Then why doesn’t he give himself those same odds in the 5K?
Maybe because the race is more than three times as long?
It’s because he knows he has the best kick in the 5K. He would hang out in the back in the 1500 if he had the best kick in the 1500 like he does in the 5K.
Jakob runs the way he runs because he feels it gives him the greatest odds. Im sure in his head, he thinks if he goes out hard from the gun, it's at worse a 2 man race. He found out the hard way that it was actually a 4 man race. When you run a 3:35, you are making it an 8 man race. I'm sure he fully believes he can win that 8 man race, but the 2 man, or even 4 man race gives him the best odds.
The notion that he can't kick or doesn't believe he can kick is flawed logic.
He absolutely does not believe he can win the 8 man race.
When you truly believe you can kick, going to the lead is kryptonite *unless* it’s going to the lead to slow the pace down.
Jakob can kick in the purest sense - he can accelerate at the end of the race.
Jakob cannot kick in the sense we are talking about -the ability win a championship because the best kick.
Maybe because the race is more than three times as long?
It’s because he knows he has the best kick in the 5K. He would hang out in the back in the 1500 if he had the best kick in the 1500 like he does in the 5K.
Jakob runs the way he runs because he feels it gives him the greatest odds. Im sure in his head, he thinks if he goes out hard from the gun, it's at worse a 2 man race. He found out the hard way that it was actually a 4 man race. When you run a 3:35, you are making it an 8 man race. I'm sure he fully believes he can win that 8 man race, but the 2 man, or even 4 man race gives him the best odds.
The notion that he can't kick or doesn't believe he can kick is flawed logic.
He absolutely does not believe he can win the 8 man race.
When you truly believe you can kick, going to the lead is kryptonite *unless* it’s going to the lead to slow the pace down.
Jakob can kick in the purest sense - he can accelerate at the end of the race.
Jakob cannot kick in the sense we are talking about -the ability win a championship because the best kick.
His acceleration at the end of a race doesn't match that of other runners who may have less endurance than he does. It is glaringly obvious, except to his fans, that over shorter distances he does not have the sprint other runners possess because he is preeminently an endurance guy - but he does have better finishing speed than most 5k guys.
My issue in these finals, is that if Jakob is not the pacesetter, nobody else will do it, the first lap will be slow, and that immediately let's all the kickers into the race.
I think he has to front run to ensure a fast race, and then hope that his execution is perfect and he gets the win.
This is false. Yared stated in post race interviews that he was ready to take the pace but Jacob went so hard from the gun he didn’t have to.
as long as it’s not Rio slow, JI needs to run the El G wind up race. Gun to tape has proven not to work.
Jakob runs the way he runs because he feels it gives him the greatest odds. Im sure in his head, he thinks if he goes out hard from the gun, it's at worse a 2 man race. He found out the hard way that it was actually a 4 man race. When you run a 3:35, you are making it an 8 man race. I'm sure he fully believes he can win that 8 man race, but the 2 man, or even 4 man race gives him the best odds.
The notion that he can't kick or doesn't believe he can kick is flawed logic.
He absolutely does not believe he can win the 8 man race.
When you truly believe you can kick, going to the lead is kryptonite *unless* it’s going to the lead to slow the pace down.
Jakob can kick in the purest sense - he can accelerate at the end of the race.
Jakob cannot kick in the sense we are talking about -the ability win a championship because the best kick.
another person who doesn't understand odds or logic.
Last 100m though is a lot slower than the last 100m of 3 time WC Noah Lyles….
Nobody doubts that JI is the best time trailer we have seen since El G. Let him follow someone at sub 56s pace for 1200m and he is almost unbeatable. What isn’t as clear is if the pace is more like 60s if he can summon that 50s last lap. Or run a sub 1:48 last 800m.
When Jakob did his 3:27.14 in Silesia, his final 100m was covered in 13.3
His 3:30.37 in Brussels had a final 100m of 12.9
His semi-final in Budapest (3:34.98) had a final 100m of 12.47
And in Lausanne last year, it seemed like Jakob had no problem outkicking both Hocker and Kessler by a comfortable margin. Pretty close between the three of them with 150m remaining, and he still beat Hocker with 2.02s and Kessler with 2.64s.
