That is why you need to have the low sticks. At Nationals the NM team was going to be further back relative to NCSt's bg three runners because the race is more competitive. NM was never going to challenge a full strength NCSt. As it turned out, State lost Starliper and Shaw and Seymour was not in their top five, but when your big three are strong enough it leaves room for someone to step up, and that someone was Mareno.
Way Too Early Predictions for the 2022 WOMENS NCAA D1 XC Championships
College Running
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astro wrote:
That is why you need to have the low sticks. At Nationals the NM team was going to be further back relative to NCSt's bg three runners because the race is more competitive. NM was never going to challenge a full strength NCSt. As it turned out, State lost Starliper and Shaw and Seymour was not in their top five, but when your big three are strong enough it leaves room for someone to step up, and that someone was Mareno.
or another way (I think) of saying it if you have the real low sticks you are less exposed to the displacement back a little where runners are closer.
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I wonder why Valby is the only athlete whose championship meet score is not factored into her Lacctic rating?
Valby's rating is still just based on Barrios and SEC. Everyone else is updated. Weird.
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FastTuohy wrote:
I thought NM would be closer to NC State, but NC State scored about what I thought with 3rd and 4th higher, and their 5th a little lower. NM pack time relative to the leaders seemed about as expected, but the whole packs placement was displaced back by Asekol, Roarck, Harrington, Donahue and Bush and partially by Baran. Only Van Camp and Frentheway who I had about even with the NM runners placed further back than I would have thought. So, NC State wins with help from many other runners. Asekol and Harrington had not shown they were at this level all year and I may have misjudged the others.
Bush was the key here...at 4km she was in the middle of the NM runners. I was expecting her to finish behind the top 2 NM runners. But she passed the NM top 2 runners plus several other places in the last km. By passing the 2 NM runners she gained 4 pts over NM alone....and then by passing another 7 runners - she gained a massive amount of Points directly against the second place team in the last KM.
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Blank231 wrote:
I wonder why Valby is the only athlete whose championship meet score is not factored into her Lacctic rating?
Valby's rating is still just based on Barrios and SEC. Everyone else is updated. Weird.
Even weirder is the absence of a single NCAA athlete in the Women's Cross Country division of today's updated World Athletics rankings. Does anyone know why athletes are awarded WA ranking points for NCAA Outdoor Champs but nothing for XC Nats?
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Blank231 wrote:
I wonder why Valby is the only athlete whose championship meet score is not factored into her Lacctic rating?
Valby's rating is still just based on Barrios and SEC. Everyone else is updated. Weird.
I suspect the logic treats it as an outlier despite the importance of the meet. I think the real issue is the prior race ratings were too fast due to the courses being easy for all runners. I keep shaking my head with her running over 1 minute faster at SEC meet. I think Bijan is working on this.
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Jedsdead wrote:
FastTuohy wrote:
I thought NM would be closer to NC State, but NC State scored about what I thought with 3rd and 4th higher, and their 5th a little lower. NM pack time relative to the leaders seemed about as expected, but the whole packs placement was displaced back by Asekol, Roarck, Harrington, Donahue and Bush and partially by Baran. Only Van Camp and Frentheway who I had about even with the NM runners placed further back than I would have thought. So, NC State wins with help from many other runners. Asekol and Harrington had not shown they were at this level all year and I may have misjudged the others.
Bush was the key here...at 4km she was in the middle of the NM runners. I was expecting her to finish behind the top 2 NM runners. But she passed the NM top 2 runners plus several other places in the last km. By passing the 2 NM runners she gained 4 pts over NM alone....and then by passing another 7 runners - she gained a massive amount of Points directly against the second place team in the last KM.
I agree Bush was a big piece - probably at least 10 points vs what I estimated....but there were others who did largely the same. My point really is that NM ran as well as I expected (and their coach thought they ran well too) but they suffered from others overperforming.
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For those like me that did not like the offical splits being at odd intervals I worked up this Google Sheets workbook which divides the splits into even kilometers. On the team charts tab you can select any team and see how their runners did and their 1-5 spread by kilometer. Parker Valby is displayed for a reference, but any runner in the race could be that reference. The formatting of the chart legends suffered a bit, and the update of the chart titles (which should change with the team selection) got lost between Excel where I created it and Google Sheets.
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