I'm also worried Jakob might not run WC/has ended his outdoor season before it even started. I know that folks say we should be patient and hear from Jakob himself, but speculating doesn't really hurt anyone.
My wild guess is that he's delaying his announcement about it due to contractual obligations (mostly with Nike?). Hear me out. Yes, he's been mostly transparent about the injury, with a video update about it and mote videos about cross training, etc. However, let's review the timeline, which has been somewhat murky. Roughly speaking, the timeline was:
1. Jakob posts on IG about a session in Sierra Nevada.
2. Two weeks later, he posts a YT video of this workout.
3. 2-3 days later, we hear reports of him getting injured and pulling out of Bislet and Ostrava.
4. About a week or so later, Jakob posts a YT video in his garage, speaking about the injury.
Somewhere in between all these, Jakob consistently posted about his new Nike running collection, his new run club, etc. injury updates trickled in between all these announcements.
Now, again, we hear about missed races from his media team, and this morning we see him posting a story about Nike.
I wonder if they want him to promote them on social media, without saying much about his injury, till it's obvious. Sort of milk the for all its got.
Then why else would he be at alititude the last week? I mean I guess its possible he had a flareup the last few days but this doesn’t track with most of your post.
I understand that. It's unfortunate. I think the US qualifying is far from optimal. Having one off day should not spoil your chances if your the best or second best in the country, and you've proven that time after time said season. Did anyone have any doubts about Nuguse going to Tokyo after he did a 3:45.95 mile in Eugene, as well as doing a soild 1:44.77 in the 800m earlier this season? I doubt that. I've also heard many people saying Carl Lewis' got robbed in 1992, after he finished outside top 3 in the US trials (having a cold that day). The Gold in Barcelona was won in 9.96, and 2nd place finished in 10.02, so a top 2 should've definitely been within Lewis' reach (He won in Tokyo '91 in 9.86 and 4th in Stuttgart '93 in 10.02) And Timothy Cheruiyot had an off day in 2021 in the Kenyan US trials, he only finished 4th, but the Kenyan leadership had some common sense and sent Cheruiyoyt to Tokyo anyway (where he won silver). And from what I've head, one of the reasons as to why Armand Duplantis chose to represent Sweden, and not the U.S., was due to the qualifying system. The system should be changed. I know Nuguse's chances are pretty slim, but I really hope we get to see him in Tokyo.
And it also has an impact of the racing schedules of the American runners, it's unfortunate.
edit: Kerr isn't American. I think he should've competed a bit more (internationally) than only London DL after his GSL season. I know he races rarely, but I would more entertaining if he showed up more. (I really don't get why he wasn't a part of the Bowerman mile field)
If they can’t be ready for USATF in early August, why would expect them to be any better for the WC in September? Sports is about competition when everything is on line which makes the USATF second only to the WC. The system should not be changed.
There are a million things that could keep you from performing in august but where you still could perform really well in september, are you kidding me. Imagine if Hocker, SML, Mondo Duplantis etc was left off the team because they had a stomach bug that left them in the bathroom/bed for 24 hours a random day in august.
There are a million things that could keep you from performing in august but where you still could perform really well in september, are you kidding me. Imagine if Hocker, SML, Mondo Duplantis etc was left off the team because they had a stomach bug that left them in the bathroom/bed for 24 hours a random day in august.
And sometimes Steph Curry gets the flu and Golden State goes home in the first round. The US shouldn’t give people free entry to world’s based on politics.
Nobody has a clue. If this were a Kenya runner, many of you would be saying he was busted. No matter how you want to paint it, this is not positive news for Jakob. There is no counter argument.
Not at all the same. Jakob has been transparent about his injury from the very beginning. A Kenyan who runs one off the charts performance and disappears is a totally different scenario.
Also, Jakob has been in the testing pool since he was a kid and typically races more frequently than just about any other pro. He doesn't go into hiding.
Nobody has a clue. If this were a Kenya runner, many of you would be saying he was busted. No matter how you want to paint it, this is not positive news for Jakob. There is no counter argument.
Not at all the same. Jakob has been transparent about his injury from the very beginning. A Kenyan who runs one off the charts performance and disappears is a totally different scenario.
Also, Jakob has been in the testing pool since he was a kid and typically races more frequently than just about any other pro. He doesn't go into hiding.
So you are telling me Jakob is white? Ever heard of Mary Decker Slaney?
