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ghost of Hasay wrote:
Truth hurts wrote:
Love watching the down votes coming in from the Addy fan club ie family and friends of Dathan. Everyone else knows it’s the truth. 😂😂
Ritz has exactly same chance to win as in 2023. Seeded 5-10 running on a sloppy course.
The 2020 race with Young/Touhy was also on a sloppy course. Both winners led wire to wire to get the best footing. Of course Tuohy famously almost was caught by chase pack...but wasn't.
Although there is no favorite, the group of Lowen, Dudek, Bartlett and Wilson are sure to take this out fast and try to break each other. None of this group has any interest in tactics.
Chase pack will be Alder, Gullickson and Ritz.
I'll go with Lilly Alder for the win, not leading til last 400m.
Gianna Rahmer anyone? She gets nary a mention…
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joedlrt wrote:
Raign wrote:
NXN this year is looking to be soggy and possibly rainy. Is this going to negatively impact California runners?
Everyone will be equally disadvantaged.
If everyone were "equally disadvantaged" then no one would have a disadvantage, and that's clearly not the case in a muddy NXN race. Some people handle the mud better than others.
Most Californians haven't done well in muddy NXNs. But Jaelyn Williams did well at NXN her sophomore year and she should do well again this year.
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yay marxism wrote:
Fan Out West . . . . wrote:
Further observation: on a 1-10 scale, Woodward Park is a 6 while Bowdoin Park is a 9.
(Note: 1 = Woodbridge, essentially a track meet on grass; 10 = Crystal Springs, essentially a mountain trail race.)
Woodward has one short, steep hill ("Killer Hill" but not really for fit athletes) just before 2 miles, then a much shorter hill at the 2-mile mark. Bowdoin has the one hill/mountain to climb thru the first 2.5k then down the mountain to the finish.
How much faster would you say Woodward is compared to Bowdoin in average conditions(for their location)?
Bowdoin is around 45 seconds slower than Woodward.
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The Big Three wrote:
joedlrt wrote:
Everyone will be equally disadvantaged.
If everyone were "equally disadvantaged" then no one would have a disadvantage, and that's clearly not the case in a muddy NXN race. Some people handle the mud better than others.
Most Californians haven't done well in muddy NXNs. But Jaelyn Williams did well at NXN her sophomore year and she should do well again this year.
Correct. 7th at NXN 2023
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None of them will be on the podium as individuals.....or a team
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Addy Ritz, is toast!! She only gets exposure because of her jerk of a father
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And you are a fool wrote:
ghost of Hasay wrote:
Ritz has exactly same chance to win as in 2023. Seeded 5-10 running on a sloppy course.
The 2020 race with Young/Touhy was also on a sloppy course. Both winners led wire to wire to get the best footing. Of course Tuohy famously almost was caught by chase pack...but wasn't.
Although there is no favorite, the group of Lowen, Dudek, Bartlett and Wilson are sure to take this out fast and try to break each other. None of this group has any interest in tactics.
Chase pack will be Alder, Gullickson and Ritz.
I'll go with Lilly Alder for the win, not leading til last 400m.
Absolutely WRONG. Addy has NO chance to win. Lowen, Dudek and Bartlett leap years above her
Just a reminder of where SW girls finished since COVID:
2024 - individual champ. Teams went 1, 2, 4, and 7
2023 - individual champ. Teams went 1, 2, 3 and 4.
2022 - individuals 2nd and 3rd. Teams went 2, 4, 7Hedengren graduated. They all have a chance now.
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The Big Three wrote:
yay marxism wrote:
How much faster would you say Woodward is compared to Bowdoin in average conditions(for their location)?
Bowdoin is around 45 seconds slower than Woodward.
Girls Records: 16:20/WP . . . 16:45/BP
Boys Records: 14:16/WP . . . 15:15/BP
BP Girls is an all-time Tuohy record while WP Boys is an improvement on an all-time Fernandez record. You could consider those two records as being extreme outliers.
