The Monday Big Discussion: After 31:55 10k Win in Stanford, how do you assess Gwen Jorgensen's Olympic chances?

My main takeaway from our discussion during the conference call: I think Gwen Jorgensen has a better chance to make the Olympic marathon team now than I did five months ago. Her 15:15 indoors was incredibly impressive, and while 31:55 isn’t a time that will have people going crazy, Jorgensen said her main aim at Stanford was to win and she did that fairly comfortably.

Remember, last year Shalane Flanagan ran 31:38 in her first race of the year at the Portland Track Festival and won the NYC Marathon five months later. The comparison isn’t perfect -- Flanagan was just returning after an extended injury break -- but Jorgensen also had some things working against her (giving birth in August, switching from triathlon to running full-time).
I agree with Weldon that there’s still a long way to go, but more than anything, it makes me excited for the 2020 Olympic Trials. Or I should say, even more excited, because the Olympic Trials are always awesome. Jorgensen is a high-ceiling athlete who will add an element of uncertainty to the race, and she’s already shown an ability to get it done on the biggest stage (albeit in triathlon). I view Jorgensen’s potential as similar to that kid in high school who played soccer in the fall but then comes out and shocks the full-time runners with a big kick to win the state meet in the mile.

At first I was going to say this: Jorgensen - who is amazing by the way in so many ways (how she is competing so well so close to childbirth blows my mind) - has already accomplished more in running than I thought she ever would. But I like to let facts, not emotions, rule the day so I went back and read what I wrote about her in November when it was announced she was going to become a full-time runner.

Back then, I noted her 10-mile PB was worth 2:28 or 2:29 in the marathon and 31:50-32:10 for 10k (and she’d run 32:12 in a road 10k before). Well guess what - she just ran 31:55 and beat a 2:30 marathoner at Stanford. So I’m not stunned by the 10k (I’m very surprised she beat Schweizer). The 5000 time, on the other hand ,really surprised me.
The big concern I have now is, “Is she better at shorter distances than longer distances, which will be a big problem in the marathon?”

I am one of the 18,000+ people to have watched her pre-race YouTube video and in it she said she was hoping to do a half marathon but coach Jerry Schumacher didn’t think she was ready for it. Plus she’s 5’10. Can you tell me how many elite 5’10 female marathoners there are? The shorter you are in the marathon, the better.

But looking at the big picture, her first few races have me more interested in following her than before and I was already into her story. This clearly isn’t some joke just to get money like Conor McGregor fighting Floyd Mayweather. Big picture, I still think her odds of Olympic gold in the marathon - which is her self-professed goal - are zero and think the goal should be to make an Olympic team as a runner.

Making the Olympics seems doable - only 9 US women broke 15:15 last year and in 2016 - but I don’t think she’ll make it as a marathoner. Even if Flanagan retires before the 2020 Trials, she’s not beating Hasay, Cragg, or Huddle.

I have to say that I’m very impressed by what Jorgensen has done so far as a full-time runner. Running 15:15 and 31:55 is better than I would have predicted she’d have run so soon. When she originally announced that she wanted to win Olympic gold in the marathon I gave her zero chance. I did acknowledge that she had a shot at making the Olympic team though, but said I would "be shocked and extremely impressed" if she did. Now that it’s five months later, has anything she’s done changed my mind? Well, no. I still give her zero chance to win Olympic gold and I still think she has a shot at making the USA marathon team, but it’s a longshot.

Her chances haven’t improved a ton in my eyes, because I would have never tried to argue that she wasn't capable of running these kind of times to begin with. As Rojo said, they are in line with what she should be capable of. However, being genetically capable of something and then actually getting the fitness and executing the race to do it are two different things. Considering the fact she's coming off childbirth, switching from the triathlon, and that she ran 15:15 in an indoor 5000 in February, I’m a little surprised. A lot could have gone wrong at this point, but it hasn’t.

So while she hasn’t done enough to make me think she can beat Hasay, Cragg, or Huddle to make the Olympic marathon team, I do think she might have a better shot at making it in the 5000 where competition at the US-level isn’t as deep. Basically, if she’s running 15:15 indoors with all she had working against her, you have to think she at least has a shot at knocking on the door of 15-flat by outdoors (certainly by outdoors in 2020). And if you’re a low-15 5000 woman, you have a chance at making the US team. Looking back at the 2016 Trials, Kim Conley made it to Rio and her PB is only 15:08, so Jorgensen already isn’t too far off. Maybe she should think about switching focus to the track or at least keep that as a backup plan if she doesn’t make it at the marathon. She isn’t going to win Olympic gold at that distance either, but she just might win a free ticket to Tokyo.

A few final comments here from me before opening up to others where we will keep chiming in.

