people forget about the africans. one of those guys with their A game can be leading into the final straight, though based on heats and form, this scenario while very possible is not likely.
kerr and jacob are in WR shape, for the mile at a minimum and probably the 1500 due to the fast track, shoes and unprecidented depth of the field, where 329 loses meaning.
the calculation is relatively simple, jacob would have been peaking for the olympics, and looks some 1 second better than a month ago.
kerr has put in work and stands to be a couple of seconds better than Pre mile at a minum. combined with his 2 mile, he should nearly in top form after the heats, as will be Jacob the WR holder in 2,3K.
if the Afrincans take it out - 800m in 150, then we're talking about an all time epic race, where the win is 325, and everybody runs else a PR by 2,3 seconds. given odds better than 1 in 5 I would bet this scenario, for the 325.
these types of perfect storms come along, every 20 years or less. thinking about the mile, never seen this scenario actually.
I think the margin of error is going to be very tight and a difference of 2 seconds can leave one of the big guns out of a medal. Here's how I see the results depending on the winner's time.
1. Sub 3:27 - Jakob is a heavy favorite as the fastest in the field, but this will require a pacer. Potato Tim could serve the purpose, but I highly doubt he will take the risk because unlike Tokyo the field has several fast runners who could leave him out of a medal. No one else will be pacing anywhere near 3:27. If it ends that fast, I predict Jakob-Kerr-Goose.
2. 3:27 - 3:28 - I think the only way we see this time run is with Jakob pushing from early on, and the only runner in shape to hang onto him and snipe him is Kerr. Unless Kerr has to surge and fight for positioning behind Jakob, I favor him heavily in this range. I know Jakob can handle the fast time, but I just don't see him having another gear at the end if he's doing all the work. In this time range, I predict it'll be Kerr-Jakob-Goose. 3rd place is a bit of a toss up here, with potential for Tim, Kessler and Hocker if they can run very clean races.
3. 3:29 - 3:32 - Assuming Jakob takes the lead after 400 and squeezes the field through the end, I think it plays into Hocker's hands as no one can match his kick off a manageable pace. He can drop a 53 but will need to be within striking range. Kerr will be glued to the front and secures a medal. I would boldly predict Hocker-Kerr-Jakob, with Kerr just sniping Jakob at the line. Depending on how clean he runs, I think Kessler may very close to bronze.
4. 3:33 or slower - the only way this happens is if by some miracle Jakob decides to roll the dice. This would be total carnage. We would see surges, elbows, runners getting boxed in. It would be a toss up, but here I give Hocker the edge if he can stay out of trouble. Tim would be a contender as well but he doesn't run cleanly. It's a toss up, but would say Hocker-Kerr-Kessler.
I see #2 as the most likely scenario. Jakob will go to the front, but he won't commit early enough to be able to run so fast as to take the kick out of everybody. I think he is overly confident about his fitness and speed and just doesn't see any other way to run this race. I do think he is afraid to go WR pace from the gun. It's just too risky. Plus Jakob has been planning for exactly this scenario since last summer and I think it'll go as planned. Kerr is just too laser focused and confident in championship racing. He knows this is the formula to win. IMO I think Jakob is mentally preparing for a silver even if he's pumping himself up to go hard.
I will start with the runners who in my opinion have almost zero chances to medal:
Nillesen, Arese, Gourley, Laros, Nordaas and (sorry THOUGHTSLEADER) Komen and Tim.
They had to go all in in the semifinals and especially the first mentioned have PBs far away from the top runners.
Laros time will possibly come but for now he isn´t fast enough.
Nordaas only just managed to qualify and his performances this season don´t indicate that he will be able to hang on to the top guys.
Komen and Tim didn´t look as they had fully recovered from the heat. Komen qualified well but he really had to work just to be close to Jakob and Kerr who were only cruising. And Tim did not have the strenght to hang on to Nuguse struggling all the way just to qualify.
So left as real medal contenders are the 3 Americans, Kerr and Jakob.
There have been a lot of discussion on this and other threads about Kerr´s PB at 3:29. I think it is quite clear that he in the Bowerman Mile 2024 was in sub 3:28 shape and if he has improved further - what would be normal - he could be in low 3:27 shape tomorrow (in a Monaco like paced race under good conditions provided Kerr doesn´t have to take over after the pacemakers drop out; if Kerr HAS to front run the last 500m he could possibly run low 3:28)
Jakob ran 3:26.73 in DL Monaco less than a month ago. I think he might have improved further so he could be in low 3:26 shape. So perhaps 2 second faster than Kerr in a paced DL race under equal conditions.
