Yeah Grant is the only 10k/5k guy from the US that I can see being a medal contender when it counts (when he's healthy of course). I say that mainly because he proved it last year and in Tokyo, not just from opinion. You just can't say the same for Klecker and Kincaid until they prove it on the world stage as well.
A couple thoughts about the race, building off what a lot of people have said.
1. This race highlights the gap between guys like Rupp and 2022 Fisher and the rest of American hopefuls. You just have to be really frickin good, like 26:30-type good, to have a shot at hanging with the africans until the end. I think we had hope that with Woody's kick and fast 5ks this year, he could be a contender in a slow race, but he's just not at that level endurance-wise. His poor performance in the US champs 5k year highlighted that. His ceiling could be pretty high in the right conditions and type of race, and he may still be a medal threat in the next couple years, but he's just not strong enough (either mentally or physically, maybe both) to hang in a really tough race like this.
2. It's fair to say that the heat exacerbated the gap between the Americans and Africans, but that gap was already there and is not the reason Americans were irrelevant in this race. If it were 20-30 degrees cooler and Aregawi makes the same move he did at 2 miles, those 64-65 second laps are going to be 62-63s, and neither Kincaid nor any other American who isn't a top-form Grant Fisher is hanging with that given what they showed today. I'd guess that in that scenario Kincaid still gets dropped pretty badly and is sitting 8-9th at the bell, then is able to pick off a few people to maybe finish 6th-7th.
3. I was a bit worried that Klecker was over-raced/not peaking correctly. In addition to being super fit in Feb/March, he raced two diamond league 5ks in June, plus the tough 10k/5k double at USAs, and was probably a bit gassed coming in to this race. I know Fisher also ran super fast over the winter last year, but his only races between the Sound 10k in March and Worlds was US champs and a 1500. I agree that world cross would be better prep for than indoor time trials and the Americans should more seriously consider it, though Rupp didn't need it to become a 10k silver medalist.
Rupp had better coaching and pedigree than Fisher. Rupp never focused on time trialing and didn't get the super shoes during his prime. The Africans respected Rupp when he raced them, even focused on him. Fisher and especially Kincaid, Klecker and McGorty don't even register with the Africans when they race today.
Yeah Grant is the only 10k/5k guy from the US that I can see being a medal contender when it counts (when he's healthy of course). I say that mainly because he proved it last year and in Tokyo, not just from opinion. You just can't say the same for Klecker and Kincaid until they prove it on the world stage as well.
I think Klecker and Kincaid have clear weaknesses. Woody can’t hang with a reasonably fast pace. Klecker can’t close with the best and admits in a sub-12:50 race he can’t hang as well and his best bet is to pick off stragglers. But there is hope in Nur who can hang with a fast last K better than Woody and close harder than Klecker.
Fisher can definitely hang, but needs to be less passive and worried about hugging the rail. Mburu beat him last year due to that, and if you put him in this year in the same fitness I’d be concerned that he would’ve been caught trailing Barega/Ebenyo who he was not gonna catch.
A couple thoughts about the race, building off what a lot of people have said.
1. This race highlights the gap between guys like Rupp and 2022 Fisher and the rest of American hopefuls. You just have to be really frickin good, like 26:30-type good, to have a shot at hanging with the africans until the end. I think we had hope that with Woody's kick and fast 5ks this year, he could be a contender in a slow race, but he's just not at that level endurance-wise. His poor performance in the US champs 5k year highlighted that. His ceiling could be pretty high in the right conditions and type of race, and he may still be a medal threat in the next couple years, but he's just not strong enough (either mentally or physically, maybe both) to hang in a really tough race like this.
2. It's fair to say that the heat exacerbated the gap between the Americans and Africans, but that gap was already there and is not the reason Americans were irrelevant in this race. If it were 20-30 degrees cooler and Aregawi makes the same move he did at 2 miles, those 64-65 second laps are going to be 62-63s, and neither Kincaid nor any other American who isn't a top-form Grant Fisher is hanging with that given what they showed today. I'd guess that in that scenario Kincaid still gets dropped pretty badly and is sitting 8-9th at the bell, then is able to pick off a few people to maybe finish 6th-7th.
3. I was a bit worried that Klecker was over-raced/not peaking correctly. In addition to being super fit in Feb/March, he raced two diamond league 5ks in June, plus the tough 10k/5k double at USAs, and was probably a bit gassed coming in to this race. I know Fisher also ran super fast over the winter last year, but his only races between the Sound 10k in March and Worlds was US champs and a 1500. I agree that world cross would be better prep for than indoor time trials and the Americans should more seriously consider it, though Rupp didn't need it to become a 10k silver medalist.
Rupp had better coaching and pedigree than Fisher. Rupp never focused on time trialing and didn't get the super shoes during his prime. The Africans respected Rupp when he raced them, even focused on him. Fisher and especially Kincaid, Klecker and McGorty don't even register with the Africans when they race today.
Give Fisher a couple more years before making conclusions about pedigree and coaching superiority. As you can see below, Rupp's performance on the world stage was pretty unimpressive before the 2012 olympics, and that was the only year on the track that was clearly better than Fisher's 4th/6th last year.
2007 Osaka 10,000 m, 11th
2008 Beijing 10,000 m, 13th
2009 Berlin 10,000 m, 8th
2011 Daegu 10,000 m, 7th 5000 m, 9th
2012 London 10,000 m, Silver 5000 m, 7th
2013 Moscow 10,000 m, 4th 5000 m, 8th
2015 Beijing 10,000 m, 5th 5000 m, 5th
2016 Rio de Janeiro 10,000 m, 5th Marathon, Bronze
Give Fisher a couple more years before making conclusions about pedigree and coaching superiority. As you can see below, Rupp's performance on the world stage was pretty unimpressive before the 2012 olympics, and that was the only year on the track that was clearly better than Fisher's 4th/6th last year.
2007 Osaka 10,000 m, 11th
2008 Beijing 10,000 m, 13th
2009 Berlin 10,000 m, 8th
2011 Daegu 10,000 m, 7th 5000 m, 9th
2012 London 10,000 m, Silver 5000 m, 7th
2013 Moscow 10,000 m, 4th 5000 m, 8th
2015 Beijing 10,000 m, 5th 5000 m, 5th
2016 Rio de Janeiro 10,000 m, 5th Marathon, Bronze
Fair, but don't forget that Rupp competed in the 2009 USATF Championship in his U of O singlet; he was effectively a college kid for Osaka, Beijing and Berlin.
Fisher last competed in the NCAA in Spring 2019, so his '22 WC performance is relatively on-par with Rupp's London (both ~3 years out from being collegians).
Help us build the best running shoe review site for a chance to win a LetsRun t-shirt.Help us build the best running shoe review site for a chance to win one of 10 LetsRun t-shirts.