The Monday Big Discussion: After 31:55 10k Win in Stanford, how do you assess Gwen Jorgensen's Olympic chances?

rojo wrote:

.... Can you tell me how many elite 5’10 female marathoners there are? The shorter you are in the marathon, the better.

Right.....just like how 10 years ago there were no elite sprinters who were anywhere near 6 feet 4.8 inches, and we all know how that went for Usain Bolt.

She's only 2 inches taller than Paula, so i don't think it will be a problem. Maybe a bit slower responding to rapid speed changes, but anticipation/tactics can overcome that.

Watch the Race- - thank you Flotrack wrote:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qusrSYPCsNw

Thx Flotrack

Well she still runs like a triathlete so she's probably got some space for improvement in terms of form.

Eyeroll wrote:

rojo wrote:

.... Can you tell me how many elite 5’10 female marathoners there are? The shorter you are in the marathon, the better.

Right.....just like how 10 years ago there were no elite sprinters who were anywhere near 6 feet 4.8 inches, and we all know how that went for Usain Bolt.

She's only 2 inches taller than Paula, so i don't think it will be a problem. Maybe a bit slower responding to rapid speed changes, but anticipation/tactics can overcome that.

I was 5 feet 11.5 inches and once held the world record for the marathon.

Jefe in the CO wrote:

[quote]Ummmm wrote:

The thing about the Olympic marathon is that the East Africans are not fully vested in the race. If they even get the slightest indication that it might not be their day they'll contract the claws so that they can come back for a real payday in the fall marathons. This really opens the door for someone like Hassay or Jorgensen.

Hmm so the Olympic marathon is a joke... Then let's convince her to run where the true championship is... Berlin

As we all know, 6' 5" sprinters now dominate the sport.

Bolt was the EXCEPTION, not the RULE.

Not sure if it's been said, but Jorgensen was dealing with a small achilles problem, which is why she ran in the 4%, so it should be noted she ran 31:55 and made that look easy, while beating Karissa Scwheizer, which she somehow made look even easier, while not at 100%

Tokyo Olympic marathon could be hot and humid as hell! How does Gwen J do in those conditions?

I keep thinking of when Shorter asked Giegengack "How good could I be if I really went for it?" or "What would happen if I started running 80 miles a week instead of the 40 that I'm doing now?" Maybe the best is yet to come for Gwen!

Baby-doping comments were very interesting.

Gwen in NOT 5'10." She's more like 5'9"

I'm gonna win the Gold Medal at the 2020 Olympics is nothing buy a marketing ploy. She needs to make $$$ now that she is getting older. That's all she is doing. She knows she won't win a medal.

Look at her Youtube videos. Not your normal video but actually a presentation made by a professional who knows how to make good films. She pays Talbot Cox and he does a great job.

Gwen has succeeded in getting a lot of attention and phase one is now complete. She has a new Nike contract and a new BTC contract.

Yes, she is a very good runner and has now become more popular.

San Diego hobby jogger wrote:

Jefe in the CO wrote:

[quote]Ummmm wrote:

The thing about the Olympic marathon is that the East Africans are not fully vested in the race. If they even get the slightest indication that it might not be their day they'll contract the claws so that they can come back for a real payday in the fall marathons. This really opens the door for someone like Hassay or Jorgensen.

Hmm so the Olympic marathon is a joke... Then let's convince her to run where the true championship is... Berlin

Gee whiz, can't you use a spell checker? You completely misspelled London.

SlowFatMaster wrote:

Tokyo Olympic marathon could be hot and humid as hell! How does Gwen J do in those conditions?

.

Rio was crispy cold I'm sure....

I think she'll be able to run sub-2:20 by the time of the Olympics, and she'll probably be the top American marathoner by then. She might get an Olympic medal, but I very much doubt it will be gold or silver.

Based on watching that 10,000 and her history, I give her a much better chance than most of you. Though she is going for gold, as most successful athletes are ultimately going for, I would consider any medal a success, and would certainly quiet critics of her going for gold. She just has that look of someone who is determined and "has it", that you see in few runners. I watched the last five laps, and she just had the look of being in control - I already knew she won, but if I had watched it live, I would have picked her for sure. And she could really roll with those long legs, kind of like Radcliffe. I think she has the endurance to roll the marathon distance.

