? Oh my. Here is the race vid.
Winning times and splits from the last 4 global championships:
Eugene 2022: Jakob Ingebrigtsen (13:09.24) final 3000m: 7:50.25, final 2000m: 5:04.48, final 1000m: 2:23.14, final 800m: 1:52.78, final 600m: 1:23.01, final 400m: 53.93, final 200m: 26.68, final 100m: 13.52
Budapest 2023: Jakob Ingebrigtsen (13:11.30) final 3000m: 7:34.45, final 2000m: 4:56.69, final 1000m: 2:21.07, final 800m: 1:50.65, final 600m: 1:19.90, final 400m: 52.45, final 200m: 26.20, final 100m: 13.25
Paris 2024: Jakob Ingebrigtsen (13:13.66) final 3000m: 7:35.4, final 2000m: 4:55.4, final 1000m: 2:21.1, final 800m: 1:50.x, final 600m: 1:20.x, final 400m: 53.2, final 200m: 26.5, final 100m: 13.2
Tokyo 2025: Cole Hocker (12:58.30) final 3000m: 7:41.75, final 2000m: 5:05.48, final 1000m: 2:25.31, final 800m: 1:54.06, final 600m: 1:23.12, final 400m: 52.62, final 200m: 25.50, final 100m: 12.51
Hocker has a monster finish. But I think Jakob, injury-free and in peak shape, would've gradually turned up the heat with 3-4 laps remaining and running the kick out of Hocker.
In Hocker's win the heat was already on. They were 10 seconds ahead of pace compared to Jakob's fastest race, and yet Hocker STILL closed the final 400 faster than all but one of Jakob's 5000m wins, and a faster 200m than ALL of Jakob's wins. I think there's a strong case that Hocker would be the winner. And because of this, let's just say it'd be a very tight race and they're about the same level of dominance for finishing speed at their best.
Curious_Cat wrote: I would say 7:3 Hocker:Jakob Jakob would really need to grind Cole down with 12:50 pace before the bell lap, presumably teaming up with the likes of Gebriwet, Young and Fisher, otherwise I can't see he could survive Hocker's devastating kick. Edit: that said, it could well be recency bias on my part, as I'm still stunned by the finish. I've never seen anything like that in a championship 5k.
Hocker doesn’t have a devastating kick (when he goes all out all the way like others there are a lot of examples of no superior kick). This kick thing is a construction -if Kerr and Jakob let themselves slip that far back they also would have a superior kick. Beamish, El-Bakkali, Yifter, Ovett, Snell -all of them have a lot of races that show that the kick thing is just a way of (wrongly) disposing one’s efforts, and thus making “kick”, “turn over”, leg speed” as the worst myths in the running history.
Hocker won the 5000m because he was the strongest athlete that day, with more left in the tank than everybody else.
Well, guess what, we're actually agreeing with each other. Yeah, his kick didn't not come from pure speed, but his aerobic capacity. That's I always say it's pointless to predict someone kicks from shorter distances PRs. Case in point, Komen has far better PRs in 1500/mile and 3k/2miles, than Geb, but in a 5k, he was the one always getting outkicked. Tim potato is also not renowned for his kick despite his 1:43 800m.
So yeah, I agree with you Hocker was the strongest athlete that day, and he's for sure capable of much faster than 12:58, because, as you said, he had "more left in the tank" . Much more even.
