Canova: "By two more marathons, [Bekele] will be under 2:03"

butt... wrote:

fan of US distance running wrote:

Bekele hasn't broken 2:03:57. You're taking objection with a statement based on something that hasn't yet happened. This is an absurd way to view things.

Much like how you take objection with things others say BECAUSE they haven't happened yet. This is a two-way street, buddy.

What are you talking about?

I'm criticizing someone because they're basing an argument on something that hasn't yet happened.

In a discussion regarding who is the greatest of all time, we rate athletes based on what they have accomplished.

To rate athletes based on what you think they will accomplish in the future but have not yet accomplished, and then use that rating to state they're better than someone else, is absurd behavior.

What part of this are you confused about?

Coach Canova is a great coach and I admire his training techniques especially in the marathon but on this one I completely disagree with him! I believe Bekele's greatness ended in 2009 and what we have of him is just a guy with a strong determination but with a body that cannot match his spirit. One of two results for him tomorrow: Either he will DNF or if he finishes, he will not break 2:04:20. Bekele will pretty much follow the path of Ayele Abshero. He will bounce between 2:05 and 2:04. That is my take on the "great duel" tomorrow.

illegitimate wrote:Still remembering the pre-Paris thread where you said he 'might run 2:05 at best in the marathon.' I'll bump it Sunday after he solidifies GOAT status.

iirc

that was prediction for that run not career pb

i don't seem to have been far out for paris

i saw his paris run & saw enough

he's tough but no real great speed at M

course record is dennis' 2"03'45

if conditions are good & pacing hard to 1/2 way or even 30k & kennster doesn't panic when he realises he's out of his depth & desperately tries to start slowing the race at ~ 35/37.5k & as i expect, eliud sweeps past him as he can bully the runt at M, i envisage :

~ 2"03'30 - eliud

~ 2"04'15 - kennster

Idiot

He was talking about the very elite East africans

A WADA funded study has already confirmed that EPO works just fine on East africans

Agree with most of what ventolin wrote except this:

you can't just keep improving off better endurance

because Radcliffe proved that aerobic potential (obviously) must work both ways- moving up or down the distances, since she ran 30:01 after her marathon debut. That said, we must note that Radcliffe set her PR's at 10,000 aged 28, and then a year later the 2:15:25 when she was 29. Youth makes a difference in terms of speed.

Bekele ran his WR age 23. performances since then suggest he could do no better than 26:30 or so today, and maybe even as "slow" as 26:40 as ventolin claims. Note: At age 30 Geb ran a 26:29, AFTER his marathon debut. Note also that it took Geb 4 more years to put together a WR effort when he ran 2:04:26, and then a year later, age 35 his WR of 2:03:59. Bekele is now 32. Assuming they possess similar profiles, there is nothing to project significantly faster times from Bekele than Geb other than his being slightly younger than Geb for his current opportunities. So sub 2:04 yes, but sub 2:03?... One thing is certain, if KB is to run a WR, it's not going to be in Chicago, but more than likely Berlin.

stinky pinky wrote:

Le Chapeau wrote:

It's perfectly feasible to come to the conclusion that Kimetto could run that sort of 10k.

You surely need that sort of reserve speed to run a Marathon that fast.

This may be true. But we'll never know. Has anyone in modern times set the WR marathon then been in contention for the 10K WR? I just think it would be a huge task to go from marathon training to 10K training when, as far as we can tell, Kimetto is purely a marathon runner.

Even Wanjiru spent time on the track, but I believe it was before becoming a force in the marathon.

You would have to consider Carlos Lopes in the modern era and he was just four seconds outside the 10k WR when he was the Olympic Champion and WR holder.

He went directly from a win in the WCC to setting the WR shortly after.

Surely Kimetto could put up a faster 10k than the 27:17 Lopes ran?

Lopes alternated between the Marathon and either track 10k and 12km CC with ease.

I doubt Lopes would have had any trouble getting back to at least his 10km best after his WR but he retired instead.

Lopes was capable of much faster than his 2-07 with specific training

At least 2-04

Bekele's last great year was 2009.

Considering the injury and lost training, he ran well in 2012, had the good half against Mo in 2013, but still he's 5 years out from world beater.

If he wins Chicago in 2:04 or under, then we can call this a great year for him.

Problem is, for Bekele, Kipchoge likely wins on Sunday.

coach j wrote:

Lopes was capable of much faster than his 2-07 with specific training

At least 2-04

Sounds to me like "specific training" for the marathon might preclude him from 10K contention ..? Lopes was a fantastic runner though.

Little doubt Kimetto could dip below 27:00 if he stepped on a track tomorrow. It is too late for him to contend for the WR at 10K even if he switched focus. I wonder how he would have fared if he had tried for the track for a couple years then switched to marathon.

coach j wrote:

Idiot

He was talking about the very elite East africans

No shit? I thought he was talking about the East Africans who go out and jog 30:00 5Ks in Nairobi and Addis Ababa for charity. Glad you cleared that up.

coach j wrote:

A WADA funded study has already confirmed that EPO works just fine on East africans

I don't think a WADA-funded study was needed for this, but thanks for affirming exactly what I implied was clarly true, while for some reason calling me an idiot in the process -- and not addressing what I wrote about your stupid use of "confirmeed" at all. (By the way, if you're going to make claims like "Carlos Lopes could hav run 2:04," you might want to steer clear of maligning other people's intelligence.)

