Not even entirely sure where you are going with all this.
1. Rocky dominated their state meet, and lost by 50 points to a team ranked #7 in the nation at the time, and by 28 points to a team ranked 4th in the nation at the time. That's like getting 4th or worst case scenario, 5th at Woodbridge, yet nobody thinks those teams aren't national caliber.
2. Agree that wins at bad meets don't mean anything, but disagree that big meets mean much. Head to head matchups should be ~10-20% of the equation when giving out at larges, unless a team was demonstratably sick (or something of that nature) at their NXR.
3. No? What? When did I ever say that, or anything like that?
It’s insane to me that there is this much talk about a team who has a guy who has run a 163 speed rating three times and no faster as their number 5, has a 171 level number 3, a number 2 that has never run closer than 10 points to his season’s best speed ranking on the NXR qualifying course in 3 attempts (has not cracked 170 on this course), and that has lost to a team that won’t even sniff the top 5 at the Utah State meet, much less NXR SW.
Rocky Mountain parents, runners, and probably coaches are getting on here and talking about how awesome they are. Their haters are getting on here talking about how they aren’t that good. The reality is that they are a great state level team and a good regional team and will probably be top 4 at NXR NW but they appear to be far from a qualifying team.
If head to head only counts for 10-20% of the equation, then every team that can dominate their state meet should just duck competition all year and can point to their bad to mid level quality meet wins as how dominant they are. Teams that think they are NXR should race schedules that give themselves a shot to prove it. If the coaches want to pitch it as keeping the team together, figure out how to travel to a quality meet or run the risk of getting your butt handed to you at your home course at the only truly big, quality invite on your schedule.
It’s insane to me that there is this much talk about a team who has a guy who has run a 163 speed rating three times and no faster as their number 5, has a 171 level number 3, a number 2 that has never run closer than 10 points to his season’s best speed ranking on the NXR qualifying course in 3 attempts (has not cracked 170 on this course), and that has lost to a team that won’t even sniff the top 5 at the Utah State meet, much less NXR SW.
Rocky Mountain parents, runners, and probably coaches are getting on here and talking about how awesome they are. Their haters are getting on here talking about how they aren’t that good. The reality is that they are a great state level team and a good regional team and will probably be top 4 at NXR NW but they appear to be far from a qualifying team.
If head to head only counts for 10-20% of the equation, then every team that can dominate their state meet should just duck competition all year and can point to their bad to mid level quality meet wins as how dominant they are. Teams that think they are NXR should race schedules that give themselves a shot to prove it. If the coaches want to pitch it as keeping the team together, figure out how to travel to a quality meet or run the risk of getting your butt handed to you at your home course at the only truly big, quality invite on your schedule.
My name is Craig Dunn from Dana Hills High School in CA and I have been coaching at Dana Hills since 2000, Dana has been on all sides of the spectrum for NXN’s from top two with an automatic berth, 3rd and left out, 4th and got in. I have lived it all and will agree that the process is not perfect, but tell me some object process that is. I can appreciate that Nike has allowed this opportunity for teams across the US the chance to find out who truly is the best team/individual in the nation. They do an amazing job of not just promoting their event, but making teams/individuals feel important as they are the future of our sport. For those that don’t know, regional reps communicate to schools about expectations, and the process that it takes to make NXN’s. CA’s regional rep let it be known in our conference call (that included all NXN hopefuls), that the committee selecting at-large teams will be looking at what teams did in a high pressure situation against other high caliber teams. We were informed that if you are a 3rd/4th place team in your region, you should better your odds of being selected by competing and doing well against other high rated teams. Once again, the process is not perfect, but the rules/standards are put out there. Just My 2 Cents (which is probably worth less), Craig Dunn
So not some arbitrary resume like others claim. You want in, go prove you belong. If you don’t make that effort, don’t cry about how you didn’t get your shot.
If you have 3 coaches that ran D1, you think they would understand that concept.
If you are a good team and aren't satisfied with your resume coming into nxr, It is not too late to show that your team can perform well in high pressure situations. There is still the Mt. Sac Invitational coming up two weeks from now. It is the largest Invitational in the country, and all of the best Californias teams will be there!
I don't envy the runners running there, that course is a real pain and isn't as fun as woodbridge.
Checking some of the schedules of other teams, it looks like its too late. Most out of state teams are running their state championships around that time.
This post was edited 2 minutes after it was posted.
If you are a good team and aren't satisfied with your resume coming into nxr, It is not too late to show that your team can perform well in high pressure situations. There is still the Mt. Sac Invitational coming up two weeks from now. It is the largest Invitational in the country, and all of the best Californias teams will be there!
I don't envy the runners running there, that course is a real pain and isn't as fun as woodbridge.
Checking some of the schedules of other teams, it looks like its too late. Most out of state teams are running their state championships around that time.
All those meets are closed now. You need to commit at the latest in July or so.
