NC state has about 12 legit all American caliber runners! And 6 elite runners. With that much talent and with as much as support as their program is going to get and all that competition, I'd be surprised if they can't have five runners really primed for championships! In fact there's some talk that they might actually redshirt 1 of their top runners just because they have so much talent.
dude the guy started a website I think he's smart enough to realize that there are freshmen and transfers... And why would transfer be any different... I mean transfers were college students so they would count with comparing results...And
he has Natalie cooked rank 21 and Jenna Hutchins ranked like 27...
Where did you get top 10 from? Who mentioned that? And then what point are you responding to?
I said that NC State could put 6 in the top 15 if they had an amazing day!
Meaning they have six runners that have that potential!
I then said they almost will definitely put five in the top 30!
Some anonymous dude responded by calling me delusional! And then when I site evidence that shows he is being moronic... he starts saying don't insult people! When he was the one that first used an insult!
I then cited two pieces of evidence! One is the wood report which is run by a guy who is pretty knowledgeable and predicted six NC State runners in the top 15
And another piece of evidence was that six of their returners are among the top 12 for returning 5K times from last spring
I never claimed that this was an exact predictor! I mean honestly you have to be out of it to think that your 5K times are going to translate exactly to, cross country course 6K, run 6 to 9 months later!
I never made that argument or even imply that and it was obvious with anyone who wanted to try to understand me, that I was just saying it was a piece of evidence that said they had that potential!
NC state has six really good distance runners... Will they put six in the top 15, probably not because things rarely work out perfectly... Will they put 5 in the top 30, I would bet a lot of money they will...
Anyway this isn't rocket science, the girls with the better endurance running ability will perform better! And your 5K times are pretty good indicator for a lot of these girls! Yeah there's a few steeplechase specialists, and there's a few people who will really improve drastically, and maybe a few miles specialists who also really improve their endurance running
But again we can take a look at track times and make some reasonable predictions about what kind of potential runners have
If you don't think that running a 1530ish 5K in the last year puts you in a pretty good position to do well, then that's your thang!
Ok I mentioned top 10 as just a side point... It wasn't really what we were arguing about
Anyway roe and denner did run fast 5k times right after xc... Still it wasn't really what we were discussing but I stand by the fact that the majority of top cross country runners will have a fast 5k time as well!
I think you have shifted from 6 in top 20 to maybe 6 in top 15 to now almost surely 5 in top 30.
5 in top 30 seems reasonable, the others I think are way over optimistic. BTW the Stride report shows 5 in top 30.
But if Wood turns out to be right, I will come back and admit I was wrong.
Last year's 5K times saying who will finish top 10 this year? History disagrees on that. Most of the fast 5K times by the runners you listed happened after their top 10 finish. So the correlation seems the other way (top XC => fast 5K). Speaking of that, Cook and Hutchins belong high up on the list based on their 5K times, no?
Also other than Tuohy, the top 5 NM runners have nearly as good 5K times as NC St runners (except Thorner who has fast 3K s).
Anyway here's 2018 cross country results if you look at it everyone in the top 20 except for one runner has a strong 5K time
This one runner who doesn't have any time and there's one runner who's like 1613
18 of the top 20 have strong 5K times! I think the people are either trolling or they're just can't deal that NC State is really talented!
I don't know where you come up with these claims. From those 2018 top runners, I could not find a 5K time before the Fall of 2018 for Hull, Birk, Rainsberger, Cranny, LaRocco, or Jones. Henes, Pyzik, Prouse, Wasike, Scholl, Roberts all showed best prior time around 16:00 - or slower (although Wasike showed 32:46 10 K). Ostrander and Rohrer had times around 15:45 although Rohrers was from 2017. Monson, Kelati and Kurgat certainly had fast times in 2018 or earlier. If runners later ran a fast 5K time after the Fall of 2018 is of little value in predicting how they would do in that race ahead of then!
I'm not claiming guarantees here! I'm just saying that you're running a 6K cross country, the best indicator on the track would be a 5K time!
Well that might even be debatable but the point is not many runners in college do the 10K it's kind of like maybe 10% of runners n the same with the steeplechase
All we can really do is look at the past evidence as some barometer!
Lot of subtle or disguised anti touhy vibe against NC state in the comments! Why people r hatin... I mean how is she not the favorite?
I'm not getting a lot of anti-Tuohy vibe here. I am reading that one person seems overly optimistic about NC State's chances and some others believe that while they will win, they're being cautiously optimistic.
Touhy is one of the favorites. I will not say that she it THE favorite. I want to see her win but I am going to be a bit reserved in my enthusiasm.
Especially on the OK State xc course. It heavily favors smaller runners.
Frentheway is a terrible track runner but got 15th on that course.
Do mind giving some context to your post? I see that you are answering FastTuohy but am not sure what post since you did not quote it.
Also, is your "smaller runner" comment aimed at Tuohy? Just wondering because while she is definitley not a smaller runner, she is not a big runner either. She is a very powerful runner and has well-defined muscles and that sometimes makes her look bigger than she really is. I don't believe she will have issues with the course.
I don't know I was listening to the stride report and they were saying how they think Taylor roe is going to be better than tuohy... Also they were kind of playing up the competition... I mean I guess they got her because it's better for business and just more interesting to talk like that but... Also if anyone can post the predictions from every site ... Because a lot seem like they're behind a payroll but I saw the wood report and he predicted NC State with 6 in top 13...
Especially on the OK State xc course. It heavily favors smaller runners.
Frentheway is a terrible track runner but got 15th on that course.
Do mind giving some context to your post? I see that you are answering FastTuohy but am not sure what post since you did not quote it.
Also, is your "smaller runner" comment aimed at Tuohy? Just wondering because while she is definitley not a smaller runner, she is not a big runner either. She is a very powerful runner and has well-defined muscles and that sometimes makes her look bigger than she really is. I don't believe she will have issues with the course.
Why have they added a limbo section? Didn't they run at this course 2 years ago?
Especially on the OK State xc course. It heavily favors smaller runners.
Frentheway is a terrible track runner but got 15th on that course.
Do mind giving some context to your post? I see that you are answering FastTuohy but am not sure what post since you did not quote it.
Also, is your "smaller runner" comment aimed at Tuohy? Just wondering because while she is definitley not a smaller runner, she is not a big runner either. She is a very powerful runner and has well-defined muscles and that sometimes makes her look bigger than she really is. I don't believe she will have issues with the course.
I don't think it was a comment about any specific runner, but rather a comment on how good of a predictor a 5K track time might be on finish at this year's NCAA championship due to it being a very hilly course.
I don't know I was listening to the stride report and they were saying how they think Taylor roe is going to be better than tuohy... Also they were kind of playing up the competition... I mean I guess they got her because it's better for business and just more interesting to talk like that but... Also if anyone can post the predictions from every site ... Because a lot seem like they're behind a payroll but I saw the wood report and he predicted NC State with 6 in top 13...