Yes. Whenever someone sets a national record, everyone agrees it is "really really bad".
You have to see the context here -when Nordås just did 27.31 it obviously wasn’t “really really bad”, but not as good as I think his potential is (this year). So my guesses is that he can do at least 15 sec faster with better preparation and an all out effort…Not bad for a guy who primarily dreams about the 1500m.
When it comes to Jakob it’s more complicated -yes, just like Nordås he wasn’t fully prepared for the 10k or the HM, so he can clearly run faster. But he is so far behind the top guys that he either needs to improve drastically to race the long events now, or just drop them until he is in a situation where he can focus on the right kind of training / preparation. Jakob fighting for the lesser medals even in Euros isn’t the right priority in my view. But maybe he is being saved by course reductions from 10k to 7.3k..?
Jakob doesn’t reveal every change he does in his training. My hope is that he has changed his summer training (without being very open about it) on the expense of 5/10k/HM strength, and that he later can find this strength. For now (and I will of course get a lot of down votes for this) he even might be regarded as a guy that struggles in the 5000m, seemingly because of lack of talent for the distance, but maybe only because of too thin summer training (maybe also because of his winter injury ). Yes, he has won three global clown races in the event against very light opposition, but was very lucky he didn’t lose against Nordås in the Nationals, that he probably would have done, if not his compatriot had front run almost the whole race in the wind (in order to help his other team mate achieve a qualifying mark). So under the right circumstances Jakob is very much capable of losing to a 13.05 guy. That’s how vulnerable he is in a distance he maybe doesn’t prioritises enough, under the right circumstances (that of course includes only 12.5 hours rest after an all out 1500m, and a Norwegian opponent that is totally unpredictable and extremely dangerous the few times he gets it right).
Can Jakob break the WR in the 5000m despite my remarks above? Sure, who knows what a change in training / focus can bring.. But for now I see no indications of a WR capability what so ever; both in the 5000/10000m he seems vulnerable to be smashed once he meets a good enough competitor in peak shape…
This, ladies and gentlemen, is what mental illness looks like. 71 year old man posting 12 times, for 35 minutes straight, about a runner he dislikes, and arguing with several strangers online.
This, ladies and gentlemen, is yet another demonstration of the Dunning Kruger effect. You should only post about those you like and you should ignore the fact that all exchanges are with strangers online.
Yes. Whenever someone sets a national record, everyone agrees it is "really really bad".
No, they don't. They simply point out that some national records don't amount to much. But the actual race was a HM. No national records or anything else there.
This post was edited 2 minutes after it was posted.
Looks like we have reached a repeat modus here. So only to the “new” thing when it comes to road races: What I meant was that because of the shoes, money and focus there’s quite a development in the 5k/10k + the other road races right now. And being with the leaders less than half of a distance isn’t impressing given the context in my view. But you may find it good and promising, whereas I don’t. But changes in mindset and training might of course give changes in performance…
In my view, you are not in the given context. You are analyzing this as if it were a normal important race for Jakob. Jakob told us it was not a normal race, but simply a test:
"I'm looking forward to test myself in the half-marathon for the first time, in Copenhagen."
"Normally this is a distance that would suit my training very well but after a long season on the track working towards the 1500m, it’s exciting to see if I even can reach the finish line!"
Was he very "excited" to reach the finish line?
This post was edited 1 minute after it was posted.
Before listening to anything Jakob says, what should we predict he would do in a half-marathon, simply by analyzing his season, one month after the Olympics, and two days after a Diamond League final?
One reasonable prediction is that, given Jakob's aggressive mentality, he would want to try to go with the leaders and stick with them for as long as he can. But given the heavy focus on 1500m and 5000m training, and a long season of racing, in races that last at most 13+ minutes, he will not be able to stay with the leaders at race pace for one hour, lacking the specific training and buildup, and not being fresh. Many runners better than Jakob would simply DNF once they lost contact with the leaders.
It's not that I took his suggestion seriously starting from a blank page, but that is a suggestion I would make about any "1500m/5000m" runner who jumps into a half-marathon two days after the Diamond League final -- before he told us anything. His words simply confirm what I already thought before he said it. In normal times, his training is suited for longer distances, but not "after a long season on the track working towards the 1500m".
So he was less certain than a hobby jogger as to whether he could finish the race.
Very close to the Belarussian record: 28:35 vs. an intermediate 27:27.
If the event would have been a 10k, do you think his time would be the same, or faster, slower?
No New Zealander has ever run that fast, not on the road, not on the track. Also not the doped ones.
It seems down under even the dopers are just slow hobby joggers.
Some genetic issue?
So you're down to comparing Ingebrigtsen with "hobby joggers" because he isn't anywhere near world class over 10k. As has been pointed out, he would be lapped by Cheptegei.
He didn't "misjudge" the pace. He completely overestimated his capacity. Like a hobby jogger might.
He misjudged the pace by overestimating his capacity on the day. So?
You miss the point. A "misjudgment" by a professional isn't like the complete lack of realism a hobby jogger might show (most of whom actually manage to finish).