Can the York girls team get an at-large? They won the state meet. On the girls side, I think 2 at-larges will be from the Southwest, and 1 from CA. 4th at-large spot will be up for grabs
They beat first place Prospect and 2nd place Downers Grove 3 times each during the season. They're a lock for an at-large.
Not important to the conversation. The poster stated that they would have won the other two regions, and I pointed to data indicating that they would NOT have won either. Of course they very easily could have won or placed 2nd, 3rd or 4th in any of the regions because the teams are all pretty evenly matched.
Except the team that was 30+ points out of qualifying at the NW would take 2nd at two other regions.
For what it's worth, the Heartland winner would have been 5th if you put their speed scores into the NW. The Midwest winner would have been neck and neck with Rocky if you did the same.
Not true. Downers would have been 3rd between Crater and Franklin if you use speed ratings.
there's so many factors in XC; course conditions, temperature, wind speed, number of people in the race to draft off of. Are there other fast people in the race to draft off of in poor conditions? and then you can just kick it in at the end and win? SO MANY FACTORS.
Speed ratings are made up numbers. I don't put any street cred into speed ratings.
of course teams in the midwest/northeast think speed ratings are an accurate representation of what is to come..
Not true in the MW. We think they're BS.
there not "BS" sometimes they are quite accurate, other times they are off. As of yet, they aren't an accurate representation of what is to come. But they do seem to be getting better every year. For example, this years speed ratings are better than last year.
there not "BS" sometimes they are quite accurate, other times they are off. As of yet, they aren't an accurate representation of what is to come. But they do seem to be getting better every year. For example, this years speed ratings are better than last year.
Make up your mind. Are they accurate or not? Being right half the time means you were wrong half the time. You might as well flip a coin. That first year they raved about that Manlius team and their speed ratings and how they were the greatest team in history then York and the Dettmans took them apart at Nationals. And one of the Dettmans even had a subpar race.
I've seen guys pick closer without the so called expert analytics.
check out Bill Meylan's predictions v what actually happened at the NYS Meet... incredibly accurate for the most part... go to tullyrunners.com...granted he has a goodly number of data points compared to other regions...
Prediction for at-large selection On the girls side:
2 at larges from the Southwest
1 from 2 of these 3 regions: - California - Midwest - South (whichever gets third between Flower Mound, Southlake Carroll, and Lucas Lovejoy. Flower Mound won the state meet because both Humphries sisters are back)
Southlake Carroll looks very dangerous after their performance today. Right now for me it's NXR South > NXR Northwest >>>>>>>>>> NXR Midwest > NXR Heartland
American Fork put 3 in front of Herriman's 1, but Herriman had pretty much all their guys move up 20-30 spots the last mile. If they get out a little better at NXN, I think they're still in the conversation for the victory.
Looks to me that Riverton might be getting an at-large team but probably not the Niwot boys, who were very far back. Niwot boys team have no seniors so there’s next year for them
Was the south already slotted for an at large or would Vandegrift getting one probably take one from a different region? Thanks
At-large is decided by nxn committee. Right now my personal at-large distribution would be - 1) Riverton 2) Niwot 3) Vandegrift 4) Franklin 5) Rocky Mountain. Depending on California, Northeast, Southeast, New York put out at their nxr, that could change.
However, based on my analysis it is likely Vandegrift gets the at-large. Northeast, Southeast, and New York don't look to have 3rd teams that are strong enough. California is a mixed bag, who knows how good they are. They could be falling apart, or they could be great. Northeast is completely overrated and doesn't deserve an at-large.
Was the south already slotted for an at large or would Vandegrift getting one probably take one from a different region? Thanks
At-large is decided by nxn committee. Right now my personal at-large distribution would be - 1) Riverton 2) Niwot 3) Vandegrift 4) Franklin 5) Rocky Mountain. Depending on California, Northeast, Southeast, New York put out at their nxr, that could change.
However, based on my analysis it is likely Vandegrift gets the at-large. Northeast, Southeast, and New York don't look to have 3rd teams that are strong enough. California is a mixed bag, who knows how good they are. They could be falling apart, or they could be great. Northeast is completely overrated and doesn't deserve an at-large.
California will get an at large but barely.
1) Riverton
2) Franklin
3) Vandegrift
4) San Clemente/Great Oak/Oakdale/Dana Hill**
**Dana if they end up third in the merge due to running in the afternoon compared to early morning for D1 races.
