Stop lying to yourselves about ATHING MU, she has WR potential

There’s no such thing as male or female anymore. Why do we care about this person? She cannot compete with the top humans alive so is irrelevant

Jelimo should be the legit WR holder in the 800 - but surpassing her will be tough for any female athlete. Right now Mu is older than Jelimo was when she ran 1:54.01, and about three and a half seconds slower.

Mu probably focuses on the 400 this year (she'll probably have no trouble making the 4x400 team). In the 800 I think she can challenge Ajee Wilson, but who knows what her growth potential will be beyond that. I wish her well.

Come on guy, Jelimo ran her 1:54.01 the first year she burst into the world scene and it was later in the season. You can't say Mu is any seconds slower then Jelimo til her season is over if your trying to compare them. My season is far different then Jelimo and her focus is the Olympics not April or May.

gernuu wrote:

African American females reach puberty earlier. Please stop trying to correct me.

It isnt a question of who arrives at puberty earlier but relative degrees of physical maturity in late teens. We see with many African athletes that they achieve a level of performance at around 18 more equivalent to Caucasians at a later age, that isnt explained solely by virtue of the fact they may be better athletes.

I dont question that Mu is already an exceptional athlete with great potential. But for those who confidently predict world records I might remind them of another prodigy I saw many years ago who competed at the Olympics at 17 and set a world record over the half at the age of 19. But then he never ran faster. And he was also an endurance-based athlete - more so than Mu. His name was Jim Ryun.

World-beating performances at an early age may suggest the peak is already near - if it hasn't already been arrived at.

Mu is hardly old for the 800 at age 18, so Jelimo's age at the time of her PB is not really relevant.

Jelimo, by the way, ran her first 800 race ever on April 19, 2008 in 2:01.02 and somehow progressed to 1:54.01 barely 4 months later on August 29, 2008...and everyone thinks that's legitimate??? Other posters here have said a 4 second drop over the course of a year or two by Mu would be proof positive that she must be doping, but Jelimo's 7 second drop over 4 months is accepted on its face??? And all of that with a 400m PB of 52.78 and a 1500m PB of 4:19.31??? Something doesn't pass the smell test here...(and one can look at her modest 400 and 200 performances in 2007 to further substantiate that questionable smell).

Regardless, though, it's hard to see how Mu pales by this comparison with Jelimo. If Jelimo's 800 time was actually run clean, and her 400/1500 credentials were good enough to get her to 1:54.01, then Mu's world historical best 49.52 (indoor!) 400 split and her 4:16 time for 1500m (in a tactical race in a duel meet) certainly should be. (And, again, Mu easily breaks 4:10 for 1500 if she trains for it even briefly and is in the right race [which is not a duel meet against the University of Texas's women's distance squad, with all due respect]).

Let's remember, folks, that Mu ran 1:23.57 for 600m (indoors!) as a 16 year old! That's an American record and the 2nd fastest time in world history. The idea that the same athlete--with further development, experience, and coaching in the NCAA's best 800m program--has ZERO chance of covering an additional 200 meters in an additional 30.4 seconds is ridiculous.

Also, many of you here need to consider the context of race performances and not simply the final time in the abstract. Mu ran her outdoor 1:57.73 in only her 3rd collegiate 800 race, in a negative split, winning by 3 seconds over 2nd place, and on a miserably cold and windy day. (Many of the sprint athletes at the meet chose not to even compete because it was so unfavorable for fast running!) She likely goes under 1:57 in that same race in warmer weather with anyone close to her in the home stretch. It will not--or at least should not--be surprising if she ends up running 1:56 low or 1:55 high at SEC or NCAA Outdoors under good weather conditions.

Acting as if she's ONLY a 1:57 high 800 athlete--even just right now--betrays an ignorance of context and also a failure to recognize that she has not run anywhere near her current potential this year. And deliberately so! Her coaches are working VERY carefully to develop her so that she wins NCAA titles indoors and outdoors, breaks NCAA records indoors and outdoors, AND still has a great shot at making the Olympics and competing for a medal there.

She still has several months in which she will likely progress significantly. A 1:54 this year, while not something that anyone should EXPECT of her, is not crazy to contemplate.

Winning at an international level and at global championships isn't the same as dominating nationally. Alan Webb, Prefontaine.

You have given good reasons why Jelimo's 1.54 is dubious. But no one else that we can confidently trust as clean has gotten near that time. The sport doesn't promote confidence that a clean athlete will be able to achieve what the likely dopers have.

