We also will be doing a live watch praty and reaction show starting 5 minutes before the race (so 1:55 pm ET) and then going on for as long as we need to afterwards:
On NPR, Rodger Kram from CU Boulder this morning expressed concern about the wind. They discussed the possibility of pushing it back later in the evening or to Friday or Saturday, but noted the problem of getting fans excited and losing enthusiasm for the event if they change at the last minute.
He also suggested they could call it off after two laps if she’s not on ideal pace. Hadn’t thought of that damp squib of a possibility.
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Too busy to search for it now but do we know what time the gun will go off? I'll be in a meeting and can duck out for a few minutes. But I don't want to leave at 7.15 and then find that's only the build up and she actually goes 30 minutes later.
The more I think about this, the more I think it's possible even if the wind prevents it happening tonight. Just look at what has happened when a woman capable of an extraordinary performance gets good pacing for an entire race: Gidey runs 62 and Chepngetich runs 2:09. Both of which are solid times for a pro male. If anything, 4 minutes is quite a soft time for a pro male. So with consistent pacing for the whole race, it might make enough of a difference
Too busy to search for it now but do we know what time the gun will go off? I'll be in a meeting and can duck out for a few minutes. But I don't want to leave at 7.15 and then find that's only the build up and she actually goes 30 minutes later.
When the study claiming that she could run sub-4 came out in February, I did a thorough read. My conclusion was that the model was the most possible optimistic interpretation of what drafting would do - to the point of being completely unrealistic. So, she needs to shave off 2-3 seconds, at very minimum, from fitness alone - and still, that would require 5 seconds benefit from pacing and drafting. That's a tall order for a 31 year old 3x Olympic Gold medalist who is showing diminishing returns the past few years.
Kipchoge improved 1.6% off his already astounding best in the Sub2. She has to do nearly double that. I just see this being a setup for "failure" (especially since the media hasn't hyped this as she's chasing a new world record, but specficially sub-4).
I agree with others who see her being on track for 800m or 1000m, but after that it's going to be really hard.
Is there a chance she does it? Yeah, I'll say a 5% chance. It's possible, but really unlikely.
I’m extremely skeptical and would be flabbergasted if it happened, but I was trying to figure the optimistic case on my run this morning and ended up thinking about those coaches’ quotes about why western athletes have been taking off lately. I realize the massive holes with the following case, which is in addition to the perfect pacing/drafting, shoes, kit, etc., but it’s the only way I can see it coming close:
(1) Maybe she hasn’t been using bicarb, and maybe it is that big of a deal. For a variety of reasons, 800m guys have leveled up so fast and so much that a 1:41 American record is only 4th at the Olympics. Jess Hull is a 3:50 woman, and Georgia Bell is a medalist right behind her. Let’s set skepticism aside and assume they got there with better training and extensive bicarb use. If Faith ran 3:49/4:07 without it and has now been using it for every workout + the attempt, that could be a good chunk of time. Maybe 3+ seconds? Idk, not a scientist, but the recent 800 and 1500 improvements suggest it could be more helpful than I’d previously thought. I guess toss another boost in this category to having another year of training more/faster in supershoes.
(2) Training specifically for a time trial like this probably isn’t something she’s done extensively before. I’m sure she’s spent some time training for WRs, but her prior records came in the context of what I’d assume was a focus on the Olympics and world champs golds. She’d obviously never aimed at 4:00 pace until now. If she can focus entirely on fitness without worrying about sharpening a kick and tactics and such, maybe that’s worth a little time.
And I guess in a world where 31-year-old Habz and 18ish-year-old Koech are 3:27 guys without fancy pacing and Josh Hoey is a 3:29 guy in an off event 1-2 years after being a 1:47 800m man . . . what the hell do I know anyway.
There is no chance man. 0%. I am around her level currently, 3'48 1500m this season. My fastest 1k in training is 2'26 and my fastest 3000m is 8'10. There is no way in hell I go sub 4' in the mile. Not a chance. Having a pacer from start to finish doesnt make people run 5 seconds faster magically
I asked earlier in the thread whether we think she will a) fall off the pace intentionally and still run a fast time, or b) stay on the pace as long as possible and risk a spectacular blow up. (Yes, there is a "c" that she will run strong and come close or actually break 4:00, but I'm not sure anyone is predicting that.)
So, you are the perfect person to ask... if you hit 1k in 2:28, what do you think would happen over the next 609 meters if you tried to continue to hold the pace as long as possible?
I'm genuinely curious what you think that would look like for you, as someone around her current level.
