At this point, it’s obvious: open with a 52 second lap, but going 27/25, then maintaining that pace for the next 400. By that point (800 in 1:43), a sizable gap on the field will have opened up. No one will be able to touch him.
What is Jakob's best strategy to win in Tokyo in the 1500m?
Assuming he gets good training now leading up, and he gets to an even higher level than he was in 2024.
Problem is, now he has a lot of guys with outstanding fitness breathing down his neck, even though he might be the strongest on paper, the gap is not massive compared to what Tim C had in 2019.
Front-running would be extremely risky - but extremely rewarding (showing that you are just that good).
But front-running the entire 1500m is, as we've seen, not his best strategy if he merely wants to win.
Would a viable strategy be to squeeze from 800-900 meters out?
Which splits would you guys go for to maximize chances of winning?
These are the splits from Tokyo 2021. What's jarring about this race is how much of a perfect pacemaker Cheruiyot was. It was essentially a diamond league race. He paced Jakob exactly to his strengths. Jakob's 400m splits were 56.2 (cheruiyot then takes over and leads him to) 55.8 - 55.5 - final 300m of about 40.7-40.8 (while passing Cheruiyot on a bend so probably faster).
I don't understand how Jakob didn't get this in paris but he does best when the pace GRADUALLY winds up. That 3:28.32 race in Tokyo was astounding as he was only 20 years old at the time and he didn't even improve upon it until two years later. It was an all time mark for a 20 year old. I think the biggest thing was the pace regulation Cheruiyot gave him. Jakob could back off when he needed to and run right under his threshold for the first 1100m. He never split faster than 13.8-13.9 seconds in a 100m segment before then. In contrast, he opened the 2nd 100m in Paris in 13.3 for an overall first 400m in 54.8. That immediately put him in oxygen debt.
I also think running this way is a HUGE detriment to guys like Hocker, Nuguse, and Kerr when Jakob does it right. Time and time again, I've seen Jakob put seconds against these guys when the pace gradually goes up in the middle 800m. There are just so many examples. Monaco 2024:https://www.omegatiming.com/File/0002040C0102080101FFFFFFFFFFFF4E.pdf
From 400m - 1200m, Jakob runs the middle 800m in 1:50.7 Nuguse and Cheruiyot are already meters behind. Final 300 of 40.2. Nuguse and Cheruiyot more like 41 mid.
1:51.2 middle 800m, 41.05 final 300m (He put in a little too much effort from 900m-1100m, splitting 13.7 - 13.6, so the final 300 was a little slower, but that just proves my point in pace regulation.
Ok....so what was his middle 800m in Paris? 1:52.4. That was way slower than he has ever done since maybe his junior years? That opening 400m screwed him over. The guys behind him capitalized on this (Kerr split 1:52.6 from 400-1200m) and used their 800m chops to run past him while he was just going backwards in the final 100m.
I can guarantee with probably 90% certainty that if Jakob had run maybe 56 - 55.7 - 55.6 to that 1200m split of 2:47.3 in Paris, he would have had a much faster close. I can also MAYBE guarantee if he had run closer to 1:50 in that middle 800m, Nuguse and Hocker would not have closed as fast in that final 300m. In fact, they probably would have finished in 3:28 - 3:29 rather than 3:27. The way Jakob runs his races just aren't in their skillset, physiologically.
Now, does any of this matter? Probably not. Habz just ran 3:27 mid to low, and Ingebrigtsen probably does not have that fitness gap anymore. He would probably need to break El G 3:26 this season to convince me. Maybe 3:25.5? It's just a shame Jakob didn't realize this in Eugene, Budapest (Sickness, but that middle 800m segment was 1:54 so it further proves my point), and finally Paris. Highly likely he would have been a 2x OC. Maybe it was nerves, but everything before Paris pointed to the fact that he performs better when he runs the middle of the race faster than what he opens with. That 54.8 was really the nail in the coffin.
