Oshier will destroy Verzbicas in the Dream Mile

Anyone know if they'll for sure show the boys mile on TV? The meet is on NBC for 2 hours, so I would hope they'd be able to show the race for 5 minutes.

I heard that the boys race was timed to be run just before TV coverage starts, and will be televised as a replay at the beginning of coverage "if something significant happens." Otherwise it won't be shown. I haven't seen any info on Internet streaming.

I personally think LV will be gunning not just to break 4 - too ordinary a goal for him. He will want the high school record, just as he wanted the 2 mile record. He may go down in flames but I think he will try for 58 sec laps.

I stand corrected by the guy who brought up some runners of the past who failed to break 4:00, but I still say it's much more likely for an 8:29 2miler to be a sub 4 miler than not. The rule is that in order to break 4:00, you need 1:52 800m speed at the slowest, not 1:49, which I don't think LV is capable of (probably 1:51).

As for someone like the HS Webb, it seems like his 3:53 was a PERFECT race in every regard. He probably could have put down some blazing times at other distances had he had a day like he did at Pre. Remember, he ran 8:45 for 2 miles indoor around the same time of his 3:53; I'm confident he could have run at least 8:35 outdoors had he made it his focus and gotten in a fast race. He split 47.x in a 4x400m as well.

Back to LV, like I say, 8:29 converts to around 7:50 for 3k. Most guys under 8:00 are also 4:00 or faster milers. And I would argue those who aren't could be if they made the mile their focus. I know I might be adding a lot of qualifiers, but really, there've been a lot of guys in the 8:40-9:00 range run inside 4:03. I still say 3:59 is damn near a given if LV has even a decent day, but we will see I guess. 8:29 for a HS guy is utterly ridiculous. Whether he breaks 4:00 or not he'll always be one of the most impressive american HS in history.

Bull Dyke wrote:

I have a feeling they'll all sit back and make it a kicking race. No body breaks four unless they band together and break the foe four minute barrier. The dark horse is the Navajo Indian Billy Orman to settle the white mans score. Or rather do some scalpin'. I can see the headlines now "Verzbicas and Oshier brutally scalped by Arizona Injun!" , "Orman Honest Injun, on the warpath!" , "Puppies quiver and shiver over big dog!"

Billy is not native he is half white and his mom is Puerto Rican. He has grown up on the rez because his dad is a local doctor there.

Everyone does realize that 8:29 is equivalent to ~7:50, which, in many years, would be the fastest 3000 in the year in the effing NCAA, right? Meaning Lukas could probably come close to winning the 3000 indoors or 5000 outdoors in the NCAA RIGHT NOW. Ridiculous.

Having said that, I wouldn't be surprised if he goes out too hard and dies, losing to someone like Ossier.

Dudes, it's not 7:50 equivalent. It's like 7:53 at best, probably 7:54.

fast wrote:

final field for dream mile:

http://www.milesplit.com/articles/69139

from the press release: "[...] the boys’ mile features the top-ranked U.S. athletes in the 800, 1500 and 1600 meters, the mile, the 3200 meters, the 2-mile and the 5K."

holy crap, that's awesome.

swedishbasteve wrote: Also 4:12/4:17 8:29 Is ridiculous!.

I don't think those were the splits. The leader hit in around 4:11 or so, and LV was at the very back.

Just from seeing the clock at the start/finish line, Verbikas crossed in about 4:15/16, so it was quite an even pace up to the last two or three laps.

(10) LV wants another notch on his belt, wants to go out in style, wants to be in that elite field of "high school sub-4 runners."

(9) Consequently, he won't stand for a tactical pace/race. He's willing and gutsy enough to take it out in 58-59 if no one else will.

(8) Oshier, I suspect, knows it's not in his own best interests to lead. I'm sure he's itching to run sub-4 and give LV a run for his money, but you can be sure he knows that LV is both shooting for AND capable of running sub-4, so he'll draft for as long as he can, hoping that LV fades or that he himself can muster a kick.

(7) Oshier's 4:02.5 mile (converted) is still a LONG way from sub-4. Once you get down to that level, those last few seconds are a bitch. And that, folks, is why only 4 high schoolers have ever broken 4:00. I say he comes up just short . . . like so many other very, very talented runners before him. (Though I'd LOVE to see him dip under.)

(6) Is Austin Mudd in this? If so, he's no less or more of a threat than Oshier. (Ditto for Orman.) With Mudd's 4:04.x mile (converted), he's still a long way from sub-4. It's one thing to run a 26-27 last 200 off what was essentially 4:09-ish mile pace until the last 200m, and it's another thing to do it off of 4:01-ish pace.

(5) LV's credentials are nearly impeccable. 2-time Nat'l Footlocker champ, double XC champ this year, triple winner at indoor Nats, Dream mile winner last year in 4:04, 4:03 mile indoors this year, 8:29 2-mile Nat. record. LV knows delivers under pressure, and it would be unwise to bet against him.

(4) LV is WAY ahead of where he was last year at this time or indoors. There's no reason to think he won't crack 4:00 unless he comes down with a bad cold or injury.

(3) His biggest threat is himself, not the other competitors. His loss in the 2-mile at last year's outdoor Nats was simply because he overshot. He got greedy for the 2-mile record and paid dearly, losing a huge lead. So if he guns for 3:55-ish, it could come back to bite him in the ass, in which case the likes of Oshier, Mudd and Chesereck will be there to Hoover him up.

(2) I'm hoping like hell that Cheserek or someone else will lead out in a fast 400 in 57-58, maybe even the first 800 in 1:58-59. That would be a gift to LV.