Nuguse looked strong in his semifinal and might be back in his Bowerman Mile 2023 shape: around mid 3:27. Mid 3:28 if he should front run after the pacemakers drop out.
Both Hocker and Kessler looked strong but it is uncertain how fast they can go in a really fast final. 3.28?
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I agree with the posters on this thread who argue that Nuguse could benefit from taking it out hard, for example with a 56 first lap or perhaps even a 84 first 600m. In that way he could secure to have Jakob´s back if the latter as expected take over to finish the race fast. He would then have the position he had in the Bowerman Mile 2023 and a chance both to outsprint Jakob in the finish and hold off Kerr in a ideal scenario. Perhaps Nuguse will even get help from Hocker and Kessler to hold off Josh if these 2 hang on to him (Nuguse) as they hang on to the leaders in their respective semifinals (and as they hang on to Nuguse in the US trial final).
If no one takes it out fast Jakob has to decide if he wants to front run most of the race with Kerr and/ or Nuguse on his shoulder or if he should wait some laps before he goes to the front. I would chose the last solution since frontrunning most of the race will annilate the difference between Jakob´s and Kerr´s and Nuguse´s potential PBs.
I think it is difficult to say who will win when the top guys look to be at the peak of their careers (at least so far) and when the potential of the top 3 seems to be quite close, especially when the supposed fastest guy is expected to front run most of the race.
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By the way: Kerr´ closest supporters (Trollminator, Sledge-Hammer and more) are certain that Kerr is the better championship racer, despite being beaten by Jakob in 4 out of 5 Worlds or Olympics finals. And despite Jakob winning numerous Euros finals indoor and outdoor starting winning double 1500m and 5000m gold at the age of 17.
And: Almost everyone here consider Kerr the superior finisher despite Jakob easily outsprinting Kerr twice last year (even though Kerr got pace from start to finish) whereas Kerr only has beaten Jakob narrowly twice in the same period.
Good post. Kerr is on a completely different level now than last year.
I think the margin of error is going to be very tight and a difference of 2 seconds can leave one of the big guns out of a medal. Here's how I see the results depending on the winner's time.
1. Sub 3:27 - Jakob is a heavy favorite as the fastest in the field, but this will require a pacer. Potato Tim could serve the purpose, but I highly doubt he will take the risk because unlike Tokyo the field has several fast runners who could leave him out of a medal. No one else will be pacing anywhere near 3:27. If it ends that fast, I predict Jakob-Kerr-Goose.
2. 3:27 - 3:28 - I think the only way we see this time run is with Jakob pushing from early on, and the only runner in shape to hang onto him and snipe him is Kerr. Unless Kerr has to surge and fight for positioning behind Jakob, I favor him heavily in this range. I know Jakob can handle the fast time, but I just don't see him having another gear at the end if he's doing all the work. In this time range, I predict it'll be Kerr-Jakob-Goose. 3rd place is a bit of a toss up here, with potential for Tim, Kessler and Hocker if they can run very clean races.
3. 3:29 - 3:32 - Assuming Jakob takes the lead after 400 and squeezes the field through the end, I think it plays into Hocker's hands as no one can match his kick off a manageable pace. He can drop a 53 but will need to be within striking range. Kerr will be glued to the front and secures a medal. I would boldly predict Hocker-Kerr-Jakob, with Kerr just sniping Jakob at the line. Depending on how clean he runs, I think Kessler may very close to bronze.
4. 3:33 or slower - the only way this happens is if by some miracle Jakob decides to roll the dice. This would be total carnage. We would see surges, elbows, runners getting boxed in. It would be a toss up, but here I give Hocker the edge if he can stay out of trouble. Tim would be a contender as well but he doesn't run cleanly. It's a toss up, but would say Hocker-Kerr-Kessler.
I see #2 as the most likely scenario. Jakob will go to the front, but he won't commit early enough to be able to run so fast as to take the kick out of everybody. I think he is overly confident about his fitness and speed and just doesn't see any other way to run this race. I do think he is afraid to go WR pace from the gun. It's just too risky. Plus Jakob has been planning for exactly this scenario since last summer and I think it'll go as planned. Kerr is just too laser focused and confident in championship racing. He knows this is the formula to win. IMO I think Jakob is mentally preparing for a silver even if he's pumping himself up to go hard.