I agree with the sentiment here that his best way to win now is probably a fast final 1k while gradually winding up the pace. However, there is way more room for error in that approach. He has to time the wind up perfectly so that his final 100m is his fastest. If at any point in that wind up he crosses his threshold (put in an unneccessary surge) he can be going backwards just like he did in Paris. We'll see. The biggest thing now is just seeing how much that injury has taken out of him, and whether he even progresses.
This post was edited 6 minutes after it was posted.
What is Jakob's best strategy to win in Tokyo in the 1500m?
Assuming he gets good training now leading up, and he gets to an even higher level than he was in 2024.
Problem is, now he has a lot of guys with outstanding fitness breathing down his neck, even though he might be the strongest on paper, the gap is not massive compared to what Tim C had in 2019.
Front-running would be extremely risky - but extremely rewarding (showing that you are just that good).
But front-running the entire 1500m is, as we've seen, not his best strategy if he merely wants to win.
Would a viable strategy be to squeeze from 800-900 meters out?
Which splits would you guys go for to maximize chances of winning?
These are the splits from Tokyo 2021. What's jarring about this race is how much of a perfect pacemaker Cheruiyot was. It was essentially a diamond league race. He paced Jakob exactly to his strengths. Jakob's 400m splits were 56.2 (cheruiyot then takes over and leads him to) 55.8 - 55.5 - final 300m of about 40.7-40.8 (while passing Cheruiyot on a bend so probably faster).
I don't understand how Jakob didn't get this in paris but he does best when the pace GRADUALLY winds up. That 3:28.32 race in Tokyo was astounding as he was only 20 years old at the time and he didn't even improve upon it until two years later. I think the biggest thing was the pace regulation Cheruiyot gave him. Jakob could back off when he needed to and run right under his threshold for the first 1100m. He never split faster than 13.8-13.9 seconds in a 100m segment before then. In contrast, he opened the 2nd 100m in Paris in 13.3 for an overall first 400m in 54.8. That immediately put him in oxygen debt.
I also think running this way is a HUGE detriment to guys like Hocker, Nuguse, and Kerr when Jakob does it right. Time and time again, I've seen Jakob put seconds against these guys when the pace gradually goes up in the middle 800m. There are just so many examples. Monaco 2024:
From 400m - 1200m, Jakob runs the middle 800m in 1:50.7 Nuguse and Cheruiyot are already meters behind. Final 300 of 40.2. Nuguse and Cheruiyot more like 41 mid.
1:51.2 middle 800m, 41.05 final 300m (He put in a little too much effort from 900m-1100m, splitting 13.7 - 13.6, so the final 300 was a little slower, but that just proves my point in pace regulation.
Ok....so what was his middle 800m in Paris? 1:52.4. That was way slower than he has ever done since maybe his junior years? That opening 400m screwed him over. The guys behind him capitalized on this (Kerr split 1:52.6 from 400-1200m) and used their 800m chops to run past him while he was just going backwards in the final 100m.
I can guarantee with probably 90% certainty that if Jakob had run maybe 56 - 55.7 - 55.6 to that 1200m split of 2:47.3 in Paris, he would have had a much faster close. I can also MAYBE guarantee if he had run closer to 1:50 in that middle 800m, Nuguse and Hocker would not have closed as fast in that final 300m. In fact, they probably would have finished in 3:28 - 3:29 rather than 3:27. The way Jakob runs his races just aren't in their skillset, physiologically.
Now, does any of this matter? Probably not. Habz just ran 3:27 mid to low, and Ingebrigtsen probably does not have that fitness gap anymore. He would probably need to break El G 3:26 this season to convince me. Maybe 3:25.5? It's just a shame Jakob didn't realize this in Eugene, Budapest (Sickness, but that middle 800m segment was 1:54 so it further proves my point), and finally Paris. Highly likely he would have been a 2x OC. Maybe it was nerves, but everything before Paris pointed to the fact that he performs better when he runs the middle of the race faster than what he opens with. That 54.8 was really the nail in the coffin.
