Faith Kipyegon breaking-4 official discussion thread (+watch party/reaction show at 1:55 pm ET)

I seriously don’t get why anyone cares about this. Blows my mind the brojos and 50% of lrc would care more about her running a fake sub 4 vs the men running an actual mile wr

It's called BS.

He'd be crashing his car again

Not so amazing considering where the thon wr is now

When the study claiming that she could run sub-4 came out in February, I did a thorough read. My conclusion was that the model was the most possible optimistic interpretation of what drafting would do - to the point of being completely unrealistic. So, she needs to shave off 2-3 seconds, at very minimum, from fitness alone - and still, that would require 5 seconds benefit from pacing and drafting. That's a tall order for a 31 year old 3x Olympic Gold medalist who is showing diminishing returns the past few years.

Kipchoge improved 1.6% off his already astounding best in the Sub2. She has to do nearly double that. I just see this being a setup for "failure" (especially since the media hasn't hyped this as she's chasing a new world record, but specficially sub-4).

I agree with others who see her being on track for 800m or 1000m, but after that it's going to be really hard.

Is there a chance she does it? Yeah, I'll say a 5% chance. It's possible, but really unlikely.

I wrote up some of my thoughts here:

beyondtheabstract.substack.com

Faith Kipyegon and the 4-Minute Mile: What Science Says, and What It Can’t

James Smoliga, DVM, PhD

She’s already the fastest woman in history. Whether she breaks four or not, let’s keep the hype in perspective — and the science honest.

Open link

How do you not get the negative comments. She’s Kenyan, which means most probably doping, considering all the other superhuman times she’s run in the past. This whole race is basically rigged on top of the PEDs: fast track, clothes, crazy shoes, pacing support like never before and God knows what else they have up their sleeve. This isn’t track anymore. It’s a circus. Yeah - not a big deal because of all this crap

Not the most intelligent pacing. You always want to even pace and finish strong to get the best result. Trying to save time at the begining almost never goes well

No. It's called entertainment and publicity.

There is no chance man. 0%. I am around her level currently, 3'48 1500m this season. My fastest 1k in training is 2'26 and my fastest 3000m is 8'10. There is no way in hell I go sub 4' in the mile. Not a chance. Having a pacer from start to finish doesnt make people run 5 seconds faster magically

I don’t think they’re aiming to “save time at the beginning.” 4:00.00 mile pace is 14.91 seconds per 100, and 1:59.3 at 800. Looks like dead-even splits is the plan.

I asked earlier in the thread whether we think she will a) fall off the pace intentionally and still run a fast time, or b) stay on the pace as long as possible and risk a spectacular blow up. (Yes, there is a "c" that she will run strong and come close or actually break 4:00, but I'm not sure anyone is predicting that.)

So, you are the perfect person to ask... if you hit 1k in 2:28, what do you think would happen over the next 609 meters if you tried to continue to hold the pace as long as possible?

I'm genuinely curious what you think that would look like for you, as someone around her current level.

My bet is on 4:05. Pacing will lead to a fast time, but conditions are less than ideal and the jump is just too big. Still, Kipyegon is a boss and the best ever, no doubt.