(1) Mr. Verzbicas for the win.

* An earlier poster said he thought LV would gun for the H.S. record! Are you kidding?! LV doesn't have a ice cube's chance in hell of beating 3:53 . . . and he knows it.

Well I hope Billy Orman grits down and goes for a win.

Hey Billy watch the 1983 Helsinki 10,000m World Championship race, come from behind like Alberto Cova, or even a Billy Mills.

You can do it!

Reported splits for LV's 2-mile record were:

"62.3, 62.9, 63.1, 63.9, 63.6, 65.1, 65.2, 60.7, and 2.4 secs for the few yards from 3200m to 2 mile ..."

Spreading out the extra 2.4 sec evenly for each lap (close enough to be within 0.1 for split estimates, even though slower earlier on) this would work out to 1/2 mile splits of:

1st mile - 2:05.8, 2:07.6 (4:13.4)

2nd mile - 2:09.3, 2:06.5 (4:15.8)

Watching the video made it look like the first mile was closer to 4:15/6 if you timed him crossing the finish line location, which is not the split point.

history wrote:

Virgin ran 8:22. Never broke 4 (and he tried). No chance he could run 1:49.

Salazar ran 8:24 (indoor). Never broke 4 (and he tried). No chance he could run 1:49.

Shorter ran 8:26 (indoor). Never broke 4. No chance he could run 1:49.

Just a few notable names among many examples. And these guys were well under 8:29.

Doesn't mean LV can't do sub-4. But it's not ordained. And 1:49 is very hard for distance guys, which LV is.

I agree with the examples you listed to a certain extent; however, those guys were in college when they ran those times and benefited from extra aerobic strength gained in college. I think if you can run 8:29 in HS, you are probably capable of a sub 4 or 4:01 in HS. Look at German and like Webb at what 8:45 indoors? I forget. I think a HS kid capable of running 8:29 in HS can probably run at least 1:49 in the half. Generally, a sub 4 guy has to be at least a 1:50 half guy. That's all I'm saying. I may be wrong. But, LV held off Geydon at NIN and Geydon is about the same as Oshier pure speed wise. I may be proven wrong but I don't think so. Now, if you want to take it further, look at Ryun, Danielson, Liqouri,and Webb in HS. I think in HS, without looking up all their PRs, could probably run around 1:50 in the half and at least 50 in the 400. Mind you I'm just speculating, but I think LV does have speed.

Oshier's converted time is more around 4:02.2, and this could be shaved off just taking a half a second off each lap of his and mustering a more impressive kick than at CIF, and this seems reasonable within the scope of beneficial factors such as a bigger venue and not having to lead the whole race. Also JO wasn't going for a super-spectacular time at CIF finals so now he knows it matter and he will get it.

I know Gedyon has run some fast long sprints and mid distance times but I haven't noticed any ridiculous kicks out if him, kicks that left someone choking on his dust.

As a caveat, I said they were in college when they ran those times, again, I was speculating it may have been after college for those guys but I hope you see my point. I think LV is already at the point when we thought Rupp couldn't do all that in NCAAs. I think his aerobic strength at this point allows him to go really fast. The scary thing is he's a triathlete and hasn't even really focused yet. When he does totally focus on piling on miles and speed work without the swim and the bike, as long as he is healthy, I think everyone is in trouble in US distance. He could potentially surpass Rupp's stuff by a lot. However, its all speculation, we will see.

My official prediction:

LV: 3:57ish

Cheserek: 4:00 and change

Oshier: 4:01.

I will stick to that until the race.

Everyone seems to be forgetting the key fact that in a tactical race, Verzbicas still has a damn good kick in him.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Zjx7UVkzHk&feature=related

This was 70 minutes after his 8:40.70 2 mile at Indoor Nationals. According to the announcer, Verzbicas closed the last 200 in a 27. The announcer also indicated that at the 1200 mark, Verzbicas came through at a 3:13.

Taking this into consideration, Verzbicas' last 400 had splits of 30 and 27, which was good enough to take out a fresh Gedyon, despite having broken the National HS Record in the 5000m 2 days prior, and coming within .70 seconds of breaking Lindgren's 2 mile record barely over an hour earlier

Also to address several more things...

1- Lukas' supposed inability to run well without personal pacers or pros.

Please recall that during the indoor season, Lukas had a personal pacer along with Bernard Lagat to try and break the High School Indoor Record, and ended up with an 8:43.

However, at NBIN, Lukas led almost the entire 2-mile and managed a time 3 seconds better with 8:40.70.

There is no reason to believe that the only reason Lukas pulled his 8:29 was because of a pro field and a personal pacer, because as his indoor accomplishments show, he can run BETTER leading the whole damn race than he can following.

2- Mudd's supposed "24-second kick"

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Zjx7UVkzHk&feature=related

The race starts at approximately 6 seconds.

Mudd crosses the 1200m mark at 3:12.

This would mean that the first 1200m was run in about a 3:06. Considering Mudd's time overall was a 4:03, his last 400 had to have been around a 57. If he ran a 24 second 200, then the 200 directly preceding that would have been a 33, which Mudd most certainly will NOT be able to do should he be running with Verzbicas in the Dream Mile. Especially not with the rabbits leading off, and Verzbicas bearing down on a sub-4 mile.

In retrospect though, I really doubt that Mudd pulled a 24 second 200. The idea in itself is ridiculous, although I can't clearly tell from the video

"Especially not with the rabbits leading off, and Verzbicas bearing down on a sub-4 mile."

With that logic and a race as big as this there should be no reason why four of these milers getting caught in LV's vortex. I wonder who's going to play the sacrificial hare?