There are 13 teams in their district. Only 4 did not travel out of state to a big invite. Borah, Middleton, Owyhee, and Rocky. Rocky is the only team that will qualify both groups to the state meet, and Owyhee will qualify the girls. Instead of Gary Ward, they could have gone Nike Portland, Nike Twilight, or the Battle for the 509. They traveled to Lewiston as an entire team so Spokane is definitely something they could have also swung this year. They could have run Border Wars instead of “Grizzly Sufferfest.” They could have run Ash Creek against Jesuit instead of Tiger Grizz. There are a lot of drivable meets that they opted to fill with meets that have Invitational in the name but are far from quality.
One benefit of traveling to big meets and running well there (especially qualifying for NXN), is that any runners that might be on the fringe of having the opportunity to run in college are more likely to get noticed. At some point, coaching staffs are choosing to place the feelings of 30 minute 5k boys that probably didn't show up all summer over the futures of guys that could probably get real looks at running.
If you don't want to travel only the fast kids, then say top 20 each gender get to go and anyone else that hit 50% attendance at summer running. Easy enough to do, and totally up to the kids to show up or not.
One benefit of traveling to big meets and running well there (especially qualifying for NXN), is that any runners that might be on the fringe of having the opportunity to run in college are more likely to get noticed. At some point, coaching staffs are choosing to place the feelings of 30 minute 5k boys that probably didn't show up all summer over the futures of guys that could probably get real looks at running.
If you don't want to travel only the fast kids, then say top 20 each gender get to go and anyone else that hit 50% attendance at summer running. Easy enough to do, and totally up to the kids to show up or not.
Having done recruiting work, I think too much emphasis gets placed on big meets. Outside of the top tier of NCAA teams, coaches are trying to start talking to athletes before they have their big breakout performance, because once the athlete has the break out performance, they will get alot of attention. Getting in before that performance builds an emotional bond and also gives an athlete the sense you belived they could do it, which makes it far more likely you will stay in their top choices when they get all the attention. Wheras if you first reached out after the big day, they are much more likely to ignore you other schools. I knew multiple kids that went to CSU over CU boulder because the CSU coach reached out earlier than Wetmore did.
Finding a few early season meets in a target state (generally non-pr courses) can help college coaches figure out who is going to have a breakout season before the big meets everyone sees. For example, National High School Trail Champs (generally end of july) in Colorado generally who gives a good sense of who is going to have a breakout year, and will start the conversation months earlier than if you wait for them to run well at Liberty Bell, St.vrain or desert twilight.
Jason Parra is going over to the northeast's Manhattan Invite. If he comes back with some insane speed rating, then we know northeast is overrated. This will be interesting
Manhattan Invitational actually features teams from 4 different regions. We can see how the teams stack up to each other speed rating wise. The whole Millikan and Santa Monica squad is going up there. We can compare speed ratings in California with speed ratings from the Northeast, Southeast, and New York which is super rare.
California Region Woodbridge / Clovis Millikan - 181,167,155,148,148,142,137 176,164,160,151,147,145,144
Santa Monica
Northeast Region - Bowdoin Classic Christian Brothers - 189,188,181,180,180,177,173 Brookline - 180,180,178,175,174,162, Westfield - 185,181,177,176,175
Southeast Region - Great American Festival Ridgefield - 190,175,174,172,165
New York - McQuaid Invitational Fairport - 183,177,174,170,168 Auburn - 181,180,170,170,162 Saratoga Springs - 178,172,170,169,164 Ithaca - 182,174,167,163,161
Jason Parra is going over to the northeast's Manhattan Invite. If he comes back with some insane speed rating, then we know northeast is overrated. This will be interesting
California Region Woodbridge / Clovis Millikan - 181 176
Christian Brothers - 189,188,181,180,180,177,173
I am Expecting 5-6 cba guys above Jason Parra considering that was their season opener, parra opened in 176
So obviously Herriman and American Fork are the best 2 teams in the Southwest, and the 3rd and 4th spot in the Southwest will be a fight between Riverton, Skyridge, Lone Peak, and Niwot, and they all deserve to be highly ranked nationally. The Classical Academy CO looks solid but I don’t think they will beat any of those teams. Should they be ranked nationally too?
I think It would be a mistake to count Belen, Southlake Carroll, and Christian Brothers out of the equation of national contender. Yes the main 2 are Herriman and American Fork, but it isn't unreasonable to think any of these 5 teams can win.
So I found a thread that says that, because Florida State meet and NXR are 2 days apart, Belen will be resting their 1-5 from NXR. State meet is a better place to run their 6-12. No way they finish in the top 3 at NXR with that group.
What do you guys think for the upcoming NXR southeast meet. Heard Belen Jesuit will be sitting out there 1-5, still believe they can get top 2(from a reliable source).
Southlake Carroll - 14:56, 14:59, 15:12, 15:13, 15:40, 15:41, 15:50 at districts Southlake Carroll had a faster 1-2 this year, but last year at districts they had a better 3-7. They are also lacking a 5th runner that they need to win NXN