Winning times and splits from the last 4 global championships:
Eugene 2022: Jakob Ingebrigtsen (13:09.24) final 3000m: 7:50.25, final 2000m: 5:04.48, final 1000m: 2:23.14, final 800m: 1:52.78, final 600m: 1:23.01, final 400m: 53.93, final 200m: 26.68, final 100m: 13.52
Budapest 2023: Jakob Ingebrigtsen (13:11.30) final 3000m: 7:34.45, final 2000m: 4:56.69, final 1000m: 2:21.07, final 800m: 1:50.65, final 600m: 1:19.90, final 400m: 52.45, final 200m: 26.20, final 100m: 13.25
Paris 2024: Jakob Ingebrigtsen (13:13.66) final 3000m: 7:35.4, final 2000m: 4:55.4, final 1000m: 2:21.1, final 800m: 1:50.x, final 600m: 1:20.x, final 400m: 53.2, final 200m: 26.5, final 100m: 13.2
Tokyo 2025: Cole Hocker (12:58.30) final 3000m: 7:41.75, final 2000m: 5:05.48, final 1000m: 2:25.31, final 800m: 1:54.06, final 600m: 1:23.12, final 400m: 52.62, final 200m: 25.50, final 100m: 12.51
Hocker has a monster finish. But I think Jakob, injury-free and in peak shape, would've gradually turned up the heat with 3-4 laps remaining and running the kick out of Hocker.
In Hocker's win the heat was already on. They were 10 seconds ahead of pace compared to Jakob's fastest race, and yet Hocker STILL closed the final 400 faster than all but one of Jakob's 5000m wins, and a faster 200m than ALL of Jakob's wins. I think there's a strong case that Hocker would be the winner. And because of this, let's just say it'd be a very tight race and they're about the same level of dominance for finishing speed at their best.
That's because the laps preceding the final lap for Jakob are run at an average of 59 seconds (last 2k in 4:56 in Budapest). Call me crazy but Jakob's finish is more impressive.
You’re right that context matters, championship races and rabbited races aren’t identical. But the point literally still stands: Jakob has already shown that he can both (a) close fast off slow/moderate early paces (1:50–1:51 in Paris/Budapest plus a fast last 2000 of 4:56) and (b) sustain a brutal pace from the gun and still finish strong. Florence wasn’t apples-to-oranges, it’s proof that he could come through 3k in 7:46 and still hammer the last 2k in 5:02, which is faster than Hocker’s 5:06 after a 7:52.
The bigger picture is this: nobody has yet found a race setup that puts Jakob at a disadvantage when he’s healthy. Tactical race? He’ll dust you in the last 800. Honest pace? He’s already run 12:48(4 years ago)/7:54/7:17/4:43/3:43/3:26. That’s why guys don’t push from 3k out when Jakob’s in the field, the data suggests it only makes things worse. So sure, Tokyo was different context, but the Florence data shows what Jakob looks like in that context too. That’s the scary part.
Sorry, your point doesn't stand because the races were so different. In Florence, Jakob didn't take the lead until the final homestretch. That's very different than suggesting he would take the lead at some point after a 7:52 3k split in a championship race to try to take the kick out of Hocker. He tried taking the kick out of everyone in the 1500m last year, and we saw how that turned out.
I said "we're on the same page", in that we agree that Hocker would have the edge over even peak-Jakob in a 5k show-down. "On the same page" means we have a general agreement, but that doesn't mean I can't have my own nuances and think critically.
How many people could close a sub-13 in 52.6 (in lane 2)in a championship 5k? Speaking of history, are you one of those thinking that Mo Farah couldn't have run a really fast race as in the vicinity of 12:40 if he cared enough for it because his PR was 12:53?
yeah, that's not the Hocker we've seen in championships. He sandbags even more so than Kerr to the point of being ridiculous.
I think you're overrating the finish. Hobbyhurdler already posted this but let me show it again
"Jakob did 13:02.03 with a final 200m of 25.6 in London 2019. So almost as fast finishing time AND final 200m as Hocker today. And Jakob was only 18 at the time (Final 1000m was 2:25.8, final 600m was 1:23.3, final 400m was 53.6)"
So Jakob was....18 year olds....and he closed in a 53.6 with a final 200 of 25.6.....and you don't think he can match Hocker now nearly 7 years later? Oh my. Here is the race vid.
first, that's a DL race with no round, second, 53.6 was completely different from 52.6 going from 12th to 1st with a faster finish time. Looking through history, plenty of runners have run 53 in a 13:00 race, even Paul Chelimo did it, but there're only very few people have dropped a 52 (let alone in lane 2) in a 13:00 race (let alone sub-13).
