Webb's Semi !!!!

I haven't studied this closely, but I bet if you went back and looked at the results of semis in World Championship and Olympic 1500's, you would find that the eventual winner almost always finished in the top two of his semi. I think there is something important about going out in the semi and setting the tone for the final, showing the rest of the field (and yourself) that you are the person to beat and that you are in control. Sprinting like mad in the last 20 meters to get one of the final qualifying spots doesn't do that. As for the idea that Webb was "saving himself" for the final, I just don't buy it. I highly doubt that he expended significantly less energy in that race than the guys in front of him. The way these guys train, they are all going to be well recovered come Wednesday night. What Webb needed in that semi was some confidence going into the final. Unfortunately, I don't think he achieved that. But, hey, he's got two days to get his s*** together for the final.

I read an article a few months ago about that very topic.

Gold medal winner either won or came in 2nd in their semi most of the time, I forget the percentage. Of course there were exceptions, but it makes sense.

Can Webb medal? Sure, he's got a good shot. But if you had to put money on it now, would you rather place money on Lagat or Webb?

Three races in five days, who will have the freshest legs in the finals?

THE WAY WEBB RAN IN HIS SEMI SHOWS HOW CONFIDENT HE IS

He didn't sprint like mad in the last 20 meters- he did it over the last 300! I looked at the video and estimated his splits, at 3:03, 3:28.5, 3:41 And because he ended up behind everyone after the first 100, he had no choice really but to conserve his energy and wait for the right time to go. It turned out 300 was perfect because then he only had to cover extra distance in the final turn from lane 2 - a whole 4 meters to be exact, and he had the wheels to run down the 7 guys he had to because he wasn't wasting energy worrying about passing anyone or avoiding a box for 1100 meters (and 6 turns) of the race.

Not sure he's got his 'cycle' right this year.

It really kinda shows.

Webb is smarter than you think. He's securely in the final and he removed the bulls-eye from his back with his showing in the semis.

from that picture it looks like one guy is shoeless and the kenyan is running inside lane one

form watcher wrote:

http://osaka2007.iaaf.org/photo/gallery.html#40803

Unfortunately Alan is not looking too good in the semi. Check out the poor form as he fights to make the final - his leg is twisted.

I'll be rooting like hell for him and Bernard regardless.

Beldar wrote:

Webb is smarter than you think. He's securely in the final and he removed the bulls-eye from his back with his showing in the semis.

People, don't you get it? Webb struggled, he did not look smooth at all. The contrast with Lagat is amazing. Lagat looked comfortable and smooth; Webb looked nervous and rough. Alan is in trouble and unless he just had a bad day, it is doubtful if he can medal (I am not a Webb basher) I am rooting for a 1-3 U.S. finish (I think that is the very best that we can hope for at this point)

definately needs to get more physically involved in the final especially if its slow - if he's not in the right position at the bell he's toast (see Ovett 83 World Champs, Coe 1986 Euro Champs both won outside 3:40). Positioning is everything and he needs to make his presence felt. If he's on the shoulder of the leader with 300m left he wins, but if he's 5 yards off the pace and needing to pass 3 or 4 other runners bronze at best.

I don't think he looked like crap. He's an idiot for not going out harder to put himself in a position to win, and I think now he understands that, but he finished as well as anyone from where he was.

He just needs to put himself in a better position to get ready for everyone to start kicking.

i think he did a great job of saving himself for the finals. it was probably alot closer than he wanted but i would be suprised if he didn't come out with a medal

i think webb's race today may benefit him for the final. he won't make the mistake of sitting in the back. he'll be up near the front where he can control the pace and make a long, hard push from 500 or more meters out. he has to run the race like the strongest 1500 meter runner in the world. he showed himself he can't win a kicker's race. he also survived a bad race and advanced. i think that showed a certain level of maturity in itself. he'll be ready to rock in the final.

Baddeley's got as much chance as Webb. Lagat is the USA's only hope of a medal.

George Costanza wrote:

http://www.letsrun.com/forum/flat_read.php?thread=988902

Anyone remember these?

That's hilarious! What are those quotes from? I mean I know Webb didn't really say any of that, but who made them up? If it's the posters on that thread I'm impressed because some of those are really funny

I timed Lagat's last 200 in 25.6 and Webb's in 25.2.

