These are the splits from Tokyo 2021. What's jarring about this race is how much of a perfect pacemaker Cheruiyot was. It was essentially a diamond league race. He paced Jakob exactly to his strengths. Jakob's 400m splits were 56.2 (cheruiyot then takes over and leads him to) 55.8 - 55.5 - final 300m of about 40.7-40.8 (while passing Cheruiyot on a bend so probably faster).
I don't understand how Jakob didn't get this in paris but he does best when the pace GRADUALLY winds up. That 3:28.32 race in Tokyo was astounding as he was only 20 years old at the time and he didn't even improve upon it until two years later. It was an all time mark for a 20 year old. I think the biggest thing was the pace regulation Cheruiyot gave him. Jakob could back off when he needed to and run right under his threshold for the first 1100m. He never split faster than 13.8-13.9 seconds in a 100m segment before then. In contrast, he opened the 2nd 100m in Paris in 13.3 for an overall first 400m in 54.8. That immediately put him in oxygen debt.
I also think running this way is a HUGE detriment to guys like Hocker, Nuguse, and Kerr when Jakob does it right. Time and time again, I've seen Jakob put seconds against these guys when the pace gradually goes up in the middle 800m. There are just so many examples.
Monaco 2024:From 400m - 1200m, Jakob runs the middle 800m in 1:50.7 Nuguse and Cheruiyot are already meters behind. Final 300 of 40.2. Nuguse and Cheruiyot more like 41 mid.
From 400m - 1200m, 1:51 for the middle 800m. Hocker and Kessler finish almost 2-3 seconds back.
1:51.1 middle 800, 40.2 final 300m, Habz and Kipsang never in contention.
1:51.2 middle 800m, 41.05 final 300m (He put in a little too much effort from 900m-1100m, splitting 13.7 - 13.6, so the final 300 was a little slower, but that just proves my point in pace regulation.
Ok....so what was his middle 800m in Paris? 1:52.4. That was way slower than he has ever done since maybe his junior years? That opening 400m screwed him over. The guys behind him capitalized on this (Kerr split 1:52.6 from 400-1200m) and used their 800m chops to run past him while he was just going backwards in the final 100m.
I can guarantee with probably 90% certainty that if Jakob had run maybe 56 - 55.7 - 55.6 to that 1200m split of 2:47.3 in Paris, he would have had a much faster close. I can also MAYBE guarantee if he had run closer to 1:50 in that middle 800m, Nuguse and Hocker would not have closed as fast in that final 300m. In fact, they probably would have finished in 3:28 - 3:29 rather than 3:27. The way Jakob runs his races just aren't in their skillset, physiologically.
Now, does any of this matter? Probably not. Habz just ran 3:27 mid to low, and Ingebrigtsen probably does not have that fitness gap anymore. He would probably need to break El G 3:26 this season to convince me. Maybe 3:25.5? It's just a shame Jakob didn't realize this in Eugene, Budapest (Sickness, but that middle 800m segment was 1:54 so it further proves my point), and finally Paris. Highly likely he would have been a 2x OC. Maybe it was nerves, but everything before Paris pointed to the fact that he performs better when he runs the middle of the race faster than what he opens with. That 54.8 was really the nail in the coffin.
I agree with the sentiment here that his best way to win now is probably a fast final 1k while gradually winding up the pace. However, there is way more room for error in that approach. He has to time the wind up perfectly so that his final 100m is his fastest. If at any point in that wind up he crosses his threshold (put in an unneccessary surge) he can be going backwards just like he did in Paris. We'll see. The biggest thing now is just seeing how much that injury has taken out of him, and whether he even progresses.