1. Rojo says, “Even if Flanagan retires before the 2020 Trials, she’s not beating Hasay, Cragg, or Huddle.” You state it as a fact, but someone can get hurt, have an off day, etc. Two years is a long way from now and Jorgensen has the most upside with two more years of running training. If she’s the 4th best person heading into the Trials, that is all she really could ask for.

2. I think we’re nitpicking Jorgensen’s time a little too much. It’s not inconceivable all-out she could have run 31:30 this weekend. So couldn’t she be a sub-31 runner by 2020? Only 4 US women have ever run under 31 minutes. Jordan Hasay's PB is 31:39, Amy Cragg’s 31:10. So the real question is how does she take to the marathon? Hasay, in particular, has shown that the marathon is a completely different beast than the 10,000m.

3. Steve says the 5,000m might be her best shot to make an Olympic running team, and while I agree that might be the case (or the 10,000m), I don’t think she’ll try to go that route. There’s way more money in the marathon and she has no shot at a medal at those events, so her chances for being a world beater are in the marathon. Plus, I’ve heard there might be some backdoor way for her to make the Olympics in the triathlon if this doesn’t work out. Can some triathlon person on the the thread in the forums tell us how that would work?

DNS

I'd like to hear from triathletes on how/when it would be feasible for her to go back to triathlon. I don't think it will happen but would like to know more about the process.

On a personal note I loved that they went to In N Out after the race.
http://www.letsrun.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/Screenshot-2018-04-02-at-12.16.07.png

And on a professional level I wish all runners did media like Gwen's team. They sent us photos from the race to use and produced pre and post-race videos.

Here's the video of Gwen after the race (set to start when she talks about the race)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=208&v=bgQpeuH0k7g

And it looks like they flew a drone over the track during the race?!

I'm not convinced this tells us anything other than what we already know: Gwen is incredibly competent at the 5k/10k distance(s).

We were never worried about her aerobic ceiling/potential. The last several years of her tri career should tell anyone paying even the remotest amount of attention all they wanted to know in that regard. But we do know now that her 5k/10k speed is quite in the ballpark of her peers.

Call me a hater/questioner, but I don't think Gwen is built for the thon, and her extreme talents lie elsewhere. Good luck to her though and I hope I am wrong. There are countless 10k'ers that just don't make it on the road circuit at the full and she wouldn't be the first to struggle with the distance.

Best of luck to you Gwen, but I dont think anyone ever had any doubts about your 10k capability if they were paying any attention to you the last few years. This performance hasn't moved the needle. I'd defer any oly trial guesses until we see a couple more thons.

I don't think Gwen plans to attempt the triathlon again. Just from reading her last blog alone it's clear she wasn't ever that into triathlon in the first place, so why go back just to chase something she already has (gold medal)?

it might be to $ in on sponsorship dollars in an olympic year as the primary motivation. of course to keep that as a backup, she'd have to get back into the pool/on the bike no more than 2 years out [eg now]

If I recall, Shalane was thinking NYC was going to be her last race, until she won it. Regardless, I do not think she will be toeing the line for the 2020 trials.

Amy Cragg will be 36 by that time. That is right around when Deena Kastor lost a step or two and didn't make London. Now maybe she will be like Meb and be running good. I don't think she is a lock to make the 2020 team.

Huddle I think has only run one marathon, a nice 228 in NYC. Certainly she has the credentials to go faster, but she will also be 35. She could be in PR shape or maybe struggle to hit 230.

Hasay, yea has age and ability on her side, seems as near a lock as there is for 2020.

So considering all that and the fact that Gwen is probably already in 228ish shape, I think she has a real chance at making the team. She has experienced the pressures of big time racing and that will help a bunch against a lot of the younger women who are going to be in that same 228 ish range but without championship experience.

If she makes the team, I also wouldn't say she has zero percent chance to win a gold medal. It's certainly very low, but the only way you can have zero chance is to not be in the race. Remember Meb in Boston? To make the team she would almost certainly need to be sub 225 shape, and depending on how well she can close a marathon, that would give her a "puncher's chance" in the right race.

Since when are the marathon and 5K/10K options mutually exclusive? If the OTM doesn't work out, she can turn her focus to the track and quite possibly make the team in one of those events. Talk of her going back to the triathlon is silly.

She has already made the most important decision in optimizing her potential: joining BTC.

She got into triathlons as a runner/swimmer. She was a big 10 champ at 3k and 5k. So, she is not in totally unfamiliar territory like a more cycling oriented triathlete would be. Thus, a very strong 10k should not be a complete surprise. But it is definitely a good sign as far as being a marathon predictor. There is no reason why she should not be able to run in the upper 2:20s. So, the real issue will be whether she can get in enough racing experience to be ready to take on what could be a very competitive women's trials with Huddle, Hasay and Hastings all being capable of running low 2:20s.