I agree with the sentiment here that his best way to win now is probably a fast final 1k while gradually winding up the pace. However, there is way more room for error in that approach. He has to time the wind up perfectly so that his final 100m is his fastest. If at any point in that wind up he crosses his threshold (put in an unneccessary surge) he can be going backwards just like he did in Paris. We'll see. The biggest thing now is just seeing how much that injury has taken out of him, and whether he even progresses.
One other thing. I know some of you guys will immediately respond with: "Oh but Nuguse, Hocker, and Kerr were not peaked...that's why they were so far back in those diamond league races."
I can understand that for SOME of the races I listed but majority are within weeks of worlds. No, there is no way Hocker or Nuguse are finding seconds in a 1500m at that level in only 3-4 weeks. This is the only rational argument one can make to assume they aren't doping. It's just the WAY the race is ran.
This post was edited 22 seconds after it was posted.
He virtually ran it in a 1500 as he scarcely raced the distance.
Good point. Compare this to the 800m specialist Ingebrigtsen who regularly competes in the DL against Sedjati and Wanyonyi
El G has run faster over 800 in a 1500 race than Ingebrigtsen has ever done. That he was a better runner with a better finish shows in his stream of WC titles that Ingebrigtsen has never won despite years of trying.
What is Jakob's best strategy to win in Tokyo in the 1500m?
Assuming he gets good training now leading up, and he gets to an even higher level than he was in 2024.
Problem is, now he has a lot of guys with outstanding fitness breathing down his neck, even though he might be the strongest on paper, the gap is not massive compared to what Tim C had in 2019.
Front-running would be extremely risky - but extremely rewarding (showing that you are just that good).
But front-running the entire 1500m is, as we've seen, not his best strategy if he merely wants to win.
Would a viable strategy be to squeeze from 800-900 meters out?
Which splits would you guys go for to maximize chances of winning?
These are the splits from Tokyo 2021. What's jarring about this race is how much of a perfect pacemaker Cheruiyot was. It was essentially a diamond league race. He paced Jakob exactly to his strengths. Jakob's 400m splits were 56.2 (cheruiyot then takes over and leads him to) 55.8 - 55.5 - final 300m of about 40.7-40.8 (while passing Cheruiyot on a bend so probably faster).
I don't understand how Jakob didn't get this in paris but he does best when the pace GRADUALLY winds up. That 3:28.32 race in Tokyo was astounding as he was only 20 years old at the time and he didn't even improve upon it until two years later. It was an all time mark for a 20 year old. I think the biggest thing was the pace regulation Cheruiyot gave him. Jakob could back off when he needed to and run right under his threshold for the first 1100m. He never split faster than 13.8-13.9 seconds in a 100m segment before then. In contrast, he opened the 2nd 100m in Paris in 13.3 for an overall first 400m in 54.8. That immediately put him in oxygen debt.
I also think running this way is a HUGE detriment to guys like Hocker, Nuguse, and Kerr when Jakob does it right. Time and time again, I've seen Jakob put seconds against these guys when the pace gradually goes up in the middle 800m. There are just so many examples. Monaco 2024:
From 400m - 1200m, Jakob runs the middle 800m in 1:50.7 Nuguse and Cheruiyot are already meters behind. Final 300 of 40.2. Nuguse and Cheruiyot more like 41 mid.
1:51.2 middle 800m, 41.05 final 300m (He put in a little too much effort from 900m-1100m, splitting 13.7 - 13.6, so the final 300 was a little slower, but that just proves my point in pace regulation.
Ok....so what was his middle 800m in Paris? 1:52.4. That was way slower than he has ever done since maybe his junior years? That opening 400m screwed him over. The guys behind him capitalized on this (Kerr split 1:52.6 from 400-1200m) and used their 800m chops to run past him while he was just going backwards in the final 100m.
I can guarantee with probably 90% certainty that if Jakob had run maybe 56 - 55.7 - 55.6 to that 1200m split of 2:47.3 in Paris, he would have had a much faster close. I can also MAYBE guarantee if he had run closer to 1:50 in that middle 800m, Nuguse and Hocker would not have closed as fast in that final 300m. In fact, they probably would have finished in 3:28 - 3:29 rather than 3:27. The way Jakob runs his races just aren't in their skillset, physiologically.