Ffs man Jakob isn’t going to run sub 3:27. In Monaco he had a perfect race where he never had to run around anyone, there were pacers and wave light technology and the weather conditions were very good so it wasn’t really hot and it was still. Tomorrow in the final it will be hot. About 28 degree c. There won’t be pacers or wave light and there will be a lot of jostling. The only advantage Paris has is that the track is maybe slightly quicker than Monaco but I don’t even know
because the Monaco track is insanely quick. Jakob would beat Kerr in a time trial but I think Kerr wins here as long as he doesn’t run extra distance on the outside too much which he has a habit of doing.
Given all this excitement, it feels kind of like a swimming Olympics with Michael Phelps about to jump in the pool.
Throw in today's spikes (akin to swimwear advancements) and I honestly believe we could get a 3:25 tomorrow night.
Probably from Jakob if it happens, but who the hell knows. Maybe Kerr or Nuguse
So exciting. It's been an awesome Olympics for track so far. That 100 meter final was incredible! This is going to be an amazing final too given the tiny margins expected to determine medals. It's gonna be at least a 3:28. Anything else would shock me but it will be a dog fight either way no doubt.
I think the margin of error is going to be very tight and a difference of 2 seconds can leave one of the big guns out of a medal. Here's how I see the results depending on the winner's time.
1. Sub 3:27 - Jakob is a heavy favorite as the fastest in the field, but this will require a pacer. Potato Tim could serve the purpose, but I highly doubt he will take the risk because unlike Tokyo the field has several fast runners who could leave him out of a medal. No one else will be pacing anywhere near 3:27. If it ends that fast, I predict Jakob-Kerr-Goose.
2. 3:27 - 3:28 - I think the only way we see this time run is with Jakob pushing from early on, and the only runner in shape to hang onto him and snipe him is Kerr. Unless Kerr has to surge and fight for positioning behind Jakob, I favor him heavily in this range. I know Jakob can handle the fast time, but I just don't see him having another gear at the end if he's doing all the work. In this time range, I predict it'll be Kerr-Jakob-Goose. 3rd place is a bit of a toss up here, with potential for Tim, Kessler and Hocker if they can run very clean races.
3. 3:29 - 3:32 - Assuming Jakob takes the lead after 400 and squeezes the field through the end, I think it plays into Hocker's hands as no one can match his kick off a manageable pace. He can drop a 53 but will need to be within striking range. Kerr will be glued to the front and secures a medal. I would boldly predict Hocker-Kerr-Jakob, with Kerr just sniping Jakob at the line. Depending on how clean he runs, I think Kessler may very close to bronze.
4. 3:33 or slower - the only way this happens is if by some miracle Jakob decides to roll the dice. This would be total carnage. We would see surges, elbows, runners getting boxed in. It would be a toss up, but here I give Hocker the edge if he can stay out of trouble. Tim would be a contender as well but he doesn't run cleanly. It's a toss up, but would say Hocker-Kerr-Kessler.
I see #2 as the most likely scenario. Jakob will go to the front, but he won't commit early enough to be able to run so fast as to take the kick out of everybody. I think he is overly confident about his fitness and speed and just doesn't see any other way to run this race. I do think he is afraid to go WR pace from the gun. It's just too risky. Plus Jakob has been planning for exactly this scenario since last summer and I think it'll go as planned. Kerr is just too laser focused and confident in championship racing. He knows this is the formula to win. IMO I think Jakob is mentally preparing for a silver even if he's pumping himself up to go hard.
Ffs man Jakob isn’t going to run sub 3:27. In Monaco he had a perfect race where he never had to run around anyone, there were pacers and wave light technology and the weather conditions were very good so it wasn’t really hot and it was still. Tomorrow in the final it will be hot. About 28 degree c. There won’t be pacers or wave light and there will be a lot of jostling. The only advantage Paris has is that the track is maybe slightly quicker than Monaco but I don’t even know
because the Monaco track is insanely quick. Jakob would beat Kerr in a time trial but I think Kerr wins here as long as he doesn’t run extra distance on the outside too much which he has a habit of doing.
Yeah I can't imagine a 3:27 either... while possible, it would take the largest balls ever for Jakob to actually commit. I think Kerr has a clear edge.
I think the margin of error is going to be very tight and a difference of 2 seconds can leave one of the big guns out of a medal. Here's how I see the results depending on the winner's time.
1. Sub 3:27 - Jakob is a heavy favorite as the fastest in the field, but this will require a pacer. Potato Tim could serve the purpose, but I highly doubt he will take the risk because unlike Tokyo the field has several fast runners who could leave him out of a medal. No one else will be pacing anywhere near 3:27. If it ends that fast, I predict Jakob-Kerr-Goose.