Jakob is not the slowpoke that so many makes him out to be.
Regarding the semi-final in Budapest (3:34.98) I decided to check it out again.
The splits from IAAF says: That his final 800, 400m, 300m, 200m, and 100m were covered in:
1:48.10, 50.63, 38.34, 25.44, 12.47. Jakob ran really fast but not 50.63-lap fast
I hand timed it a couple of times (kind of hard as the camera zooms in when they hit the bell, really annoying) The first time I timed it at full speed, the second time at half-speed (and the divided the time with 2), and the third time I timed the video at 0.25x speed. (The slower the video, the smaller the margin of error). Here are the results
1st time, full videospeed: Final 800m: 1:48.7, final 400m: 52.10, final 300m: 38.60, final 200m: 25.36, final 100m: 12.68
2nd time, 0.5x videospeed: final 400m: 52.15, final 300m: 38.74, final 200m: 25.45, final 100m: 12.69
3rd time, 0.25x vidoespeed: final 400m: 52.145, final 300m: 38.59 final 200m: 25.48, final 100m: 12.61
So while the splits are a bit too fast, it was still a really solid close by Jakob. A sudden burst of speed from him, which I can't remember him doing in other races (at least in recent years) But most of his races are him going sub-3:31, so that makes the finishing dynamics different.
(There was also a couple of other factors:
1. Jakob didn't really accelerate before the 1250m mark
2. He ran the last bend in lane 2
3. He showboated/pumped the crowd up with 100m remaining)
There are some other errors from the Budapest splits that I've noticed
It says Kerr's final lap in the final was 52.77, when in reality it was 53.4ish. Jakob's final lap was 53.76, and Kerr did NOT gain a full second on Jakob in the last lap (He was right behind him at 1100m. Kerr did 3:29.38, Jakob did 3:29.65)
It says Laros' (3:31.25) final lap was 52.96. I got him at around 55.2
I don't know the reason behind these errors, but it is a bit annoying.
When Jakob did his 3:27.14 in Silesia, his final 100m was covered in 13.3
His 3:30.37 in Brussels had a final 100m of 12.9
His semi-final in Budapest (3:34.98) had a final 100m of 12.47
And in Lausanne last year, it seemed like Jakob had no problem outkicking both Hocker and Kessler by a comfortable margin. Pretty close between the three of them with 150m remaining, and he still beat Hocker with 2.02s and Kessler with 2.64s.
Jakob is not the slowpoke that so many makes him out to be.
Regarding the semi-final in Budapest (3:34.98) I decided to check it out again.
The splits from IAAF says: That his final 800, 400m, 300m, 200m, and 100m were covered in:
1:48.10, 50.63, 38.34, 25.44, 12.47. Jakob ran really fast but not 50.63-lap fast
I hand timed it a couple of times (kind of hard as the camera zooms in when they hit the bell, really annoying) The first time I timed it at full speed, the second time at half-speed (and the divided the time with 2), and the third time I timed the video at 0.25x speed. (The slower the video, the smaller the margin of error). Here are the results
1st time, full videospeed: Final 800m: 1:48.7, final 400m: 52.10, final 300m: 38.60, final 200m: 25.36, final 100m: 12.68
2nd time, 0.5x videospeed: final 400m: 52.15, final 300m: 38.74, final 200m: 25.45, final 100m: 12.69
3rd time, 0.25x vidoespeed: final 400m: 52.145, final 300m: 38.59 final 200m: 25.48, final 100m: 12.61
So while the splits are a bit too fast, it was still a really solid close by Jakob. A sudden burst of speed from him, which I can't remember him doing in other races (at least in recent years) But most of his races are him going sub-3:31, so that makes the finishing dynamics different.
(There was also a couple of other factors:
1. Jakob didn't really accelerate before the 1250m mark
2. He ran the last bend in lane 2
3. He showboated/pumped the crowd up with 100m remaining)
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