Maybe 45 seconds is correct. Maybe something close to 30 secs is correct.
If what you're getting at is, could Bartlett have run 16:20 on WP like Wilson just did, you're probably correct. Likewise, suggesting Wilson could have run 17-flat on BP like Bartlett just did.
Again, no way to clearly separate those two as well as Dudek & Williams.
Not even considering which one will handle Glendoveer's slop the best.
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I couldn't agree more. So far, she has been criminally underrated in this thread. The only race so far this year where she was challenged was the MSU Spartan Invitational against Emma Hoffman. (A relatively slow and hilly golf course run too) She let Emma lead all the way up to 4k where she was ahead by 3 seconds, then she closed in 3:13 to win by 8 seconds.
And I might be wrong, but did she take the only girls NXR course record in 2025???
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That's Dudek, sorry for not saying
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For those who have not been to NXN during wet conditions, it is in no way similar to a typical muddy course. It is a quivering, gelatinous surface that isn't mud in the traditional sense. These conditions turn everything upside down and favorites are no longer favorites. Not sure if conditions will be that bad this year, but it begs the question of why this course is used year in and year out despite there being many better Portland area options with better drainage and soil.
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I mean cross country is meant to not only pit competitors against other racers, but the elements as well. Time trialing is for track
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Airport lounge wrote:
For those who have not been to NXN during wet conditions, it is in no way similar to a typical muddy course.
It is a quivering, gelatinous surface that isn't mud in the traditional sense.
Is it just the mud on that particular golf course that is "quivering and gelatinous"? Or is that type of mud common in many parts of Portland?
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fausten27 wrote:
I couldn't agree more. So far, she has been criminally underrated in this thread. The only race so far this year where she was challenged was the MSU Spartan Invitational against Emma Hoffman. (A relatively slow and hilly golf course run too) She let Emma lead all the way up to 4k where she was ahead by 3 seconds, then she closed in 3:13 to win by 8 seconds.
And I might be wrong, but did she take the only girls NXR course record in 2025???
Wilson's CR on Woodward Park at the CA State Meet doubles as the NXR CA course record.
I would say Natasza Dudek as received her fair share of recognition on this thread. Just recency bias that the others have received the most recent attention due to their NXRs being more recent that Dudek's.
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Muddy swamp wrote:
Airport lounge wrote:
For those who have not been to NXN during wet conditions, it is in no way similar to a typical muddy course.
It is a quivering, gelatinous surface that isn't mud in the traditional sense.
Is it just the mud on that particular golf course that is "quivering and gelatinous"? Or is that type of mud common in many parts of Portland?
It is very atypical due to its specific, non-draining, clay/silt soil conditions. Not like anything else people ever run on in Portland or elsewhere. It is uniquely terrible course for drainage.
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Just saw a nice interview with Wilson and Alder on NxN website. Alder gave an answer of things to come. I believe the question was are you willing to say you'll be the best Alder runner. Alder's response to that question was no. My younger sister has run sub 5 and she's only 12. I saw that race. Two more years and she'll be in high school with Jane's sister.
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The Big Three wrote:
The California state course is much more than 15 feet downhill for the first mile. It's a least 30 feet downhill, maybe even 40 feet, which means that the last mile is 30 - 40 feet uphill.
And the last mile is not a full mile. It's at least 20 meters short of a full mile because the finish line doesn't go all the way back to the start line.
In any case, a 1580 meter last "mile" that is 30 - 40 feet uphill that is run in sub 5 is still very impressive.
I think that Williams and Wilson would have run pretty much the same time if Williams had gone out a little more aggressively. That would have given Williams the same 160 speed rating as Wilson. That's really good but it's still quite a bit behind the 165/166 speed ratings of Lowen, Bartlett, and Dudek.
How can the last mile not be a full mile? Are you saying the course isn't the advertised distance or are you saying something else?
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