The National Olympic Committee for each member country can select who represents, so in theory it would be possible for USAT to select Gwen. Typically however, athletes have not been "selected" in this manner in the USA, though we haven't had a defending Gold medalist before! It has always been through a selection process based on results at specific predetermined races.

Chris Chavez has an article out when he spoke to her before Stanford.

Sounds like she won't even consider going back. She didn't like triathlon training that much but LOVES running.

"I liked doing the triathlon but I would say that I love running. When I was training for the Rio Olympics, it was really hard to get in that pool every day. I used to love swimming but during that four-year cycle, I just dreaded getting in the water. It was really hard. There was just a few things like that where I didn’t feel like my motivation was right and I feel like I haven’t reached my potential in running and I haven’t given running a shot. That’s something that I want to do."

And this:
Chris: "It sounds like the total champion’s mindset. There’s no Plan B right now?"
Gwen:"Zero. When I was making this decision on triathlon or running, I talked to a few people including family members and coaches. Somebody said that maybe after a year or two if I saw it wasn’t working out then I could go back to the triathlon and have enough time to get fit enough. "

When I hear she could go back it was from triathlon people talking how it was possible, not that she would do it.

**
And Steve's "Zero chance" of winning Olympics made the interview. Sine our motto is "Where your dreams become reality" I don't like it when people say "Zero chance" or maybe he should say less than 1/1,000. Something like that.

But if she were to make team, we underestimate weird chances. The Kenyan team could sick, etc. So if Steve thinks she can make team which she does, her odds of winning Olympics aren't zero but I can see how he says Zero instead of less than 1 percent.

Chri's article here: https://www.si.com/edge/2018/04/02/gwen-jorgensen-triathlon-track-debut-marathon-goals-nike

My couple of thoughts as someone who married a woman who is a former elite endurance athlete and who had two children is that my wife and a lot of other women who are serious athletes experience a rather noticeable jump in performance shortly after they stop nursing. Gwen may have another increment of performance improvement when she gets to that point. We have no idea how Gwen will deal with that last 10K of a marathon, and won't until she runs one. That is where the metabolic difference between really good marathoners and good 10K/ 1/2 marathoners shows up. Finally, it is interesting to see that you all have mentally written off Desi Linden as one of our top couple of marathoners. Healthy and fully trained she still may be a 2:23-2:25 performer.

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wejo wrote:

Chris Chavez has an article out when he spoke to her before Stanford.

Sounds like she won't even consider going back. She didn't like triathlon training that much but LOVES running.

"I liked doing the triathlon but I would say that I love running. When I was training for the Rio Olympics, it was really hard to get in that pool every day. I used to love swimming but during that four-year cycle, I just dreaded getting in the water. It was really hard. There was just a few things like that where I didn’t feel like my motivation was right and I feel like I haven’t reached my potential in running and I haven’t given running a shot. That’s something that I want to do."

And this:
Chris: "It sounds like the total champion’s mindset. There’s no Plan B right now?"
Gwen:"Zero. When I was making this decision on triathlon or running, I talked to a few people including family members and coaches. Somebody said that maybe after a year or two if I saw it wasn’t working out then I could go back to the triathlon and have enough time to get fit enough. "

When I hear she could go back it was from triathlon people talking how it was possible, not that she would do it.

**
And Steve's "Zero chance" of winning Olympics made the interview. Sine our motto is "Where your dreams become reality" I don't like it when people say "Zero chance" or maybe he should say less than 1/1,000. Something like that.

But if she were to make team, we underestimate weird chances. The Kenyan team could sick, etc. So if Steve thinks she can make team which she does, her odds of winning Olympics aren't zero but I can see how he says Zero instead of less than 1 percent.

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I wonder how many other Olympic gold medalists have done so in events they don't really like that much? I know Usain craves to be a footballer, but it's not like he "dreaded" putting on the spikes....

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wejo wrote:
...

But if she were to make team, we underestimate weird chances. The Kenyan team could sick, etc. So if Steve thinks she can make team which she does, her odds of winning Olympics aren't zero but I can see how he says Zero instead of less than 1 percent.

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I've always thought that certain sports/events "find" the people that will be best at them, and then when an individual finds success in one vs another they tend to stick with it as that's how our society works [winner take all]

this case doesn't seem to be much like that at all--Gwen reached the peak of her sport in a dominant fashion and is now chasing a backup goal with nothing to prove.

Very much like Jordan's transition to baseball but completely unlike Tebow's. He left at the top with absolutely nothing to prove rather than a question to himself regarding how far he might be able to go in baseball. He answered that question. [Where Tebow is just looking for a job imho]