Way Too Early Predictions for the 2022 WOMENS NCAA D1 XC Championships

Did anyone post valby splits? I am interested if kt purely ran her down or if valby truly went out too fast and paid for it (maybe 4 to 5k split?) In other words was it a combo of fast kt anf valby sliwing down? Otherwise, what kt did just frustrates me as a mortal. You shouldn't be able to run an elite down from 13 sec back and not pay for it.

Valby did not slow down much....I would only say her last km got her...she just couldn't answer Tuohy's speed at the end. Valby ran about the same speed for the 2nd half as the first half.

Yeah that is what I was referring to. Someone else calculated it and she was pretty even pace to slightly faster for second half I thought.

Valby probably ran about a 9:40 first 3km...while tuohy would have been around 9:50. Tuohy knocked about 20sec off her first 3km

“Valby ran about the same speed for the 2nd half as the first half.“

Which is why she runs the race strategy she typically runs…

I was standing near the curve where KT passed PV on the way up the hill. PV did not look gassed — KT was simply stronger. Simple as that.

You can see Valby hits the corner after running behind the start line in 9:52. Last year they reported a 3K mark 2-3 seconds ahead of that corner. Not sure why they had the odd splits this year that they did - I know the men's and women's split locations are slightly different - but not from 4K on in the women's race (8K on in the men's). They reported Valby at 9:13.6 at "2,830" which would say about 9:46 at 3K at the pace they were running. So she at worst ran 9:46/9:45 but I think it was closer to 9:50/9:41. Maybe split the difference Tuohy was probably close to 9:56/9:32 as she was 8.5 sec back at the "2830" mark

All of which means…what?

It means I do not agree with the posters who said she ran 9:40/9:50.

Zzzzzz

Well that's insane. I don't know how she does it. Wouldn't all of us say the elite runner should runs even has the best chance?

No, that's not right.
Valby was on 19:33 pace at 2.85km which means her second half was about 2 seconds faster.

The splits are for each runner below. Valby was 9:13.6 at 2.83km which is 19:33.7 pace.
Thus she was 3 seconds faster over the second half of the race.

yeah, it would be close....I was going to go back and watch the 2020 race or the jamboree to see if they had a 3km line. At the jamboree, it looked about 25meters before that corner. Regardless she is somewhere in the even split range...I don't think it was negative. But super impressive still.

NM says they did as good as the possibly could.

Lost in the shuffle, BYU ran without Analee Weaver (transferred) and Hutchins (injured) Weaver finished at 53 which would have been 45 in team scoring. If Hutchins could have been with Brynn Brown, around 35, with these 2 BYU would have been less than 200 and beaten OSU for 4th podium spot......

You forgot Simone Plourde, 45th who transferred out of BYU.

BYU loses it’s #1 and #3 next year

We have to wait until April to see Hutchins first track race unfortunately.

thanks - that was a year ago I believe, but she would also have helped - still 4th I think, but clearly the losses will hurt even more next year

I thought NM would be closer to NC State, but NC State scored about what I thought with 3rd and 4th higher, and their 5th a little lower. NM pack time relative to the leaders seemed about as expected, but the whole packs placement was displaced back by Asekol, Roarck, Harrington, Donahue and Bush and partially by Baran. Only Van Camp and Frentheway who I had about even with the NM runners placed further back than I would have thought. So, NC State wins with help from many other runners. Asekol and Harrington had not shown they were at this level all year and I may have misjudged the others.