It's becoming increasingly clear that Jakob's running career is over. After having a child, the father suffers a drop in testosterone. An elite athlete should never have a child in the middle of their prime. They compromise their ability to recover and rebuild tendons/muscles permanently. Adding to that the unexpected and inexplicable (💉) rise of athletes like Cole Hocker, Phanuel Koech, Nico Young, and Azzedine Habz adds to him never medalling again in either event. It was a good run Jakob, but it's time to hang up the spikes.
A little truth to that but the NSA had him farked up with directed energy weapons located strategically around the globe. For it would also be true that same weapons can be turned into a benefit by healing Jakob’s tendons very quickly and never injring it again. They just don’t want him to succeed again.
I'm not responsible. My farking weapon does not reach Norway. So I have been concentrating on Trump's ankles. Just for fun.
I'm also worried Jakob might not run WC/has ended his outdoor season before it even started. I know that folks say we should be patient and hear from Jakob himself, but speculating doesn't really hurt anyone.
My wild guess is that he's delaying his announcement about it due to contractual obligations (mostly with Nike?). Hear me out. Yes, he's been mostly transparent about the injury, with a video update about it and mote videos about cross training, etc. However, let's review the timeline, which has been somewhat murky. Roughly speaking, the timeline was:
1. Jakob posts on IG about a session in Sierra Nevada.
2. Two weeks later, he posts a YT video of this workout.
3. 2-3 days later, we hear reports of him getting injured and pulling out of Bislet and Ostrava.
4. About a week or so later, Jakob posts a YT video in his garage, speaking about the injury.
Somewhere in between all these, Jakob consistently posted about his new Nike running collection, his new run club, etc. injury updates trickled in between all these announcements.
Now, again, we hear about missed races from his media team, and this morning we see him posting a story about Nike.
I wonder if they want him to promote them on social media, without saying much about his injury, till it's obvious. Sort of milk the for all its got.
Then why else would he be at alititude the last week? I mean I guess its possible he had a flareup the last few days but this doesn’t track with most of your post.
First of all, we don't know he was in St. Moritz last week. The timeline he posts seems to be delayed. He could have been there a few weeks ago and then have a flare-up, like you said. He might still be there though – we just don't know.
It was pretty clear though, that when he posted his YT video in Sierra Nevada, he was already back in Norway and injured, as the news about his injury broke a couple of days later.
Not sure how this doesn't add up with the timeline (which isn't supposed to be 100% accurate btw, it's an estimate).
P.S
I just realized his Nike story from today is promoting a race he's organizing on Sandens
We'll have to agree to disagree on that one. Either way, I'm glad Cheruiyot got the chance to run in Tokyo 2021, despite his 4th place in the Kenyan trials. And I'm glad Jakob not running the national championships (which was last weekend in Norway as well) doesn't automatically exclude him from the Norwegian team, if he's ready in mid September.
Another question (I'm genuinely curious, and I don't know the answer): If Hocker finished outside top 3 in the USTAF, could his Olympic gold from last year grant him a spot on the team or something similar? Or would that only apply to the defending WORLD CHAMPION? If Kerr had an absolute awful season this year (as well as doing badly in the British Championships (I know he won the 5000m)) would he be immune to any exclusion from the UK/GB squad? I know the rules for qualifying are diferrent in Britain compared to the U.S., but does defending world champions get a free spot (regardless of what country they're representing)? (I know that's the case in some other sports when it comes to defending world champions)
Hocker would not get a bye as the Olympic champion, that is pretty evident with how he said that making the team isn't a given.
Also, Rai Benjamin spoke about how he thinks that the Olympic champion should get a bye, at least for the WC in the immediate year following the Olympics. Like you said, it doesn't really make much sense that Kerr would get a bye, but Hocker wouldn't.
There are a million things that could keep you from performing in august but where you still could perform really well in september, are you kidding me. Imagine if Hocker, SML, Mondo Duplantis etc was left off the team because they had a stomach bug that left them in the bathroom/bed for 24 hours a random day in august.
And sometimes Steph Curry gets the flu and Golden State goes home in the first round. The US shouldn’t give people free entry to world’s based on politics.
Based politics? Its based on merits and who is most likely to medal, not who is best to avoid a stomach bug a random day in august.
And sometimes Steph Curry gets the flu and Golden State goes home in the first round. The US shouldn’t give people free entry to world’s based on politics.
Based politics? Its based on merits and who is most likely to medal, not who is best to avoid a stomach bug a random day in august.
“Most likely to medal” according to whom? How do you ensure that the process has no favoritism?
If likelihood of medals is your criteria, it can’t be seed times. It has to be a race. Winners in, and losers out.