2. 3:27 - 3:28 - I think the only way we see this time run is with Jakob pushing from early on, and the only runner in shape to hang onto him and snipe him is Kerr. Unless Kerr has to surge and fight for positioning behind Jakob, I favor him heavily in this range. I know Jakob can handle the fast time, but I just don't see him having another gear at the end if he's doing all the work. In this time range, I predict it'll be Kerr-Jakob-Goose. 3rd place is a bit of a toss up here, with potential for Tim, Kessler and Hocker if they can run very clean races.
3. 3:29 - 3:32 - Assuming Jakob takes the lead after 400 and squeezes the field through the end, I think it plays into Hocker's hands as no one can match his kick off a manageable pace. He can drop a 53 but will need to be within striking range. Kerr will be glued to the front and secures a medal. I would boldly predict Hocker-Kerr-Jakob, with Kerr just sniping Jakob at the line. Depending on how clean he runs, I think Kessler may very close to bronze.
4. 3:33 or slower - the only way this happens is if by some miracle Jakob decides to roll the dice. This would be total carnage. We would see surges, elbows, runners getting boxed in. It would be a toss up, but here I give Hocker the edge if he can stay out of trouble. Tim would be a contender as well but he doesn't run cleanly. It's a toss up, but would say Hocker-Kerr-Kessler.
I see #2 as the most likely scenario. Jakob will go to the front, but he won't commit early enough to be able to run so fast as to take the kick out of everybody. I think he is overly confident about his fitness and speed and just doesn't see any other way to run this race. I do think he is afraid to go WR pace from the gun. It's just too risky. Plus Jakob has been planning for exactly this scenario since last summer and I think it'll go as planned. Kerr is just too laser focused and confident in championship racing. He knows this is the formula to win. IMO I think Jakob is mentally preparing for a silver even if he's pumping himself up to go hard.
Terrible take lol!!!!!!!!!!!
What are you talking about sir?????
Hocker beating Kerr?????? Seriously, no way man!!!!!!!! Josh Kerr's stride length is double that of Hockers and his arms are twice as strong at least. You are not keyed in like me into the metaphysical aspects of the runners and race hence getting predictions all messed up sir!!!!!
145 guys are running 143 in the 8, and 143 guys are running 141, with the latest gear and tracks.
so it is no stretch to recalculate Kerr down from 327.
that is the new math.
Well I hope that after Kerr wins tomorrow he can take a crack at a very fast time. But just to throw thick salt in Jakob's wound, I would duck him again to refuse him any chance at consolation after this devastating loss. Then he'd have to spend another year coping before he gets a chance to beat Kerr again. You see, once Kerr got the championship belt, he made it a privilege to able to race him again.
Everyone in this thread is assuming Kerr has improved over 1500/mile because of his impressive indoor runs over 3k/2 mile. But, history has shown that improvements at one distance do not necessarily result in improvements at another. He clearly hasn't gotten better at 800m based on his performance at British champs (not withstanding his fall in the final), so I'm not entirely convinced he is significantly better at 1500/mile. His Pre Classic result was marginally better than his Tokyo Olympic performance, but I haven't seen anything that indicates he can run 3:27, much less 3:26. I have an inkling that his overemphasis on being as lean as possible is going to come back to bite him in the form of a lack of strength/power at the end of a fast 1500m.
I think the margin of error is going to be very tight and a difference of 2 seconds can leave one of the big guns out of a medal. Here's how I see the results depending on the winner's time.
1. Sub 3:27 - Jakob is a heavy favorite as the fastest in the field, but this will require a pacer. Potato Tim could serve the purpose, but I highly doubt he will take the risk because unlike Tokyo the field has several fast runners who could leave him out of a medal. No one else will be pacing anywhere near 3:27. If it ends that fast, I predict Jakob-Kerr-Goose.
2. 3:27 - 3:28 - I think the only way we see this time run is with Jakob pushing from early on, and the only runner in shape to hang onto him and snipe him is Kerr. Unless Kerr has to surge and fight for positioning behind Jakob, I favor him heavily in this range. I know Jakob can handle the fast time, but I just don't see him having another gear at the end if he's doing all the work. In this time range, I predict it'll be Kerr-Jakob-Goose. 3rd place is a bit of a toss up here, with potential for Tim, Kessler and Hocker if they can run very clean races.
3. 3:29 - 3:32 - Assuming Jakob takes the lead after 400 and squeezes the field through the end, I think it plays into Hocker's hands as no one can match his kick off a manageable pace. He can drop a 53 but will need to be within striking range. Kerr will be glued to the front and secures a medal. I would boldly predict Hocker-Kerr-Jakob, with Kerr just sniping Jakob at the line. Depending on how clean he runs, I think Kessler may very close to bronze.