Webb finished well, but his awful positioning going into the last 200 negated much of it.

He needs to be towards the front with 200 to go.

World Champs Men's 1500 Meter Final Results (semi-final placing in parentheses):

2005

1. Ramzi (1)

2. Kaouch (1)

3. Silva (4)

2003

1. El G (1)

2. Baala (1)

3. Heshko (3)

2001

1. El G (1)

2. Lagat (1)

3. Maazouzi (5)

1999

1. El G (1)

2. Ngeny (1)

3. Estevez (3)

1997

1. El G (1)

2. Cacho (3)

3. Estevez (2) (Morceli won his semi, got 4th in final)

1995

1. Morceli (1)

2. El G (1)

3. Niyongaboz (2)

1993

1. Morceli (1)

2. Cacho (1)

3. Bile (2)

1991

1. Morceli (1)

2. Kirochi (2)

3. Fuhlbrugge (7)

1987

1. Bile (1)

2. Gonzalez (2)

3. Spivey (2)

1983

1. Cram (1)

2. Scott (1)

3. Aouita (2)

So semifinal winners have won gold 10 out of 10 times, silver 7 of 10 times, and bronze 0 of 10 times.

Webb should do whatever it takes to stay within a step of the leader at all times, absorb and cover all the hard moves he knows are coming, then lay all his cards on the table in the last 120.

Go AW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Comparison of tactics (or how it looked) between Webb, Ramzi and Lagat:

Agree with the poster who said throughout the race, Lagat was putting himself in a good position, and that he responded quickly when the pace changed. At the bell, he was near the back, but he didn't kick early. He waited until 300m to go before starting to slide up the inside, but didn't really gun for home until inside the last 200m. He seemed to catch a break when it opened up around him as the bend starts, and he took advantage of it by moving to the outside to get around the people in front of him. Even though he ended up wide, he didn't really pass everyone on the curve, but rather coming off of it into the home straight. Saving energy, perfect timing, strong finish.

Second Semi:

Webb at times was lagging. Ramzi was at the back of the pack for most of the race, but Alan was in a different position, off the back at times. Contrast their positions at the bell - Ramzi was already forging his way through the pack, Webb was 2-3m off the back as they pass the line. On the curve Ramzi is finding/making space for himself on the outside of the pack as the pace picks up, setting himself up for the moves that are coming on the back straight. He's near the front at this stage, and catches the leader at the start of the curve, passes him before the home straight and holds on. Webb didn't start to move until the back straight. Had Webb been in the position of Kevin Sullivan with 300m to go, or on the back straight itself (Sullivan was in 6th and able to get to the outside with 250m to go) he would have qualified far more easily (Webb was still last, pulling even with the Japanese runner.) It was only about 10m between Webb and Sullivan, but Webb didn't end up passing Sully until the bend, so it is an important 10m. If Webb had moved earlier, we might have seen a Webb/Ramzi duet down the home stretch, and some more chirping from Letsrunnner about gamesmanship.

One more note: Ramzi made his move from the back of the pack to the middle about 50m before the bell, and he pushes the Japanese runner out of the way to get by (Ramzi's running just behind him, and pushes between him and the runner in red on the inside.) It's a pretty big shove, pushes the Japanese runner into the Italian, and Ramzi is through. Sully himself talked about some rough tactics, and that was rough, and low. Makes it too easy to see Ramzi as a villan.

So Morceli and El G comprise 7/10 of these Champions.

They were a level above their competition.

Cram was a world record holder and Bile was on top of the World in 1987.

Although Lagat and Ramzi suddenly look great there was no clear favorite going into this year's WC's.

I think Webb finished 5th in his Semi to fire up the Letsrun message board. He saw that the ease of his first round didn't produce enough posts on Letsrun so he hung back in the semi's and charged into the last spot to get extra attention.

Webb. Webb. Webb. ($Nike, $Nike, $Nike)

By no means was Webb's race a thing of beauty. Even if it's an intangible aspect, there were parts of it that were down right ugly. But the thing is, if we're talking about that here on letsrun, you better believe that Webb and his coach are talking about it too, and I expect very different tactics for the final.