Agreed. I don't think we should change the American qualification system because I think it's the fairest way to do it, and it gives our athletes valuable experience performing in championship conditions, which they can leverage at the global championship level.
But we have to recognize it means Americans shouldn't be expected to travel overseas to run Diamond League meets so soon before the U.S. championships. There's nothing "lame" about Americans skipping a European meet two weeks before the start of the U.S. championships. Americans face cutthroat competition to make the U.S. team; they need to prepare for it accordingly.
I also see this 1500/mile season very differently than Hobbyhurdler. I actually think this has been the most exciting outdoor season in that event in recent memory. It's had a bit of everything:
Fast times: 11 guys under 3:30 outdoors so far. That's already more than we had all of last year (8), and it matches the entire year for 2023.
Down-to-the-wire racing: Eugene DL was won by 0.01, Rome DL was won by 0.03, and GST Philly was won by 0.07.
The deepest mile in history (Bowerman Mile)
Intriguing matchups such as Wanyonyi vs the 2024 Olympic medalists
Surprise winners and top 3s
Multiple winners across the season, rather than just 1 or 2 guys dominating
Young talents leveling up such as Laros and Strand
Good balance of non-paced tactical races and rabbited races with pacing lights
Having Jakob involved would certainly make things even better, but there's still been plenty of excitement without him.
Looking ahead to Tokyo, this event seems wide open. Rather than only having 3 or 4 top contenders, it's more like 6 to 8. It feels like anything can happen, and that ups the excitement level.
All that said, I hope Jakob gets well and we see him back on the track sooner than later.
I think it’s moreso that there hasn’t been a star people can latch on to and hope wins every race. Jakob was basically that 2022-2024. I agree with all your stats and reasonings but really I think it just boils down to that one star. Without him there is just a new winner every week. Obviously that sounds rude but I think it’s just the way it is.
Yes, I understand your perspective. Stars help drive interest in the sport, whether people want to root for them or against them. But there's more than one star in men's middle-distance running, and I've always been more interested in the sport as a whole than in any individual.
Plus: I'm not sure how a fan of the sport could look at this Silesia men's 1500m start list and not be excited to watch this race:
Reynold Cheruiyot
Timothy Cheruiyot
Soufiane El Bakkali
Josh Hoey
Hobbs Kessler
Abel Kipsang
Festus Lagat
Niels Laros
Cameron Myers
Stefan Nillessen
Narve Nordas
Yared Nuguse
Filip Ostrowski
Filip Rak
Zan Rudolf
Patryk Sieradzki
Maciej Wyderka
Would Jakob's inclusion make the race even more exciting? Yes.
Not at all the same. Jakob has been transparent about his injury from the very beginning. A Kenyan who runs one off the charts performance and disappears is a totally different scenario.
It’s a flawed concept anyway. Kenyan road runners may disappear but the track runners don’t because they need to compete to make money. If they’re not competing it’s either injury or they got popped out of competition. The exception may be Japan-based runners but they do all the corporate team races etc. that are lower-key.
the longer jakob doesn't say anything, the better it looks, imo. if he's just putting a video out about getting in his first practice at race pace, do you really think he's ready to battle with the best?
no. he needs a good 4 or 5 week block of stacking workouts without interruption.
Jakob is a smart guy. look at how methodical he's been playing this. Mid June: finally starts running again. Early July: cuts the cross training and begins running full time. Mid July: off to altitude camp. Early Augus: first race pace work. I think it's fairly typical for people to say 4 to 6 weeks of specific prep to be fully ready for racing. Here we are.
My optimism is very cautious. but I see a lot of logic in the timeline that's been presented here.
This post was edited 1 minute after it was posted.
the longer jakob doesn't say anything, the better it looks, imo. if he's just putting a video out about getting in his first practice at race pace, do you really think he's ready to battle with the best?
no. he needs a good 4 or 5 week block of stacking workouts without interruption.
Jakob is a smart guy. look at how methodical he's been playing this. Mid June: finally starts running again. Early July: cuts the cross training and begins running full time. Mid July: off to altitude camp. Early Augus: first race pace work. I think it's fairly typical for people to say 4 to 6 weeks of specific prep to be fully ready for racing. Here we are.
My optimism is very cautious. but I see a lot of logic in the timeline that's been presented here.
The logic of the timeline makes sense. But he had previously announced that he was running Brussels and Silesia, and now he isn’t. That’s obviously a negative indicator. It could be some kind of mind game, but Ingebrigtsen has been very averse to those in the past.