"A man's got to know his limitations." -- Harry Callahan
Jonathan, with all due respect, you are unqualified to make such an assessment of Mu's trajectory. You don't have the personal athletic background, nor the observed/studied historical knowledge the sport, nor the intimate knowledge of Mu to make that opinion. I'm not trying to insult you, I'm simply saying your hubris is getting the better of you. Restrain yourself. You should respect your limitations. Are you cool with that?
You know the old adage, "Sometimes it's better to be quiet and be thought the fool, than to open your mouth and remove all doubt."
Never, EVER, attempt to speak for the readiness of an Olympic Gold medalist/World Champion/American Record-holder. She knows better than you.
On the other hand, with over 50 years of experience in the sport, I've seen this before. I've also been there, done that myself.
From personal experience: May 26 -- 8:48.6 3000m steeplechase June 11 -- 8:22.5 American record
Malmo:
1. I have worked for LetsRun.com for 11 years. My JOB is to make assessments about professional runners' trajectories. I don't have a perfect track record in my predictions, but does anyone? What are the qualifications for someone's "personal athletic background" to weigh in on such matters?
2. It would be pretty boring if I wasn't allowed to speak about the readiness of anyone who has won a gold medal or set an American record. And if you read my entire post, you'd know that I tried to put the performance in perspective.
3. Perhaps you should familiarize yourself more with Mu's results and interviews over the last three years before weighing in. You've seen this before? You've seen one of the world's greatest-ever combination 400/800 women go to a renowned sprint coach who had her focus more on the 800/1500, then open up her season by running a 5k and dropping out 3k in? Then run a 1500 against DII kids? Then another 1500 before finally running her first 800?
4. Who has the bigger hubris? A guy who has covered Mu's entire professional career? Or the guy who thinks that because he ran one slow steeple and one fast steeple 50 years ago that he knows exactly what's going on with a women's 800 runner in the year 2025?
I may not be as old as you, but I've been around long enough to see super-talented athletes have a bad race and follow it up with a good race. I know it happens and it could well happen here with Mu.
But I stand by my point that 2:00.42 in a race where she ran out of gas in the last 100 and lost to four Americans three weeks out from USAs is not a good result for a woman who ran 1:54 less than two years ago.
Jonathan Gault is by far the best track and field writer out there. that I have access to
But you're missing some chops in the sport, never mentored under a great coach, but not everyone can, reading lydiard, cerutti, peter coe, for a foundation is great buy you have to live it to get it really.
That said, Mu is converting a bit of a base and long sprinting into a sustained effort over 800m
and her first race she ran 600m or so at pace, then the next race 700m or so at pace.
and the next outing, she will be looking for the whole distance at pace
so the 2 00 min 800 result is a very good result in a comeback
a 158 is in the crosshairs now, we'll see if the progression
you see countless runners progress like this.
sure she's running out of time.
if she gets that 158 in the next 2 weeks, she's got a shot at the team.
After the way Sinclaire Johnson ran yesterday for 1000m, I wonder if her best chance to make the team might be the 800m. Her time was equivalent to 1:56.89 for 800m.
In the 1500m, she has to deal with Hiltz, Mackay, and MacLean; she could end up the odd one out like she did in 2024. In the 800m, she has to deal with Wiley and that's about it.
It looks like Sinclaire Johnson will be running the London Diamond League. She posted on social media from Twickenham, calling it "home for a few days." London DL has both a mile and an 800m. She does not have a qualifier for the 800m so she is either (1) running the 800 to give herself the option or (2) running a mile as a tune-up for the 1500m at USATFs.
Aside from her clear lack of race fitness, the one thing that is really different this year even from last year's trials, and certainly those of previous years, is that she's completely lost her aura now. She knows it too.
While some thrive off being the underdog, I think the huge knocks to her already fragile confidence from these last few races will be too much for her to overcome, even if she takes another few seconds off. She's not that 1.54/1.55 machine anymore.
During the month of June in 1972, Lasse Viren ran 4 5000m races:
1. 14:45 3rd
2. 13:49 1st
3. 13:54 1st
4. 13:37 2nd
In July 1972, Lasse ran 4 more 5000m races:
1. 13:51 3rd
2. 13:44 2nd
3. 13:33 2nd
4. 13:19 1st
That fall, Lasse won Gold at 5000m and 10000m. As Malmo says, maybe Athing Mu knows what is going on more than the posters here. I respect Gault’s and Thoughtsleader’s opinions. I don’t care if they ran super fast or not. But Malmo has some insight into this, at least insofar as the athlete may have a plan, and maybe the athlete and her coach don’t give a rat’s ass about message board posters’ hysteria. We shall see.
Wow, referring back to a dude who ran 53 years ago. That's totally relevant to this discussion for sure.
You obviously are out of your league here. The point is that you and your fellow know it alls would have been disparaging Lasse Viren as someone who has no chance due to his races in the summer of 1972. It is stunning that I have to point this out. I am NOT saying Athing is on her way to Gold this fall, but I am saying that maybe you should recognize for a minute how utterly ignorant you are about what is going on with Athing.
I think Malmo has a decent point in there somwhere. I mean Hocker improved almost 5 seconds from Pre last year (3:48 mile) to Paris (3:27). Maybe Kersee is going for this approach with all the overdistance training. Obviously she has a much smaller timeframe though.
Hocker had a pretty disruptive stumble in that race with Kessler and he had 10 weeks until Paris. This is completely different, Mu had a perfect trip to run 1:58-9 in this race, the 57s lap was too fast for her fitness.