Winning times and splits from the last 4 global championships:
Eugene 2022: Jakob Ingebrigtsen (13:09.24) final 3000m: 7:50.25, final 2000m: 5:04.48, final 1000m: 2:23.14, final 800m: 1:52.78, final 600m: 1:23.01, final 400m: 53.93, final 200m: 26.68, final 100m: 13.52
Budapest 2023: Jakob Ingebrigtsen (13:11.30) final 3000m: 7:34.45, final 2000m: 4:56.69, final 1000m: 2:21.07, final 800m: 1:50.65, final 600m: 1:19.90, final 400m: 52.45, final 200m: 26.20, final 100m: 13.25
Paris 2024: Jakob Ingebrigtsen (13:13.66) final 3000m: 7:35.4, final 2000m: 4:55.4, final 1000m: 2:21.1, final 800m: 1:50.x, final 600m: 1:20.x, final 400m: 53.2, final 200m: 26.5, final 100m: 13.2
Tokyo 2025: Cole Hocker (12:58.30) final 3000m: 7:41.75, final 2000m: 5:05.48, final 1000m: 2:25.31, final 800m: 1:54.06, final 600m: 1:23.12, final 400m: 52.62, final 200m: 25.50, final 100m: 12.51
Hocker has a monster finish. But I think Jakob, injury-free and in peak shape, would've gradually turned up the heat with 3-4 laps remaining and running the kick out of Hocker.
In Hocker's win the heat was already on. They were 10 seconds ahead of pace compared to Jakob's fastest race, and yet Hocker STILL closed the final 400 faster than all but one of Jakob's 5000m wins, and a faster 200m than ALL of Jakob's wins. I think there's a strong case that Hocker would be the winner. And because of this, let's just say it'd be a very tight race and they're about the same level of dominance for finishing speed at their best.
Heat was already on but the entire field was still in it at the bell?
You’re right that context matters, championship races and rabbited races aren’t identical. But the point literally still stands: Jakob has already shown that he can both (a) close fast off slow/moderate early paces (1:50–1:51 in Paris/Budapest plus a fast last 2000 of 4:56) and (b) sustain a brutal pace from the gun and still finish strong. Florence wasn’t apples-to-oranges, it’s proof that he could come through 3k in 7:46 and still hammer the last 2k in 5:02, which is faster than Hocker’s 5:06 after a 7:52.
The bigger picture is this: nobody has yet found a race setup that puts Jakob at a disadvantage when he’s healthy. Tactical race? He’ll dust you in the last 800. Honest pace? He’s already run 12:48(4 years ago)/7:54/7:17/4:43/3:43/3:26. That’s why guys don’t push from 3k out when Jakob’s in the field, the data suggests it only makes things worse. So sure, Tokyo was different context, but the Florence data shows what Jakob looks like in that context too. That’s the scary part.
Sorry, your point doesn't stand because the races were so different. In Florence, Jakob didn't take the lead until the final homestretch. That's very different than suggesting he would take the lead at some point after a 7:52 3k split in a championship race to try to take the kick out of Hocker. He tried taking the kick out of everyone in the 1500m last year, and we saw how that turned out.
actually in Budapest and Paris he didn't lead either until the bell came. The famous burn-up many people believe here actually came from other people. If he really took the lead, that would be like 800 dude said, losing out on the benefit of drafting, though I think it would be closer to 0.5 per lap than 1 sec. Still, that would be a re-run of Paris 1500 as you said, if Hocker is in the race.
You’re right that context matters, championship races and rabbited races aren’t identical. But the point literally still stands: Jakob has already shown that he can both (a) close fast off slow/moderate early paces (1:50–1:51 in Paris/Budapest plus a fast last 2000 of 4:56) and (b) sustain a brutal pace from the gun and still finish strong. Florence wasn’t apples-to-oranges, it’s proof that he could come through 3k in 7:46 and still hammer the last 2k in 5:02, which is faster than Hocker’s 5:06 after a 7:52.
