I will be shocked if both Fossil Ridge and Lone Peak don’t get an at-large.
I am also predicting that two California teams will also get a girls at-large.
Not sure anyone would argue too hard against Fossil Ridge, but if Lone Peak took an at-large this year, it would only be because of their history. LP lost their #1 and #3 from last year, and last year they were significantly closer to the top 2 (in average time and in points) when they got an at-large last year. Their 122 points in 2023 NXR-SW, fell to 160 this year has to hurt their case.
And the fact that Southwest girls teams went 1-4 at NXR last year and Lone Peak was part of that group, and Lone Peak was somewhat close to 3rd place
Not sure anyone would argue too hard against Fossil Ridge, but if Lone Peak took an at-large this year, it would only be because of their history. LP lost their #1 and #3 from last year, and last year they were significantly closer to the top 2 (in average time and in points) when they got an at-large last year. Their 122 points in 2023 NXR-SW, fell to 160 this year has to hurt their case.
And the fact that Southwest girls teams went 1-4 at NXR last year and Lone Peak was part of that group, and Lone Peak was somewhat close to 3rd place
Hold your horses. Taylorsville just got 4th in the Southwest. The only teams that Rocky has lost to this year are CDA, Jesuit OR, Herriman, and Taylorsville. The first 3 autoqualified. And Taylorsville in going to be getting an at-large.
I wouldn't call Rocky not getting an at-large a done deal yet...
Wins are wins and losses are losses. Who did Rocky beat that makes them deserve a bid?
Rocky also lost by a lot to Taylorsville, and it seems everyone rooting for them has it all hinging on if Great Oak were to be a top 2 team in California.
I feel like even if Great Oak is third, they will get the nod over Rocky, just like in 2022. They didn't run their full squad, and if they get third, they are clearly an improving team where Rocky is flat to regressing. When you factor in weather, Rocky ran either equal to or worse than they did at Firman. Firman was over 80 degrees and NXR was in the 40's, and they only averaged 6 seconds faster as a team.
I'm calling at large berths go to American Fork, Taylorsville, Vandegrift (they beat the 2nd place NXR South team head to head this season), and whichever team gets 3rd in California. California is virtually a lock to get an at large every year because whoever gets third will have either beaten an AQ that year or be a team that is getting hot at the end.
That is absolute nonsense, for any competitive runner it is incredibly hard to hold back and tempo a race, and unless you have evidence to support that fact it is a fairly useless assertion.
Bowdoin is a monster, it’s incredibly hilly from 700m/800m in until 2.5k. That combined with mud adds significant variability which makes fair SRs extremely hard. You can look at the state meet vs NXR times to see the average individual qualifier is running 60s-70s slower than the state meet. My point also isn’t to say Bethlehem is a beast, don’t discount them blah blah blah, because Union Catholic crushed them on the merge. My point is just that SRs aren’t an objective measure and shouldn’t be treated as such.
Didnt California get completely embarrassed at Woodbridge this year? Were those not the top teams that competed there or have teams improved that much? CDA, Crater & Mercer Island from the NW beat all of the Cali teams at that meet.
Didnt California get completely embarrassed at Woodbridge this year? Were those not the top teams that competed there or have teams improved that much? CDA, Crater & Mercer Island from the NW beat all of the Cali teams at that meet.
Jesuit CA wasn’t there but they took second over Crater at Clovis.
Beckman won Clovis but they had a subpar race at Woodbridge.
Great Oak has Westin Brown back but he will need to become #1 on the team for Great Oak to autoqualify
I will be shocked if both Fossil Ridge and Lone Peak don’t get an at-large.
I am also predicting that two California teams will also get a girls at-large.
Not sure anyone would argue too hard against Fossil Ridge, but if Lone Peak took an at-large this year, it would only be because of their history. LP lost their #1 and #3 from last year, and last year they were significantly closer to the top 2 (in average time and in points) when they got an at-large last year. Their 122 points in 2023 NXR-SW, fell to 160 this year has to hurt their case.
Lone Peak only lost to Fossil Ridge by 4 points. It’s not like they were blown out by over 50 points and barely placed 4th. It would not only be because of their history, it was a very close race on Saturday in undoubtedly THE deepest region. In any case, they were 4th at NXN last year after being 4th at NXR. Not giving an at large to Lone Peak does not make any sense.
Didnt California get completely embarrassed at Woodbridge this year? Were those not the top teams that competed there or have teams improved that much? CDA, Crater & Mercer Island from the NW beat all of the Cali teams at that meet.
The top 3 teams are all much better now than they were at Woodbridge.
Jesuit and Beckman showed out at Clovis, and GO has their full lineup now after months of speculation and had a good team average at CIF finals (divisionals).
The rankings are a bit fluid, but those 3 are the safe top 3 for now.
None of these teams at all are NXN podium contenders, but I still could see 2 CA teams in the top 10 at NXN. It isn't as hopeless as it looked 3 months ago.
Who cares about Woodbridge, that was in September. The object is to peak for the championship season. Hello Waldo
This is why I think NW over CA. Even though rocky mountain didn't do sh*t, and has the absolute worst resume. Mercer Island, Crater and CDA repped Northwest well at Woodbridge.