Her size won't be a detriment in the heat. Larger people generally have less surface area for their mass, which is the reason for poorer relative performance in the heat. But she is skinny AF. Her thighs are tiny compared to Dimoff's and Schweizzer's. She won't have any trouble in the heat.

I think only Hasay is close to a lock for the next Olympic team (maybe more than 66% chance). Unlike a lot of you, I'm not convinced that Huddle will make the team. I could be wrong, but my hunch is that Huddle won't match her shorter distance performances in the marathon, like Mo Farah or Tadesse. I think Gwen has a great chance to make the US team, maybe between a 20%-40% chance.

The Kenyans and Ethiopians have never been locks to dominate the World Championship or Olympic marathons. Amy Cragg getting 3rd in 2017, an Italian and Japanese in 2-3 in 2013, a Chinese and Japanese in 1-2 in 2009, a Romanian and Chinese in 1-3 in 2008, a Japanese and Deena Kastor in 1-3 in 2004 are examples. The US has maybe a 20% chance to put someone on the podium. If Gwen makes the team, I'd give her 50/50 of being the top American at the Olympics. Her overall chances to medal, using my guesses would be 0.3x0.2x0.5 = 3%. But it's not just a numbers game. Some people just have "it", and will take control/steamroll others in their way, and I think she has it. Therefore, I think she has a better than 3% chance to medal. To put it another way, I wouldn't be surprised if she medaled or even won gold. I also wouldn't be surprised if she didn't make the team.

I’d say highly likely if she can get to the start line healthy, she wouldn’t have blown out a candle at the finish. Biggest question mark, is the marathon her optimal distance - I doubt it.

What?

Huddle has the American record in the road 5k, half marathon, and 10000m. She used to have the American record in the 5000m on the track, but rowbury broke her record.

So what do you mean Huddle can’t match her shorter distance pace? It is clearly the other way around. Huddle is a 30 min 5000M runner. Gwen is closer to 32 mins.

With 10000m or 5000m to go, or half marathon and even marathon, Gwen does not stand a chance against huddle.

This is just getting out of hand.

Scorpion_runner wrote:

What?

Huddle has the American record in the road 5k, half marathon, and 10000m. She used to have the American record in the 5000m on the track, but rowbury broke her record.

So what do you mean Huddle can’t match her shorter distance pace? It is clearly the other way around. Huddle is a 30 min 5000M runner. Gwen is closer to 32 mins.

With 10000m or 5000m to go, or half marathon and even marathon, Gwen does not stand a chance against huddle.

This is just getting out of hand.

Did you miss that my comparison with Tadesse? What good has the HM WR done for him in the marathon? I just have a hunch, could be wrong, that Huddle won't be as good in the marathon as she has been at shorter distances. Lots of great runners don't handle the marathon as well as they do shorter distances. Ritzenhein is another. He's had a handful of decent marathons, but just as often cramps up in them as well.

Citing 5k or 10K speed in the closing 5K or 10K of a marathon means you don't know what you are talking about. Tadesse's amazing 10K and HM chops has done nothing for him in the marathon. Not saying that Gwen has proven to be a better marathoner than Huddle yet. But that is something that might take only one race to demonstrate, as Hasay's debut showed.

Debut marathon in 228 on a difficult course while running alone for the second half of the race with the last mile faster than any women in the race and coming in third have already demonstrated her competence in the marathon.

George213 wrote:

Debut marathon in 228 on a difficult course while running alone for the second half of the race with the last mile faster than any women in the race and coming in third have already demonstrated her competence in the marathon.

That's like saying for a guy, "Debut marathon in 2:15 on a difficult course while running alone for the second half of the race with the last mile faster than any man in the race and coming in third have already demonstrated his competence in the marathon." 2:28 for a women is about 2:15 for a guy in percentage back from the respective WRs.

Huddle hasn't shown anything yet in the marathon that compares to her half marathon and shorter abilities. Maybe she will, but at this point, she hasn't shown it. Like I've said, it's my hunch that she won't be as good in the marathon, just as a lot of other shorter distance stars haven't been able to. We each have our opinions, and that's mine for now.

Actually it's more like 2:12 high to 2:13 flat for guys, if you use the women-only WR.

I think rupp has already proven he's as good in the marathon (Olympic bronze, major marathon wins) and his first marathon wasn't much faster than that. 2:11 or something if I remember correctly and the course isn't nearly as tough as NYC.

They haven't been able to because they never give it a serious go or they have already been plagued with injuries or the father time when they try moving up.