4. 3:33 or slower - the only way this happens is if by some miracle Jakob decides to roll the dice. This would be total carnage. We would see surges, elbows, runners getting boxed in. It would be a toss up, but here I give Hocker the edge if he can stay out of trouble. Tim would be a contender as well but he doesn't run cleanly. It's a toss up, but would say Hocker-Kerr-Kessler.
I see #2 as the most likely scenario. Jakob will go to the front, but he won't commit early enough to be able to run so fast as to take the kick out of everybody. I think he is overly confident about his fitness and speed and just doesn't see any other way to run this race. I do think he is afraid to go WR pace from the gun. It's just too risky. Plus Jakob has been planning for exactly this scenario since last summer and I think it'll go as planned. Kerr is just too laser focused and confident in championship racing. He knows this is the formula to win. IMO I think Jakob is mentally preparing for a silver even if he's pumping himself up to go hard.
Terrible take lol!!!!!!!!!!!
What are you talking about sir?????
Hocker beating Kerr?????? Seriously, no way man!!!!!!!! Josh Kerr's stride length is double that of Hockers and his arms are twice as strong at least. You are not keyed in like me into the metaphysical aspects of the runners and race hence getting predictions all messed up sir!!!!!
Learn from me how to understand things!!!
My prediction:
1) 3:26 Kerr-Jakob-Nuguse
2) 3:27-3:40 Kerr-Jakob Hocker
That's the way to do it!!!!
Haha there you are. Yeah I have some slight concerns if the pace in the first 2 laps are ultra slow. You have to be careful with Hocker - if he gets the jump on those guys with his lethal speed off a slow pace they won't catch him. I doubt the race will be slow enough though for him to have a chance.
Everyone in this thread is assuming Kerr has improved over 1500/mile because of his impressive indoor runs over 3k/2 mile. But, history has shown that improvements at one distance do not necessarily result in improvements at another. He clearly hasn't gotten better at 800m based on his performance at British champs (not withstanding his fall in the final), so I'm not entirely convinced he is significantly better at 1500/mile. His Pre Classic result was marginally better than his Tokyo Olympic performance, but I haven't seen anything that indicates he can run 3:27, much less 3:26. I have an inkling that his overemphasis on being as lean as possible is going to come back to bite him in the form of a lack of strength/power at the end of a fast 1500m.
Will a Gold medal tomorrow convince you otherwise, or do you also stand ready to make excuses for Jakob?
Everyone in this thread is assuming Kerr has improved over 1500/mile because of his impressive indoor runs over 3k/2 mile. But, history has shown that improvements at one distance do not necessarily result in improvements at another. He clearly hasn't gotten better at 800m based on his performance at British champs (not withstanding his fall in the final), so I'm not entirely convinced he is significantly better at 1500/mile. His Pre Classic result was marginally better than his Tokyo Olympic performance, but I haven't seen anything that indicates he can run 3:27, much less 3:26. I have an inkling that his overemphasis on being as lean as possible is going to come back to bite him in the form of a lack of strength/power at the end of a fast 1500m.
Will a Gold medal tomorrow convince you otherwise, or do you also stand ready to make excuses for Jakob?
Assuming nothing unusual happens, like a fall or a DQ, then yes it would convince me.
3:27 shape sounds about right and all it takes to snipe Jakob again.
Oh and btw, I'm not saying Kerr isn't capable of it.. just that he's not training to run an even paced 1500 as fast as possible. He's getting faster training for strength and speed (for his kick). He would need to get on a time trial racing program like Jakob to sharpen his fitness for that and inch toward it over time. Kerr wants to be a gold medalist, not a workout champ.
3:27 shape sounds about right and all it takes to snipe Jakob again.
Oh and btw, I'm not saying Kerr isn't capable of it.. just that he's not training to run an even paced 1500 as fast as possible. He's getting faster training for strength and speed (for his kick). He would need to get on a time trial racing program like Jakob to sharpen his fitness for that and inch toward it over time. Kerr wants to be a gold medalist, not a workout champ.
Nobody sane on here would argue that Kerr is way fitter than last year. But Jakob was a 3:27.14 guy last year. Now he's a 3:26.73 guy. It's his to lose. The PERCENTAGE improvement from 3:27.14 to 3:26.73 is phenomenal. His fitness has improved drastically too. It's just hard for me to imagine ANY pace tomorrow that is difficult for him early on.