Saratoga’s varsity is mostly 8th and 9th graders. Hard to tell their future from this because as I mentioned, many of Saratoga’s NXN underclassmen regress later on
Saratoga runners basically don’t regress at all. I don’t know if you’re confusing them with FM.
If you look at any of the toga scorers from the powerhouse teams of the past few years, virtually every girl made MASSIVE improvements from the beginning to end of high school or were already top 50 in the country in 9th grade and maintained. (Bush, the Wheeler twins, Belisle, Hart, Kurto, Chmiel).
If a girl goes 35 at nationals her freshman year and then 35 her senior year I don’t consider that regression because she’s already at her top potential. (I don’t know if this is what you’re referencing).
To address the posts above though, Toga graduated basically everyone and still put together a top 50 nationally ranked team with 8th and 9th graders. They’re in a rebuild year and will be a powerhouse soon enough.
And they also have some girls who ran at NXN in the past that were on JV this year - Turner (Sr), and sophomores Ang, Wilding, and Berglund.
Plainfield North out of the Midwest placed 3rd at NXR. They’ve had a great year, won conference, regional, sectional, and 2nd in the IHSA STATE meet behind Downers Grove North ( who after NXR will probably or should probably be ranked top 3 in nation). Plainfield North ran the 5th fastest time (top 5 guys) in IHSA history at the state meet this year!
If Bethlehem ran their worst of the season, they were probably tempoing to get ready for NXN to try to win it. Just like CBA
Bethlehem was slower per runner than Union Catholic in the NE regional race. Same course, same day.
Bethlehem, the #1 team in the UNITED STATES had nobody under 18:47 at an NXR race? I'm sure it's a tough course because Macchia didn't even run under 18:00 and she ran a 10:06 3200... but a team that averages 19:00+ on any course probably isn't the best team in the country.
Biased NY ranking guy who put them at the top spot is going to have a tough time defending them this week. Crunch all your numbers and show me your speed ratings, but Mtn Vista and Trabuco Hills (now with a healthy Holly Barker) are the top 2 teams in the country.
Plainfield North out of the Midwest placed 3rd at NXR. They’ve had a great year, won conference, regional, sectional, and 2nd in the IHSA STATE meet behind Downers Grove North ( who after NXR will probably or should probably be ranked top 3 in nation). Plainfield North ran the 5th fastest time (top 5 guys) in IHSA history at the state meet this year!
Plainfield North raced in 0 big races and only raced in Illiois. relying on downersgrove to be a top team isn't a good look
I’ve been reading a bunch of websites and the requirements for the at large bids. I noticed that Saratoga has beaten Shen a few times this season as well as at Sectionals in the merge. I went to watch the NXR NY races, and noticed that those girls were pretty close to Shen. I could be wrong, but I wouldn’t say that there completely out of it.
I’ve been reading a bunch of websites and the requirements for the at large bids. I noticed that Saratoga has beaten Shen a few times this season as well as at Sectionals in the merge. I went to watch the NXR NY races, and noticed that those girls were pretty close to Shen. I could be wrong, but I wouldn’t say that there completely out of it.
They were pretty far back. Given all the advantages of being able to run an additional grade level and only having to face their state to qualify means it is is time to give other regions a chance.
I’ve been reading a bunch of websites and the requirements for the at large bids. I noticed that Saratoga has beaten Shen a few times this season as well as at Sectionals in the merge. I went to watch the NXR NY races, and noticed that those girls were pretty close to Shen. I could be wrong, but I wouldn’t say that there completely out of it.
In other regions there were smaller differences between second and third place teams.
On the girls side, why is all the talk about whether or not the Southwest should get 2 spots or if California should get 2 spots (despite not having raced their state meet yet), aside from one post about Bridgeland TX?
Why isn't anyone talking about the Southeast girls? I thought they ran very well at NXR. I'm not sure if the Southeast #3/4 or Southwest #3/4 are better this year, but for the conversation to only be about the Southwest and California seems strange. I haven't look that closely at the California girls teams yet, but just based off of the Clovis invite I'm not sure why anyone from Cali except Buchanan should really be considered ahead of the Southeast or Southwest teams. Were there multiple other teams not at Clovis that are better than JSerra or Corona, or have those teams (and someone else) gotten notably better since then?
Did Webb School of Knoxville beat any autoqualifiers?
On the girls side, why is all the talk about whether or not the Southwest should get 2 spots or if California should get 2 spots (despite not having raced their state meet yet), aside from one post about Bridgeland TX?
Why isn't anyone talking about the Southeast girls? I thought they ran very well at NXR. I'm not sure if the Southeast #3/4 or Southwest #3/4 are better this year, but for the conversation to only be about the Southwest and California seems strange. I haven't look that closely at the California girls teams yet, but just based off of the Clovis invite I'm not sure why anyone from Cali except Buchanan should really be considered ahead of the Southeast or Southwest teams. Were there multiple other teams not at Clovis that are better than JSerra or Corona, or have those teams (and someone else) gotten notably better since then?
Did Webb School of Knoxville beat any autoqualifiers?
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