It's not a very safe and easy bet. The vast majority of Lets Runners think it's a foregone conclusion Jane will win. There's literally a thread with people predicting her margin of victory will be 30 seconds or more. In this thread, people are saying she ran easy today.
Will YOU come back to this thread to apologize to me if she loses?
I won’t apologize to you, because you are being ridiculous, but I will bump this thread under my same handle regardless of the result.
This girl has been running crazy 6ks every time she steps on a course this season. This was a slower one for her. I think that you are overreacting.
My brother, you need to factor in the differences in courses and elevations. The courses she ran on before are at low elevation and known to be fast courses. Running 19:06 at the high elevation in Utah is MOVIN.
You think I'm being ridiculous now, but in a week's time you will come to the realization that I was being rational.
Because there are a myriad of variables involved in an individual's race and they are 2 different people.
You also are arbitrarily determining the goal. Or rather conflating a world prelim goal to the regional cross meet which as has been pointed is SEVERAL days before the final. Hence the GOAL is to do what is necessary to race your best at the national meet which involves a good effort around now. You don't know her training, you don't know her and Dilgeet's goals for today and just use irrelevant data points to pretend you have a modicum of reasoning. But you can change your handle and troll multiple threads and I'm sure will find other lame troll attempts as she rewrites NCAA records for her career.
Don't say I didn't warn you.
same team + same coach + same training = relevance
The purpose of running regionals isn't to run your best. The goal is to advance. I didn't make that up. Regionals are literally used to qualify for nattys.
Don't expect any sympathy from me when you're crying next weekend.
You mean the coach who after this race said Jane hasn't had a chance to show what her training is indicating for her fitness yet because of lack of competition. But I'm sure you didn't have time to watch the video with all your trolling and bloviating. Don't say I didn't warn you.
I was at the race. Hedengren looked smooth and nearly effortless in her form the entire race. The course was three 2K loops so plenty of opportunities to see all the runners up close and throughout the race. On the last straight away Kosgei looked gassed. No way Kosgei was “taking it easy.” I’m sure Hedengren ran as hard as Diljeet Taylor coached her to run. “Par for the course” so far for Hedengren in her three cross country meets this season was crushing the field by 30-50 seconds and setting course records each time.
Some of you obsess over Diljeet. Hedengren is the one running the race, not Diljeet and how Jane feels during the race play a factor in how she runs it.
Honestly I'm pulling for Hedengren(she will end up running only 4 races this season) but there's a new level of Kenyan runners and I would not be surprised that we will not see an American student athlete win a D1 x-country championship for the next few years....men or women.
same team + same coach + same training = relevance
The purpose of running regionals isn't to run your best. The goal is to advance. I didn't make that up. Regionals are literally used to qualify for nattys.
Don't expect any sympathy from me when you're crying next weekend.
You mean the coach who after this race said Jane hasn't had a chance to show what her training is indicating for her fitness yet because of lack of competition. But I'm sure you didn't have time to watch the video with all your trolling and bloviating. Don't say I didn't warn you.
The coach cannot be trusted for an objective analysis. Of course the coach is gonna hype up her athlete and try to portray her as invincible. Please put on your thinking cap and try to look at this rationally.
You mean the coach who after this race said Jane hasn't had a chance to show what her training is indicating for her fitness yet because of lack of competition. But I'm sure you didn't have time to watch the video with all your trolling and bloviating. Don't say I didn't warn you.
The coach cannot be trusted for an objective analysis. Of course the coach is gonna hype up her athlete and try to portray her as invincible. Please put on your thinking cap and try to look at this rationally.
I cant trust you for objective analysis either, you're a random poster on a message board. I can trust that Dilgeet has far more evidence than you. I can also trust that I have a lot of experience with my own analysis and zero experience with your analysis so there is zero rational value in trusting your analysis. I also see your argumentative nature and and clear trolling traits and logical fallacies and disregard for any point that clearly invalidates your proposition so I'm quite comfortable in the level of rationality in my current reasoning. Don't say I didn't warn you
The coach cannot be trusted for an objective analysis. Of course the coach is gonna hype up her athlete and try to portray her as invincible. Please put on your thinking cap and try to look at this rationally.