My 1500 PR is literally 3:49.04 and my mile is 4:07 mid, so I feel like I am pretty qualified to answer here. If I came through 1000 in 2:29, I think I could get to the 1209 in 3:01 and then would totally explode. Let’s say I was able to get everything out of myself even though it’s demotivating to feel like you are rigging the last lap of a race, I think I’d run a 67/8. Admittedly, I don’t have Faith’s mindset (or pacers) so who knows?
Too busy to search for it now but do we know what time the gun will go off? I'll be in a meeting and can duck out for a few minutes. But I don't want to leave at 7.15 and then find that's only the build up and she actually goes 30 minutes later.
7.15 Paris time.
No reason it should be late.
I think we have 45 minutes of build up first. Race is at 2 PM ET, 8 PM Paris Time.
Like a manning cast for Monday night football. You can see me react to the race and talk about it. Only difference is I won't be embedding the stream. Then we'll go straight into our normal post-race reaction show.
Had anyone heard which lane she will run in? If you're going to make any significant drafting benefits, it would make sense to run in lane 4 with a perfect V formation as per breaking 2?
Not the most intelligent pacing. You always want to even pace and finish strong to get the best result. Trying to save time at the begining almost never goes well
Ironic that someone calling them out for not being intelligent doesn't realize that the mile is 1609 meters. So when the pacer hits 400 in 59.6 - that's 3:59.74 mile pace. So basically it's dead even pacing as Kipyegon would be right behind that.
If you're not into it then simply don't watch or read about it, no one's forcing it on you. And it's not like this I taking opportunity from someone else or distracting from other performances at a DL or some other meet.
This ^ is spot on. All the haters and complainers should just do something else today and read a book instead of this thread. I saw a car yesterday with an elaborate sticker on the window of a monster truck crushing stick figure people and the words "nobody cares about your stick figure family." Really? Yet you went to the trouble of buying that decal and putting it on your own car! If you don't care, why did you click this thread?
BTW, I don't think she'll get it but I think it is interesting as hell. We always used to say things like, "what if the best milers in the world were forced to all race 800m?" Then GST did that and people on this forum complained. We used to ask, "how fast could a person run under perfect conditions?" and then Kipchoge did that and people here complained. Theoreticals are interesting.
So, she (and Nike) are trying something different instead of running 10 more DL races and winning all of them. I am stoked. I wish there were more things like this. It would make the sport a lot more interesting. My kids will watch this race today. They don't need or want to watch every Diamond League race. Can the haters figure out why?
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My 1500 PR is literally 3:49.04 and my mile is 4:07 mid, so I feel like I am pretty qualified to answer here. If I came through 1000 in 2:29, I think I could get to the 1209 in 3:01 and then would totally explode. Let’s say I was able to get everything out of myself even though it’s demotivating to feel like you are rigging the last lap of a race, I think I’d run a 67/8. Admittedly, I don’t have Faith’s mindset (or pacers) so who knows?
Great post. What do you think you would have run with eleven pacers breaking the wind for you? What if you had been offered $100,000 Dollars? How much faster could you have run? We all have to question, on some level, the notion that we really gave 100%. Could you have gone 1 second faster for a million Dollars? Maybe?
Weather looks suboptimal. 27C and gusts over 20mph. I think they'll just use this as a sort of proof of concept and try again later in the summer.
I'm not against this sort of exhibition of what humans can potentially achieve. It's not what I love the sport, but it's an interesting goal for an athlete that has nothing else to achieve on her event. I wouldn't want to see Jakob doing this as he still has WRs to chase, but Kipyegon is already the GOAT, so what's left for her?
If you're not into it then simply don't watch or read about it, no one's forcing it on you. And it's not like this I taking opportunity from someone else or distracting from other performances at a DL or some other meet.
They have the option to post-pone it. I think they had like a 3 day window.
ALex Hutchinson said they want they are "hoping for wind speeds of less than about 7.5 miles per hour, humidity of less than 50 percent, and somewhere between 20 and 60 percent cloud cover."
Well Apple weather says it will be 7 mph winds at 8 pm. If they even waited a couple hours the wind would be even less. Humidity will be 62% and dew point 62.
I guess that dew point is higher than normal but it's only a mile and John Kellogg always repeats to me - Moist air is lighter and less dense than dry air.
Some of the greatest performances in track and field history have come right after major storms - Mexico City.
On NPR, Rodger Kram from CU Boulder this morning expressed concern about the wind. They discussed the possibility of pushing it back later in the evening or to Friday or Saturday, but noted the problem of getting fans excited and losing enthusiasm for the event if they change at the last minute.
He also suggested they could call it off after two laps if she’s not on ideal pace. Hadn’t thought of that damp squib of a possibility.