The bigger picture is this: nobody has yet found a race setup that puts Jakob at a disadvantage when he’s healthy. Tactical race? He’ll dust you in the last 800. Honest pace? He’s already run 12:48(4 years ago)/7:54/7:17/4:43/3:43/3:26. That’s why guys don’t push from 3k out when Jakob’s in the field, the data suggests it only makes things worse. So sure, Tokyo was different context, but the Florence data shows what Jakob looks like in that context too. That’s the scary part.
Sorry, your point doesn't stand because the races were so different. In Florence, Jakob didn't take the lead until the final homestretch. That's very different than suggesting he would take the lead at some point after a 7:52 3k split in a championship race to try to take the kick out of Hocker. He tried taking the kick out of everyone in the 1500m last year, and we saw how that turned out.
Now you’re just moving the goalposts. First it was “we don’t know what Jakob would do off 7:52/5:06.” Well, we do know, because he literally ran 7:46/5:02 in Florence en route to 12:48. That’s faster through 3k and faster over the last 2k than Hocker managed in Tokyo. Case closed. Whether Jakob personally takes the lead after 3k is irrelevant, the question is if he can survive and finish. The answer is obvious: yes, he can, because he’s already done better. And let’s not forget, this isn’t some one-off. He’s shown he can control from the front (Eugene), sit and kick (Florence, Budapest, Paris), or go long drive (London 2019, Silesia 3000m, all of his European Indoor 3000m Golds). Pick your context, he’s already proven it. Bringing up the 1500m is a red herring. That doesn’t erase the fact he’s a 3:26/7:17/12:48 guy who closes as hard or harder than Hocker in most setups in the 3000/5000 (which is the point of this thread). That’s why nobody wants to turn a 5k into a burn-up with Jakob in the field, the numbers say it only gets uglier.
Hocker gets credit for winning because he brought his A game to Tokyo. He planned his season well, didn't overdo it in training, and steadily built his fitness so he could deliver his best performance when it mattered most. Then he executed his race strategy, put himself in a position to win, and deployed his lethal kick to cross the finish line first.
Of course he does, and Jakob should get full credit as well for being able to do the same thing, three years in a row in the 5000m. It's why many believe that he would have won today.
Thanks for giving Hocker credit. I give Jakob a lot of credit for the way he ran in Tokyo. He ran a very smart race in the semi, and I admired how he took the lead in the final. It was very impressive, considering the circumstances.
That said, claiming that 2024 Jakob would have won in Tokyo is effectively discrediting Hocker. It's not cool.
Hocker had the opportunity to discredit Nader in the same way during his LRC interview, and he didn't do it. Gault asked Hocker what he thinks he could have done in the 1500m final, and Hocker said:
"I think I could have won, but you know, who am I to say that? Yeah, I thought I could win going into it, so of course. But, you never know how they're going to shake out. And don't want to discredit any of those guys. Those guys all earned their medals and don't want to discredit any of that."
That is the correct respectful response to the question posed in this thread.
Sorry, your point doesn't stand because the races were so different. In Florence, Jakob didn't take the lead until the final homestretch. That's very different than suggesting he would take the lead at some point after a 7:52 3k split in a championship race to try to take the kick out of Hocker. He tried taking the kick out of everyone in the 1500m last year, and we saw how that turned out.
Now you’re just moving the goalposts. First it was “we don’t know what Jakob would do off 7:52/5:06.” Well, we do know, because he literally ran 7:46/5:02 in Florence en route to 12:48. That’s faster through 3k and faster over the last 2k than Hocker managed in Tokyo. Case closed. Whether Jakob personally takes the lead after 3k is irrelevant, the question is if he can survive and finish. The answer is obvious: yes, he can, because he’s already done better. And let’s not forget, this isn’t some one-off. He’s shown he can control from the front (Eugene), sit and kick (Florence, Budapest, Paris), or go long drive (London 2019, Silesia 3000m, all of his European Indoor 3000m Golds). Pick your context, he’s already proven it. Bringing up the 1500m is a red herring. That doesn’t erase the fact he’s a 3:26/7:17/12:48 guy who closes as hard or harder than Hocker in most setups in the 3000/5000 (which is the point of this thread). That’s why nobody wants to turn a 5k into a burn-up with Jakob in the field, the numbers say it only gets uglier.