I agree--no one else we can be confident is clean has gotten close to it in decades.

But I've also given good reasons for thinking that Mu is precisely the kind of generational talent who has a legitimate shot at doing just that...and perhaps much sooner than anyone here seems to think.

She has better physical tools than any other woman 800m athlete in history (I would not be shocked to see her run 49 low or even 48 high for a relay split if she was running fresh and in a competitive outdoor 4 x 400, and I also believe she could go sub-4:05 for 1500 if she trained for it). But even more importantly she has the mental makeup of a champion. She has not needed anyone near her to run as fast as she already has, and she hasn't run nearly as fast as she's (even currently) capable of.

Just wait and watch and don't declare her a 1:5X athlete until you see how the full competitive year unfolds. And start popping some popcorn because there's every reason to believe she's gonna put on a show to remember this summer!

Armstronglivs wrote:

gernuu wrote:

African American females reach puberty earlier. Please stop trying to correct me.

It isnt a question of who arrives at puberty earlier but relative degrees of physical maturity in late teens. We see with many African athletes that they achieve a level of performance at around 18 more equivalent to Caucasians at a later age, that isnt explained solely by virtue of the fact they may be better athletes.

It is sometimes explained by the fact that they are not really 18. I am NOT the one who considers this subject relevant to Athing Mu. I am simply trying to enlighten some who are asserting falsehoods.

a lot of over analysis here

with a 50 second quarter and aerobic ability, you do well in the 800.

as a rookie, in the trials and og, with heats, a lot can go wrong.

if mu can peak at the right time, she'll be in the og finals.

along the way, you have the protegee effect.

where you hit the wall.

all is effect,

the thing with mu, is that she's on an upward retractile, and appears to be just now tapping into here potential.

as for PEDs, there is no testosterone, roids, and EPO, well that's probably out too.

with oxygen tents and altitude, you are talking world record.

these are the main factors

jelimo either had to be doped up to her eyeballs on various drugs,or else she was a DSD athlete,with some type of hyperandrogenism,or intersex condition.

You're talking her up so much, you sound like her agent!

I doubt her speed is what you say it is. When you talk of a 48-high 400 relay time as being possible, let's get that in perspective. Discounting the E Bloc athletes, the only runners who are in that region have been Felix, Miller-Uibo and Nasser (who has a doping violation). Felix and Miller-Uibo are 21.7-8 runners over 200. Mu is so far two full seconds slower, at 23.7. She might get down to 23-low but nowhere near 22-flat, which is what it would take to record the 400 time you estimate. Mu is not a sprinter.

Sprinters are not 800 runners, so the key again is how much endurance she acquires. I have said that comparisons with male athletes are not generally helpful, because they are such different athletes, but one comparison may be instructive. It is being assumed by some here that at her present age Mu would undoubtedly have up to 3secs if not 5secs improvement in her. At a similar age - 19 -Jim Ryun was a world record holder over 2 laps at 1.44.9 (1.44.2 equivalent for 800m). If he improved as much as people say Mu will then he would have run 1.41-low or even 1.39x. In the 1960's. He is also likely to have been an even greater talent than Mu, with greater endurance, being a world record holder also over the 1500m and mile.

There is a danger of too great expectations being placed on this young woman's shoulders.

And yet, she has run 49.54 relay split, fastest ever indoors. Also, she is a world U20 record holder for 400m, 600m and 800m indoors. Considering Mus talent of running indoors, she definitely could get that 800m indoors WR of 1:55.82 by Jolanda Ceplak.

The relay split is worth 50.3 from blocks - which is still very good. But that is a long way from Jarmila's 47.9. That's the kind of speed it might take to beat the 800 record, especially as Mu doesn't appear to have the endurance of an 800-1500 runner, like Ryun or Coe.

Not her agent, just an (admittedly biased) Aggie track fan who closely follows the program and knows the context of her training and racing much better than most others here. Indeed, I really want to see her stay in college and help A&M win some national titles over the coming years rather than go pro!

At any rate, you seem to be missing the larger relevant context for evaluating her performances and potential in the 800m.

First of all, it's totally irrelevant how well she has run open 200m (which she has not run since HS) and 400m races out of blocks. She's a tall lean athlete who is not good at starting from blocks, and no one uses blocks for the 800 regardless. The only relevant data point is what her top end speed is for 200 or 400 once she's a few steps in. And I guarantee you she can run at least 49 low and sub-23 outdoors when fresh and running from a flying start (again, she's already run 49.52 indoors[!] less than an hour after running an all-out championship 400 individually and she's split under 24 for the first 200 of her 400 even out of blocks).