I cant trust you for objective analysis either, you're a random poster on a message board. I can trust that Dilgeet has far more evidence than you. I can also trust that I have a lot of experience with my own analysis and zero experience with your analysis so there is zero rational value in trusting your analysis. I also see your argumentative nature and and clear trolling traits and logical fallacies and disregard for any point that clearly invalidates your proposition so I'm quite comfortable in the level of rationality in my current reasoning. Don't say I didn't warn you
Bro, you've shown yourself to have a bottomless pit of illogical and ill informed takes. You didn't understand that the point of Regionals is to qualify for Nattys, you compared Jane's time in Utah to her other races without taking into account the effect of running at high elevation, you failed to comprehend the relevance of her teammate's performance, you accused me of moving the goal posts when I didn't, and you displayed confirmation bias and appeal to a subjective authority by quoting her coach.
Your problem is you are letting your emotions cloud your judgment. You are obviously a fan of Jane's (you even follow her father on social), and you are not willing to consider that she could have possibly made a mistake despite all the facts and logic I have presented to you. You think she can do no wrong but you will soon find out she did.
If you're this emotional now, you're really going to be a mess next weekend. Don't expect any sympathy from me.
She looked very smooth bringing it in, I'm not concerned. Kosgei was laboring much harder and her race strategy was indicative of a more significant effort.
Funnily enough, I remember telling people that Diljeet was practicing load management when she didn't run in the first few meets of the season, and people did not believe me.
The load management is coming now into full form now. She's run 18k this entire season. There's plenty left in the tank and she's in great form.
Bro, you've shown yourself to have a bottomless pit of illogical and ill informed takes. You didn't understand that the point of Regionals is to qualify for Nattys, you compared Jane's time in Utah to her other races without taking into account the effect of running at high elevation, you failed to comprehend the relevance of her teammate's performance, you accused me of moving the goal posts when I didn't, and you displayed confirmation bias and appeal to a subjective authority by quoting her coach.
Your problem is you are letting your emotions cloud your judgment. You are obviously a fan of Jane's (you even follow her father on social), and you are not willing to consider that she could have possibly made a mistake despite all the facts and logic I have presented to you. You think she can do no wrong but you will soon find out she did.
If you're this emotional now, you're really going to be a mess next weekend. Don't expect any sympathy from me.
1. What time do you think she should have run (and still won the race) that would have convinced you she didn't run too hard and potentially compromise her chances at the national meet?
2. Or, since this is a prelim to you, would it have been better if she finished in about 5-10th place?
3. Or, not run at all?
Basically, if it were up to you, what performance at the regional would have been optimal for her putting up her best effort at nationals?
Regional races are nothing more than prelims. Experienced runners like Pamela Kosgei know the goal is to advance with as little effort as possible. Kosgei held back because she was in a secure position and she knew her team was likely to qualify for nattys.
Jane Hedengren made the typical freshman mistake of running hard in a prelim. No reason to run as hard as she did. Completely unnecessary. She will probably pay for this mistake at natty next weekend.
Don't say I didn't warn you.
Guess you have absolutely nothing going on in your life!
1. What time do you think she should have run (and still won the race) that would have convinced you she didn't run too hard and potentially compromise her chances at the national meet?
2. Or, since this is a prelim to you, would it have been better if she finished in about 5-10th place?
3. Or, not run at all?
Basically, if it were up to you, what performance at the regional would have been optimal for her putting up her best effort at nationals?
I explained earlier that she ran 40 seconds faster than necessary. Do the math.
Guess you have absolutely nothing going on in your life!
Actually, I do. I am a well respected leader of my community with many responsibilities. That is why I must leave this thread until next Saturday.
I took time out of my busy schedule to impart my wisdom. I did it as a kindness to prepare the people of this forum for the disappointment that is coming next weekend. Rather than heeding my warning, the irrational mob attacked the messenger.
I will no longer share the gift of my experience with an ungrateful crowd. There are far better uses of my time.
If you see any comment that looks like it's from my user name between now and next Saturday, it is from the imposter using the lowercase l (as in: loser) for the first letter. I will not even open this thread again until next Saturday. So long.