No, I've been very consistent. I stated very clearly on the last page: "We don't know for sure who would have won if Jakob in his 2024 form showed up to Tokyo, and we're not going to get answers from looking at very different prior championships nor from looking at prior time trials."
You keep trying to find answers from very different contexts in the past to try to demonstrate that a past version of Jakob would have beaten the current version of Hocker. It's futile. Those very different past contexts don't apply.
I think you're overrating the finish. Hobbyhurdler already posted this but let me show it again
"Jakob did 13:02.03 with a final 200m of 25.6 in London 2019. So almost as fast finishing time AND final 200m as Hocker today. And Jakob was only 18 at the time (Final 1000m was 2:25.8, final 600m was 1:23.3, final 400m was 53.6)"
So Jakob was....18 year olds....and he closed in a 53.6 with a final 200 of 25.6.....and you don't think he can match Hocker now nearly 7 years later? Oh my. Here is the race vid.
first, that's a DL race with no round, second, 53.6 was completely different from 52.6 going from 12th to 1st with a faster finish time. Looking through history, plenty of runners have run 53 in a 13:00 race, even Paul Chelimo did it, but there're only very few people have dropped a 52 (let alone in lane 2) in a 13:00 race (let alone sub-13).
You’re hung up on 52.6 vs 53.6, but you’re ignoring the context. Jakob’s 53.6/25.6 in London came when he was 18, running 13:02, and he attempted to front-run the entire last 400m. Conversely, that’s a very different effort than sitting, drafting, and then swinging wide in lane 2. Since then, he’s shown over and over he can close even harder in Budapest and Paris, plus a 5:02 last 2k in Florence off a 12:48 pace. He’s proven he belongs in the “52-last-lap off sub-13” club. So no, a tenth of a second and a lane-2 move doesn’t change the bigger picture. Jakob has already matched that type of finish, from the front, at 18, and has only gotten better since. That’s why people don’t want to force an honest race when he’s on the line at his best, it just gives him more ways to beat you.
Of course he does, and Jakob should get full credit as well for being able to do the same thing, three years in a row in the 5000m. It's why many believe that he would have won today.
Thanks for giving Hocker credit. I give Jakob a lot of credit for the way he ran in Tokyo. He ran a very smart race in the semi, and I admired how he took the lead in the final. It was very impressive, considering the circumstances.
That said, claiming that 2024 Jakob would have won in Tokyo is effectively discrediting Hocker. It's not cool.
Hocker had the opportunity to discredit Nader in the same way during his LRC interview, and he didn't do it. Gault asked Hocker what he thinks he could have done in the 1500m final, and Hocker said:
"I think I could have won, but you know, who am I to say that? Yeah, I thought I could win going into it, so of course. But, you never know how they're going to shake out. And don't want to discredit any of those guys. Those guys all earned their medals and don't want to discredit any of that."
That is the correct respectful response to the question posed in this thread.
Jakob isn’t saying he would’ve won, so I don’t see how the Cole interview is analogous at all.
Saying “it’s not cool” for fans to speculate on how a race would’ve played out if different people were in it is so lame.
