NXN 2023 Way too early preview: Dawn of a new Era

Carmel dominates the Indiana state meet

Herriman put 5 in the top 6 in the JV state meet. Won by a Herriman junior. 4th place (third for Herriman) is a sophomore. 3 Herriman varsity guys are coming back so next year looks dandy for them also

This season Niwot has 12 boys under 16 minutes for 5k and 14 under 16:05. None of them are seniors. Their varsity today was 1 freshman, 3 sophomores and 3 juniors. This year and the next few years for them look bright!

Sounds too good to be true. I hope they aren’t recruiting but instead developing their own talent.

Top three teams are:

Dana Hills

Great Oak

Oakdale

I would venture to say that Niwot is closer to Oakdale than to Dana or Great Oak.

They have 1 transfer out of the 14. Everyone else has had huge improvements year over year.

Niwot clears oakdale, behind dana hills though

I wouldn't say they clear. Going off speed rating Niwot averages 176.9 and Oakdale averages 175.5. Averages aren't everything and Oakdale benefits from a better low stick but it's definitely still close

Oakdale is 5-deep and they don’t have a 6th to back them up, so all of their top 5 need to do well when it matters or it’s game over for the team

This logic pretty much applies to every top 5 cal team this year outside of great oak

I think Niwot barely clears the California teams. They have a 15 second average lead on Rock Canyon. The most the top 2 California teams could do was 11 seconds on Rock Canyon at Woodbridge. Dana Hills could of probably cleared Rock Canyon by 13 seconds average. Niwot did 15 seconds. Niwot also has depth that the California teams do not have. Hard to say though we won’t know how they matchup until nxn

FYI since it is more likely that niwot is a step above the Cali teams, this should also put Niwot on the same level as Southlake Carroll / Belen Jesuit / Christian Brother Academy

Your opinion is flawed. Woodbridge was over a month ago and Dana was not even at full strength. You can’t really compare the two since at that point Woodbridge was the season opener for some varsity teams like Dana. Although speed ratings are not the end all be all, Niwot’s average speed rating is 176, Dana’s is 180. So on average, Dana is running 8 secs faster per runner. In a championship meet, that’s night and day.

Which is specifically why Dana Hills is ranked #6.

I'll believe the California teams are trash and won't finish top10 at NXN when I see it.

Would you VenturE to say that VenturA has a possibility of bouncing back and making it to the NXN VenuE?

They took second at Woodbridge. They probably would have taken third if Hernandez was allowed to race for Dana Hills.

But, I saw in another thread that Great Oak’s #1 (Westin Brown) is out for the season due to an injury, so this might give room for other teams to step up.

Ventura took 4th at Woodbridge.
Great Oak was 3rd, Dana was 5th.

Westin Brown's injury is a set back for GOHS, but they won Mt. Sac without him racing. They are a solid team.

Oh, I meant they were the #2 California team at Woodbridge

He probably meant as the second California team. And no Ventura will not make it to NXN. Their fifth needs to improve drastically. I’ll still go with

1) Dana

2) GO

3) Oakdale

I’ll wager that if anything, Dana will increase the gap and create more separation from GO, Oakdale, and SC. There’s a definite top tier and second tier in California and even a separation now between Dana and the rest.

Top Tier A

1) Dana Hills

Top Tier B

2) Great Oak

3) Oakdale

4) San Clemente

2nd Tier

5) Trabuco Hills

6) Mira Costa

7) Ventura

3rd Tier

8) Glendora

9) Jesuit

10) St. Francis