I have to say that I’m very impressed by what Jorgensen has done so far as a full-time runner. Running 15:15 and 31:55 is better than I would have predicted she’d have run so soon. When she originally announced that she wanted to win Olympic gold in the marathon I gave her zero chance. I did acknowledge that she had a shot at making the Olympic team though, but said I would "be shocked and extremely impressed" if she did. Now that it’s five months later, has anything she’s done changed my mind? Well, no. I still give her zero chance to win Olympic gold and I still think she has a shot at making the USA marathon team, but it’s a longshot.
Her chances haven’t improved a ton in my eyes, because I would have never tried to argue that she wasn't capable of running these kind of times to begin with. As Rojo said, they are in line with what she should be capable of. However, being genetically capable of something and then actually getting the fitness and executing the race to do it are two different things. Considering the fact she's coming off childbirth, switching from the triathlon, and that she ran 15:15 in an indoor 5000 in February, I’m a little surprised. A lot could have gone wrong at this point, but it hasn’t.
So while she hasn’t done enough to make me think she can beat Hasay, Cragg, or Huddle to make the Olympic marathon team, I do think she might have a better shot at making it in the 5000 where competition at the US-level isn’t as deep. Basically, if she’s running 15:15 indoors with all she had working against her, you have to think she at least has a shot at knocking on the door of 15-flat by outdoors (certainly by outdoors in 2020). And if you’re a low-15 5000 woman, you have a chance at making the US team. Looking back at the 2016 Trials, Kim Conley made it to Rio and her PB is only 15:08, so Jorgensen already isn’t too far off. Maybe she should think about switching focus to the track or at least keep that as a backup plan if she doesn’t make it at the marathon. She isn’t going to win Olympic gold at that distance either, but she just might win a free ticket to Tokyo.