Official Seth Demoor Gasparilla Half Marathon Prediction Thread

65:00 ish

Just looked at his strava. Gotta say he ran a pretty good race. Terrible weather for a run, so you gotta add at least a minute there.

Pretty good strategic victory IMO. His miles 11-12 were strong. Looks like he made a move and stuck it out.

I wonder if any of the 7 pages of trolls that bashed the guy (to compensate for their own inadequacies) will return to admit their error.

Is this guy gunning for an OTQ this cycle?

Good race! Good win! Not where he needs to be for an Olympic Qualifying time, if that is still his goal, but good race. Temps looked to be 65-66 degrees for the race, so about what was expected from mid last week.

What mistakes? Most predicted he would run somewhere between 1:07 - 1:10. He ran just under 1:09. Most critical posts were about his content style and his odd training methodology. Those opinions are held by the posters and valid.

Today is a great day for the DEE GEE ARRRR fam-a-lee!!! Credit where it is due, SJD picks up a win and some cash.

Keep us posted on his five-part victory lap video series and the fans reactions to this win? By Tuesday, this will no doubt be bigger to them than Kipchoge's 1:59:40 and the DGR fam will be confidently predicting that SJD will win the world championship marathon in Rotterdam (Sshhhhh! Let them figure it out.).

Well his goal was to match his pr and average 3.06 pace with main goal running a negative split.

His splits were 3.11 and 3.18 pace 🤷🏻‍♂️

According to weatherunderground, race time conditions were about 69 degrees and over 80% humiditity. This might not seem extreme, but it had to be very uncomfortable for a runner coming from a cold and dry climate who was completely unacclimated.

I wonder if he picked a Florida race because it was most likely to not be cancelled.

What error? he ran slightly faster than most predictions but it wasn’t impressive in anyway. The guy is still gonna have major problems in Rotterdam. Predicting 2:26. Still gonna really hard for him. Aa

This is the fault of his training. The lack of lactate threshold improvement and speed work essentially limits his ability to dig deep. To borrow from NASCAR racing, he has a restrictor plate installed and that limits his horsepower. He has essentially limited himself to only run an 85-90% effort.

His goal used to be 1:04, he did 1:05 last year in Naples. So this 1:08 ish almost 1:09 was a step back. The best of a slower field I guess? I mean good for the kids getting their Andy's.

Letsrun crown chooses to not congratulate the guy on a win and decent race. Instead, they need to continue to bash, disparage and criticize. They just can't bring themselves to be decent people to other runners. It must be negativity.

I think that your 2:26 is generous. He will go out far too hard, probably hit halfway in 1:08-1:09, and then crash hard in the back half. I am going with 2:30 or a DNF. There will be a sob story about Dutch food, the stresses of raising a large family and producing daily vids, maybe having to accept aging, travel in uncertain times, etc. all designed to elicit sympathy and more fan donations.

FWIW, the second place finisher ran a 2:17:46 in Houston six weeks ago and also qualified for the 2016 and 2020 Marathon trials.

1:09 is a fast half marathon time for sure. But I congratulate people for achieving their stated goal or for improving on their personal records. Hobbyjoggers get a "congrats" for covering a distance they'd never run before. We were rather sure he would finish, so I can't think of a reason why I should congratulate a runner for running 4 minutes slower than he did last year. I probably wouldn't congratulate my friend after a race where they missed their goal time by 4+ minutes...because it would ring hollow. I'd tell them nice run, or good job dealing with the adversity, or ask them how they felt. But Seth is a rando to me. I owe him nothing...

Were we supposed to congratulate Emma Coburn for her performance in Tokyo? (Assuming we already congratulated her for prior successes/making it to Tokyo)

I have no obligation to provide constant, blind positivity for everyone - that's Seth's job.

I feel like you are implying that this means Seth is capable of achieving those things as well

But all I can conclude is that the guy is in the recovery phase from a stellar marathon. Although, what do I know, maybe this was his A race and the all-out marathon 6 weeks out was part of the buildup.

That's exactly what that means.

Let me clarify. It's not impressive for him. Would be impressive for someone that hasn't run that time? Yes. But for a guy that says he wants to run 2:17:30 and ran 1:05 last year, it's not impressive. The problem is his training has been fundamentally broken for a long time... and keeps frying himself with ultra high mileage and shuffle runs.