Clearly, again, she has greater physical tools than any clean 800m athlete in history, and even greater physical tools than many drug cheats. Again, almost all of the top 200/400 runners in the past two decades have come through the NCAA system and run on top 4 x 400m teams (including Miller-Uibo, Richards-Ross, McLaughlin, Okolo, Ellis, and so on) and none of them ever ran an indoor split as fast as Mu.

Second, you keep evaluating her based on what she has run in the early spring as if she was peaking for the Michael Johnson Invite on April 17th rather than for NCAA Outdoors, the US Olympic Trials, and the Olympics in June and July. She ran 1:57.73 in her third collegiate 800, on a miserably cold and windy day, with no one within 3 seconds of her. That performance is worth 1:56 mid on a nice day with good competition. And that's where she's at in mid-April! In a program that has produced numerous NCAA champions in the 800m over the past decade and that knows how to have athletes ready to win or podium in mid-June.

Again, she's not topping out at 1:57.73 even now, let alone in June or July. She will be much closer to 1:54 in about 6-8 weeks time, and the gap you're so focused on will look much more manageable at that point.

But here's the bottom line: you should be able to see the potential (not a guarantee, or even an expectation, but potential) to threaten the WR (or at least Jelimo's dubious 1:54.01) simply from knowing that Mu ran 1:23.57 for 600m indoors as a 16-year old. It is just not that big of a stretch to think she could develop enough to cover another 200m in 30.4 seconds, especially if running outdoors in Monaco in a rabbited race that was set up to maximize her chances.

As I've already said numerous times, no one should expect that she's going to do this or place that pressure on her; but the idea that it's preposterous is simply not credible given all the evidence we have from her performances and development thus far. She's a generational transcendent talent and it's plainly obvious to anyone who really knows the context.

Excellent post and approach.

Idiots on LRC lack context - they look at a time and think that’s the end of that.

The fastest indoor relay split ever, a tactical 4:16, and a negative split 1:57high...

If someone watches those performances in context with her HS marks and STILL cannot see the bigger picture, why even post on this site and betray your ignorance to everyone else posting and lurking?

Better to stay quiet and watch Mu excel (of course, they’ll then claim that these were “expected” and they “predicted” the development)

Bunch of revisionist history mfs over here... stay consistent with your takes and energy.

Let’s go Mu🔥

jaboukomobile wrote:

Excellent post and approach.

Idiots on LRC lack context - they look at a time and think that’s the end of that.

The fastest indoor relay split ever, a tactical 4:16, and a negative split 1:57high...

If someone watches those performances in context with her HS marks and STILL cannot see the bigger picture, why even post on this site and betray your ignorance to everyone else posting and lurking?

Better to stay quiet and watch Mu excel (of course, they’ll then claim that these were “expected” and they “predicted” the development)

Bunch of revisionist history mfs over here... stay consistent with your takes and energy.

Let’s go Mu🔥

yep, all you need to know right there.,

You must be new here as you come with facts and a balanced analysis that even credits competitors and coaches. Seriously, the thoughtful discussion is much appreciated.

One element for Mu and also Hobbs Kessler, who ran 3:40 for 1500m today is that they are both undertrained and inexperienced. I know Mu ran age group club track for many years, but aside from national club meets, and the high school nats, she was not jumping in meets around the country chasing records. Neither one of these kids is a tactical cynical pro, rather they are both typical 18 year olds, who can't actually believe that they are this fast. Each time they race right now, they are experimenting with race tactics and testing the newfound limits of their bodies and training. This is naturally going to lead to mistakes and some screwed up splits and pacing.

There is even quite a bit of humor in here such as Mu running 4:16 in a dual meet, when I thought the last power 5 dual meet involved pre coming back from a fall on a cinder track. Similarly, Kessler improving his 2mile or from 9:52 to 8:37 is worth a chuckle. Like German Fernandez hustling to make the dinner shift at Applebees after his 4:01/8:34 double at thee state meet.

The point is that neither of these 2 kids were really under the microscope like other phenoms, think Webb, Hunter, Hasay, Touhy or even Young and Sprout. So I don't guarantee any particular level of performance for them and I am not worried about doping. I am enjoying following their results, and I am not shocked when they still improve in big 2-3 second chunks given where they are right now with both training and experience.