It seems pretty obvious that Haile Gebrselassie is the GOAT. While his Olympic and world championship titles fall short of Bekele's, he does have two consecutive world records in the marathon.

Let's look at Geb's first marathon -- 2:06:35 for 3rd in the 2002 London Marathon. Pretty good I'd say. Were people saying he's washed up back then? Dunno, but by his 7th marathon (including a DNF in London), he broke the WR in Berlin in 2007 in 2:04:26. He ran great in Dubai (2:04:53) then broke his own record in Berlin in 2008, being the first to break 2:04.

Pretty tough record to beat. However Bekele had a great start with a solo win and course record in Paris in 2:05:03. Even if he doesn't get the course record or even doesn't win in Chicago, he'll still be likely on track for a potential WR. If he gets the WR Sunday, that should definitely earn him the GOAT status.

Fastnbulbous wrote:

It seems pretty obvious that Haile Gebrselassie is the GOAT. While his Olympic and world championship titles fall short of Bekele's, he does have two consecutive world records in the marathon.

Are you a troll or did you type the wrong name? So Geb's two consecutive marathon WRs outweigh the fact that Bekele bettered everything Geb has done (aside from the marathon which has yet to be seen - in which his debut was obviously faster than Geb's).

Geb:

Olympics - 2 10k Gold

Worlds - 4 10k Gold

Indoors - 3 3k Gold

- 1 1½k GOld

African - 0 Gold

Africa - 0 Gold

XC - 0 Gold

Current World Records

- Road 10 mile

- One hour (distance covered)

- 20k track

Bekele:

Olympics - 2 10k Gold

- 1 5k Gold

Worlds - 4 10k Gold

- 1 5k Gold

Indoors - 1 3k Gold

African - 2 5k Gold

Africa - 1 5k Gold

XC - 6 Long Gold

- 5 Short Gold

Current World Records

- 5k

- 10k

- Indoor 5k

- Indoor 2k

- Indoor 2 mile

Don't get me wrong. I love Haile. But Bekele is undoubtedly THE distance GOAT.

Coach Y wrote:

(By the way, if you're going to make claims like "Carlos Lopes could hav run 2:04," you might want to steer clear of maligning other people's intelligence.)

Renato Canova and Antonio cabral have both stated he could have run much faster

Cabral says 2-04

It's not just me claiming this

I won't bother responding to the rest of your nonsense

Renato Canova and Antonio cabral have both stated he could have run much faster

Cabral says 2-04

It's not just me claiming this

Lopes himself said he could've run 2:05 on WR day if pushed. Given more specific training and running marathons in his 20s, Lopes would be right up there.

agip's reasoning on the GOAT is as bad as the Nazis. Hey, it was bound to go there eventually.

coach j wrote:

Cabral says 2-04

It's not just me claiming this

Renegader wrote:

Lopes himself said he could've run 2:05 on WR day if pushed.

What is it with you dipshits and your woulda-shoulda-couldas? Are you really as dumb as you sound or are you just being provocateurs?

This sport doesn't reward hypotheticals and "He had the talent to..." bullshit. Lopes was a great runner, an Olympic gold medalist who ran 2:07:12 on a perfect day. To say he could have run even one second faster is pointless, but to say he could have run two to three MINUTES faster is the mark of true mental deficiency. What next? Bekele could have broken 26:00 if he'd had pacers through 24 laps in his WR 10K and we know this because he and a few pro-doping European coaches said so?

ventolin^3 is making more sense than 90 percent of you ding-dongs in this thread. That's a sign that the people with active brain lesions have come out in force.

aaaaaand he's back spewing the stuff that Renato says is absolute BS...but why listen to a guy who actually works with the top athletes & knows their actual situation & fitness when in top M shape! this dude has a calculator saying they all should be running 25:50 10Ks!

ventolin^3 wrote:

people keep forgetting that you need some serious current speed to run these whopping M's of 2"03 & now into 2"02s

you can't just keep improving off better endurance

that has virtually hit the end of the road

these improvements over past few years have to involve better speed since geb's M wrs

They both have a claim for GOAT. Until Bekele makes a significant mark(WR or Gold) in the marathon, Geb is still in contention for the title of GOAT.

Coach Y wrote:

All that aside, keep in mind that Renato has said some astonishingly mindless things about runners and running on this board, probably the worst of these being his claim that East Africans don't stand to gain as much, if anything, from taking EPO as others do. That's not only stupid enough to immediately discredit him but opens the door to the likelihood that he's just as shady as various other Italian inteloper-coaches.

It's stupid to stupid people. He actually gave several times several explanations why it is really plausible. People like you with limited inteligence just call it ridiculous without offering any real counter-arguments. Either offer some detailed analysis like Canova does or shut up.