Lol. This turning into amateur hour. They've had the weather forecast for days. Push it back an hour or two and the wind isn't an issue. Postpone it untl tmw.
But le me be clear about one thing - you don't call it off after 2 laps.
If someone falls or the pacing is off on the first lap, sure stop and start again.
Zero percent chance she quits at 800. That honestly would be embarrassing. Now if you want to stop it at 2 laps and then re-do tmw, ok. But quitting at 800? Embarrassing.
The more I think about this, the more I think it's possible even if the wind prevents it happening tonight. Just look at what has happened when a woman capable of an extraordinary performance gets good pacing for an entire race: Gidey runs 62 and Chepngetich runs 2:09. Both of which are solid times for a pro male. If anything, 4 minutes is quite a soft time for a pro male. So with consistent pacing for the whole race, it might make enough of a difference
The problem with your theory is women are less good at the shorter events. According to the WA scoring tables, the 2:09:56 WR in the marathon (1312 points) is equivalent to a 4:04.41 in the mile. For the men, they have a 2:09:56 (1131 points) marathon equivalent to 3:55.49 in the mile.
I really want to be optimistic but I'm really having a hard time. She hasn't run the mile a lot because it's a weird distance but she's run the 1500m a lot. She's gone below 3:50 twice, and if she went 3:49 through the first 1500 she'd have to run basically a world record final hundred meters (plus). It just feels like asking for a lot, because those 3:49s would have been on perfect days too, and on any given day you could only feel 90%, or the weather could be slightly imperfect, etc.
I asked earlier in the thread whether we think she will a) fall off the pace intentionally and still run a fast time, or b) stay on the pace as long as possible and risk a spectacular blow up. (Yes, there is a "c" that she will run strong and come close or actually break 4:00, but I'm not sure anyone is predicting that.)
So, you are the perfect person to ask... if you hit 1k in 2:28, what do you think would happen over the next 609 meters if you tried to continue to hold the pace as long as possible?
I'm genuinely curious what you think that would look like for you, as someone around her current level.
My 1500 PR is literally 3:49.04 and my mile is 4:07 mid, so I feel like I am pretty qualified to answer here. If I came through 1000 in 2:29, I think I could get to the 1209 in 3:01 and then would totally explode. Let’s say I was able to get everything out of myself even though it’s demotivating to feel like you are rigging the last lap of a race, I think I’d run a 67/8. Admittedly, I don’t have Faith’s mindset (or pacers) so who knows?
My 1500 PR is literally 3:49.04 and my mile is 4:07 mid, so I feel like I am pretty qualified to answer here. If I came through 1000 in 2:29, I think I could get to the 1209 in 3:01 and then would totally explode. Let’s say I was able to get everything out of myself even though it’s demotivating to feel like you are rigging the last lap of a race, I think I’d run a 67/8. Admittedly, I don’t have Faith’s mindset (or pacers) so who knows?
Great post. What do you think you would have run with eleven pacers breaking the wind for you? What if you had been offered $100,000 Dollars? How much faster could you have run? We all have to question, on some level, the notion that we really gave 100%. Could you have gone 1 second faster for a million Dollars? Maybe?
NO NO NO NO.
This is the biggest fallacy of all to me. I couldn't believe on the podcast they guy was talking to weldon about how "she's never trained for a time trial." What? She's run a ton of WR attempts.
People instinctively know how to give it their all. A HSer digging deep to break 5:00 in the mile is no different than Kipyegon digging deep to break 4:00 in the mile.
I'm supposed to believe that the greatest female mid-d runner of all time has never given it her all before? At the age of 31, she's finally going to figure out how to give it her all. That's INSULTING to Kipyegon.
I had a guy at Cornell who was anemic and terrible for 3 years. He once like ran like a 4;40 mile in a college race. His senior year, in like the 2nd race of the season, he was the last guy into the fast heat of the 1k at Penn State. He just picked guys off and beat an NCAA qualifier with a 1:48 pb. I'd NEVER seen him do anything competitive in 3 years.
But once he was in shape, and not anemic, he knew how to race and dig deep.
Last week, we saw Kejelcha and Blanks all hit 3k in 7:38. They didn't dig deep and break the WR. The blew up.
Any Dartmouth alums on here? I know they used to run a downhll mile at the end of the season. How much downhll is it?
I am going to talk to weldon and encourage LetsRun to sponsor a downhill women's mile at the end of season. Get some cash. I really want a woman to break 4:00 so for the rest of eternity in every article, every wikipedia page, they'll have to write, "*** was the first female to break 4 for the mile. She did it on a downhill course at the 2025 LetsRun.com mile in ***."