Over or under 13:15 for Fernandez

sesson cat frogman wrote:

I am not going to fall for the Fernandez hype, because so many other young promising US distance runners simply don't make it to the next level.

how many have broken records at every level? WORLD Junior records?

NCAA records?

Stanford May 2nd

NCAA champs

USA champs if he enters

World Champs

Remember, no American 1500 meter runner has won a gold medal in over a 100 years. As luck has it Ferandez will get injured or go into a mysterious Webb-like slump. In the last 50 years only Ryan and Scott have provided any hope. For a short time Spivey and Maree were also up there. Even when Lagat puts on the US uniform something crazy happens and he doesn't make the Olympic finals. It is like the old Red Sox curse. I call it the US mile curse, and it is now past the century mark.

If Fernandez breaks a 3:50 I would consider that a triumph. That is all you can really ask for.

Webbs high school mile record and 3:46 mile may not even get him a medal.

However, a runner like Spivey with more modest times did get a medal. He also made 6 Olympic and WC finals.

Lets face reality US track fans. Fernandez is a great NCAA runner, but has yet to prove he can race against the world's best.

In short it is impossible to predict his future success.

UNDER FOR FERNADEZ.....

because...

Smith graduated from Michigan State in 1993 with a degree in fisheries and wildlife, and continued his education at the University of Washington, where he earned a Ph.D. in pharmacology in 2000.

His coach has a PHD in PHARMACOLOGY. ( from OSU BIO)

I say the sky is the limit for German, why not a 12:55 why hes at it?

why not a 12:45?

why cant we compete with the world?? well we sure can!!!! GO PHARMACOLOGY

and GO GERMAN! BEAT THOSE ETHOPIANS!!! WHOO HOO!!!!

Under. 13:10 or better!

A GOOD READ.

Dave Smith OSU HEAD COACH. PHD in Pharmacology.

He is taking a trip to China on route to Workd XC, Dave is stocking up on Germans Vitamins, so he can chase Rupp outdoors.

german do not forget to take your vitamins there at osu! we need a champion!!!!

conto, Webb ran a few track 5k's before his 13:10, but they were early season--maybe both were at Penn Relays (13:46/13:30??)--and the 13:10 was his first and still only in-shape, all out track 5k. I agree that he's our most talented distance runner, given the 1:43.8-27:34 range. But German is a special talent and we really haven't seen the limits of it yet, because he was not pushed in his senior track season, he ran a conservative xc nationals race, before the injury, he was sick in the 7:47 race, he won junior xc nats this year easily, and he won the 3:55 race by 8-10 seconds. I would have liked to see him at world's. The 5k is probably his best distance now and there will be multiple opportunities for fast 5k's between Stanford and Eugene. Does Pre include a 5k or only a 2M this year? I don't know if his coach plans to have him go to Europe this year, but I would assume he is going to compete at the U.S. trials and if he makes the team, he would surely go to Europe for some fast races prior to World's.

German is being removed from the XC team as we speak. There seems to be a problem with some test results. Word is he recieved a fax from the doc this morning. German has been chasing after the ladies a little too much and is paying the price of a nasty STD. More to come from the OSU homepage.

Looks like no world XC for the poor guy this year. Good to hear he had a refreashing spring break though. Get well soon German.

It would be a huge accompishment if German ran under 13:15. Even so, IT DOESN'T MATTER.

World Junior Record

12:52.61 Eliud Kipchoge (age 18) BTW, he still hasn't won Olympic Gold

As German runs in the World Cross this week, remember that some guy named Bekele doubled in the senior races at age 19.

If you still think German is the savior, go back and watch Lagat close his first ever 5k in 51 to go sub 13.

P.S. Dave Smith quote "Beyond OSU, when his career is further down, he's going to be a great 10k."

World Junior 10K Record

26:41.75 Sammy Wanjiru

Catch Me If You Can wrote:

13:03!

young gunna wrote:

I think the question should be over or under 13:00!

the rocket wrote:

I believe German will give 13 a scare this year.

Not so much...

2009 USA Track & Field Championships - 6/25/2009 to 6/28/2009

Hayward Field - Eugene, Oregon

Event 11 Men 5000 Meter Run

================================================================

World: W 12:37.35 5/31/2004 Kenenisa Bekele, ETH

American: A 12:58.21 8/14/1996 Bob Kennedy, Nike

Hayward: S 13:07.83 1998 Luke Kipkosgei, Kenya

Name Year Team Finals

================================================================

Finals

1 Matt Tegenkamp Oregon TC Elite 13:20.57

2 Chris Solinsky Oregon TC Elite 13:20.82

3 Evan Jager Oregon TC Elite 13:22.18

4 Bolota Asmerom Nike 13:24.00

5 German Fernandez Oklahoma State 13:25.46

German he run like metronome.

13:25 for an 18 year old is bloody brilliant! STOP THE HATE

speedy da turtle wrote:

13:25 for an 18 year old is bloody brilliant! STOP THE HATE

Exactly. Especially for a "verified" 18 year old, not some 23 yr old 'teenager' like Kipchoge a few years back.

All that aside, Africans - on average - tend to mature earlier, at a younger age, than other racial or ethnic groups, so I tend not to put too much stock in who's running what at 18. German has sub 13 potential. So does Rupp for that matter. Look at Rupp's development. There are guys 18 - 19 who are more physically mature and developed. People should be supporting our guys instead of always finding something negative to chew on. Shit. 13:25 - after all his collegiate races. Fantastic. Rupp - fantastic season. I'll be very surprised if all the racing doesn't end up having Rupp very fatigued in Berlin.

German had an awesome year for an 18 year old. A 3:55 mile - indoors. NCAA champ at 1500. USA Jr record at 5k. Anyone who can find fault with him (or with Rupp) is a jealous ass.

speedy da turtle wrote:

13:25 for an 18 year old is bloody brilliant! STOP THE HATE

I agree! However, I'm afraid that you are a bit too slow, "speedy."

If you had actually bothered to read the earlier posts within this thread, you will see that I do admire German a great deal. On the other hand, I had a difficult time convincing the naive Fernandez worshippers that they were getting far too carried away with their HUGE predictions. This is simply a reminder that I was right.

page 2 of this thread I said somewhat reservedly that he would run close to 13:22 and that, Er...'s comment that German would run in the 13:20s was a reasonable post. So many people on this board cannot seem to grasp how difficult it is to go from 13:40s to under 13:15.

Take your best 5k time. Was it under ideal conditions? Most likely not. Not go out and drop 30 seconds from it! No problem huh? It's even harder at the mid 13 level.

Thanks for playing.

Hindsight is 20/20. It sure is amusing reading the earlier posts in this thread.

You should remember that at the time, he had run 7:47 ill and 3:55 solo and had just started track workouts. In the meantime, he got injured doubling at Big 12 indoors and missed some training. Then in outdoors, he focused on the 1500m, so he was not training for the 5. Finally, he's not going to Europe for a faster race. So, the sub-13:20 predictions, one of which was mine, weren't bad. The low 13 predictions were out of hand, though.