Now you’re just moving the goalposts. First it was “we don’t know what Jakob would do off 7:52/5:06.” Well, we do know, because he literally ran 7:46/5:02 in Florence en route to 12:48. That’s faster through 3k and faster over the last 2k than Hocker managed in Tokyo. Case closed. Whether Jakob personally takes the lead after 3k is irrelevant, the question is if he can survive and finish. The answer is obvious: yes, he can, because he’s already done better. And let’s not forget, this isn’t some one-off. He’s shown he can control from the front (Eugene), sit and kick (Florence, Budapest, Paris), or go long drive (London 2019, Silesia 3000m, all of his European Indoor 3000m Golds). Pick your context, he’s already proven it. Bringing up the 1500m is a red herring. That doesn’t erase the fact he’s a 3:26/7:17/12:48 guy who closes as hard or harder than Hocker in most setups in the 3000/5000 (which is the point of this thread). That’s why nobody wants to turn a 5k into a burn-up with Jakob in the field, the numbers say it only gets uglier.
No, I've been very consistent. I stated very clearly on the last page: "We don't know for sure who would have won if Jakob in his 2024 form showed up to Tokyo, and we're not going to get answers from looking at very different prior championships nor from looking at prior time trials."
You keep trying to find answers from very different contexts in the past to try to demonstrate that a past version of Jakob would have beaten the current version of Hocker. It's futile. Those very different past contexts don't apply.
You’re not being “consistent,” you’re just making your argument unfalsifiable. By your logic, nothing Jakob has ever done can tell us anything about how he’d handle Hocker’s Tokyo splits, because every prior race is a “different context.” That’s not analysis. Track has always used prior races to assess what athletes are capable of in new situations. That’s why people point to Jakob's times when discussing his ceiling, and why Hocker’s 12:58 is rightly celebrated. If we dismiss every data point as irrelevant context, then we may as well never compare anyone across eras, races, or conditions. The Florence 12:48 wasn’t some random time trial, it directly answers the question of whether Jakob could handle a 7:52/5:06 finish. He’s literally done better (7:46/5:02). That’s not cherry-picking, that’s evidence. You can keep saying “we don’t know,” but the numbers all point in the same direction: a healthy Jakob has more ways to win than Hocker has shown. Nothing wrong with that. It seems like you are taking offense to the premise of the thread, which is fine. OP was rude in saying his win was an asterisk.
Jakob isn’t saying he would’ve won, so I don’t see how the Cole interview is analogous at all.
Saying “it’s not cool” for fans to speculate on how a race would’ve played out if different people were in it is so lame.
No, discrediting Hocker is lame. But if you insist, play it out in detail. Instead of looking at very different past contexts which don't apply to how the race was run in Tokyo, imagine inserting 2024 Jakob into Tokyo in the way the race actually transpired.
We know from Fisher's post-race interview that he was determined to make it an honest race. So let's pick up the race at the 3k mark where Fisher has the lead in 7:51. Where exactly do you envision Jakob at that point in the race, and what exactly do you think he does from there? Take us through it, in detail.
first, that's a DL race with no round, second, 53.6 was completely different from 52.6 going from 12th to 1st with a faster finish time. Looking through history, plenty of runners have run 53 in a 13:00 race, even Paul Chelimo did it, but there're only very few people have dropped a 52 (let alone in lane 2) in a 13:00 race (let alone sub-13).
You’re hung up on 52.6 vs 53.6, but you’re ignoring the context. Jakob’s 53.6/25.6 in London came when he was 18, running 13:02, and he attempted to front-run the entire last 400m. Conversely, that’s a very different effort than sitting, drafting, and then swinging wide in lane 2. Since then, he’s shown over and over he can close even harder in Budapest and Paris, plus a 5:02 last 2k in Florence off a 12:48 pace. He’s proven he belongs in the “52-last-lap off sub-13” club. So no, a tenth of a second and a lane-2 move doesn’t change the bigger picture. Jakob has already matched that type of finish, from the front, at 18, and has only gotten better since. That’s why people don’t want to force an honest race when he’s on the line at his best, it just gives him more ways to beat you.
If you think running a clean lane 1 is even comparable to running wide in lane 2, I don't you what to say.
Except they did, that's why I said, the famous burn-up wasn't even attributable to Jakob in Budapest and Paris, because that actually came from other runners. The top 6 finishers were all under sub-4 1600m in Paris.