Also, hocker had one of the fastest final 300 m in his Olympic trials win while running 3:30. This already suggested that in a perfectly paced race while drafting of others, he could run 3:28. So his improvement from there to the olympics was not that huge.
I think Malmo has a decent point in there somwhere. I mean Hocker improved almost 5 seconds from Pre last year (3:48 mile) to Paris (3:27). Maybe Kersee is going for this approach with all the overdistance training. Obviously she has a much smaller timeframe though.
Hocker had a pretty disruptive stumble in that race with Kessler and he had 10 weeks until Paris. This is completely different, Mu had a perfect trip to run 1:58-9 in this race, the 57s lap was too fast for her fitness.
Considering Hocker ran only a second faster at Pre last week, I don’t buy that stumble taking away anything really.
Hocker wouldn’t open anyways in the 55 Nuguse or Alvarado opened in so this doesn’t really matter.
And 2:00.42 is objectively "not good." Heck, two high school girls just ran faster than that. Jonathan didn't say "Mu can't make the team" he simply said her time wasn't good which is a true statement.
He's wrong. He's the same guy who said that Pre wasn't a competitor. He, and you, have no real historical perspective when it comes to competitive athletics. Mu is the real deal. Your "two high school kids" are not. (yet)
What you are missing is that she is, unfortunately, at least at the moment, a bit of "a head case."
The mental and emotional readiness is often as important as the physical.
With Mu right now, that is the bigger concern than her fitness.
(And pardon me for commenting on something I have no idea about, since clearly I am not as experienced and knowledgeable and brilliant and as awesome as yourself. No one is. We all apologize. 🙄]
Talent doesn’t go away but fitness does. It’s possible to race your way into shape but there aren’t enough races left. Let’s look at the Oly trials from last year to estimate what time it will take. Also she is less fit than last year so her chances are greatly diminished, especially with many collegians already running fast and some still improving and not overcooked.
Round 1 - fastest qualifier 1:59.57 (Rose) and slowest qualifier 2:02.64. (Mu ran 2:01.73 and was third in her heat.) So Mu should make it out of the first round.
Semis - fastest qualifier 1:58.84 (Mu) and slowest 2:01.11. She may struggle to get out of semis depending on who is in her heat and how the pace and tactics go.
Final - if she makes it to the final can she pull a rabbit out of the hat and run 1:58+ or maybe this year it will take 1:57+? 1 Nia Akins 1:57.36 PB 2 Allie Wilson 1:58.32 SB 3 Juliette Whittaker 1:58.45 PB 4 Michaela Rose 1:59.32 5 Sage Hurta-Klecker 2:00.38 6 Kristie Schoffield 2:01.04 7 Raevyn Rogers 2:01.12 8 Kate Grace 2:02.37 9 Athing Mu 2:19.69
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Promoting Excellence in Running, Integrity of Character, Clarity of Mind, Sublime Humor.
During the month of June in 1972, Lasse Viren ran 4 5000m races:
1. 14:45 3rd
2. 13:49 1st
3. 13:54 1st
4. 13:37 2nd
In July 1972, Lasse ran 4 more 5000m races:
1. 13:51 3rd
2. 13:44 2nd
3. 13:33 2nd
4. 13:19 1st
That fall, Lasse won Gold at 5000m and 10000m. As Malmo says, maybe Athing Mu knows what is going on more than the posters here. I respect Gault’s and Thoughtsleader’s opinions. I don’t care if they ran super fast or not. But Malmo has some insight into this, at least insofar as the athlete may have a plan, and maybe the athlete and her coach don’t give a rat’s ass about message board posters’ hysteria. We shall see.
You do know how Viren suddenly speeded up, don't you? Can't think of a worse example.
I am pretty that I know what you think and I'm pretty sure you have Nothing other than opinion on this score. There are reasons to think that he was not a good candidate for blood doping because his cell count was high so sat extra blood creates problems of being too thick. Of course you don't seem to know anything about the physiology and his specific situation.
If you do, make a cogent argument, if not you are a nag troll with no real content and are to be ignored.
Wow, referring back to a dude who ran 53 years ago. That's totally relevant to this discussion for sure.
You obviously are out of your league here. The point is that you and your fellow know it alls would have been disparaging Lasse Viren as someone who has no chance due to his races in the summer of 1972. It is stunning that I have to point this out. I am NOT saying Athing is on her way to Gold this fall, but I am saying that maybe you should recognize for a minute how utterly ignorant you are about what is going on with Athing.
Are you implying that Mu has a similar method of increasing her performance over just a short time as Viren employed?
Really. Were there any runners of note that were Known to have blood doped. Call it an era where a few runners were accused of blood doping. But you actually know nothing at all about who and probably nothing about blood doping. So don't post that you do and do so without Any caveats.
As far as I know there isn't anything showing that blood doping would be beneficial. So why don't you post that shows that it does. Otherwise stay away from something you seem to know nothing about in terms of what you have written. If you are going to counter someone's argument you need an argument not uninformed speculation. Go read Kenny Moore's piece on Viren in his Book (entitled something like Personal Bests). You do know who Kenny Moore is, done you, if not do some actual reading from people who know. I can guarantee you that Malmo knows who he is (most likely first hand knowledge).
This is some positive news. I don't think this makes her a lock, but as many others have opined, she is finally in the mix. I predict it will take 1:58.xx to make the team. I think Mu is just too talented not to shave off a second and a half.
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Promoting Excellence in Running, Integrity of Character, Clarity of Mind, Sublime Humor.
There is well documented evidence the entire East German sports scene systematically used multiple methods, including blood doping to enhance athletes performance.