Now, does any of this matter? Probably not. Habz just ran 3:27 mid to low, and Ingebrigtsen probably does not have that fitness gap anymore. He would probably need to break El G 3:26 this season to convince me. Maybe 3:25.5? It's just a shame Jakob didn't realize this in Eugene, Budapest (Sickness, but that middle 800m segment was 1:54 so it further proves my point), and finally Paris. Highly likely he would have been a 2x OC. Maybe it was nerves, but everything before Paris pointed to the fact that he performs better when he runs the middle of the race faster than what he opens with. That 54.8 was really the nail in the coffin.
I agree with the sentiment here that his best way to win now is probably a fast final 1k while gradually winding up the pace. However, there is way more room for error in that approach. He has to time the wind up perfectly so that his final 100m is his fastest. If at any point in that wind up he crosses his threshold (put in an unneccessary surge) he can be going backwards just like he did in Paris. We'll see. The biggest thing now is just seeing how much that injury has taken out of him, and whether he even progresses.
I don’t know why everyone loves the ever increasing pace strategy for Ingebrigtsen. For the last 1000m he needs to get from point A to point B as fast as possible and that would be accomplished through an even pace. If he pushed himself too hard with the always increasing pace, there still be guys close enough to outkick him at the end.
These are the splits from Tokyo 2021. What's jarring about this race is how much of a perfect pacemaker Cheruiyot was. It was essentially a diamond league race. He paced Jakob exactly to his strengths. Jakob's 400m splits were 56.2 (cheruiyot then takes over and leads him to) 55.8 - 55.5 - final 300m of about 40.7-40.8 (while passing Cheruiyot on a bend so probably faster).
I don't understand how Jakob didn't get this in paris but he does best when the pace GRADUALLY winds up. That 3:28.32 race in Tokyo was astounding as he was only 20 years old at the time and he didn't even improve upon it until two years later. It was an all time mark for a 20 year old. I think the biggest thing was the pace regulation Cheruiyot gave him. Jakob could back off when he needed to and run right under his threshold for the first 1100m. He never split faster than 13.8-13.9 seconds in a 100m segment before then. In contrast, he opened the 2nd 100m in Paris in 13.3 for an overall first 400m in 54.8. That immediately put him in oxygen debt.
I also think running this way is a HUGE detriment to guys like Hocker, Nuguse, and Kerr when Jakob does it right. Time and time again, I've seen Jakob put seconds against these guys when the pace gradually goes up in the middle 800m. There are just so many examples. Monaco 2024:
From 400m - 1200m, Jakob runs the middle 800m in 1:50.7 Nuguse and Cheruiyot are already meters behind. Final 300 of 40.2. Nuguse and Cheruiyot more like 41 mid.
1:51.2 middle 800m, 41.05 final 300m (He put in a little too much effort from 900m-1100m, splitting 13.7 - 13.6, so the final 300 was a little slower, but that just proves my point in pace regulation.
Ok....so what was his middle 800m in Paris? 1:52.4. That was way slower than he has ever done since maybe his junior years? That opening 400m screwed him over. The guys behind him capitalized on this (Kerr split 1:52.6 from 400-1200m) and used their 800m chops to run past him while he was just going backwards in the final 100m.
I can guarantee with probably 90% certainty that if Jakob had run maybe 56 - 55.7 - 55.6 to that 1200m split of 2:47.3 in Paris, he would have had a much faster close. I can also MAYBE guarantee if he had run closer to 1:50 in that middle 800m, Nuguse and Hocker would not have closed as fast in that final 300m. In fact, they probably would have finished in 3:28 - 3:29 rather than 3:27. The way Jakob runs his races just aren't in their skillset, physiologically.
Now, does any of this matter? Probably not. Habz just ran 3:27 mid to low, and Ingebrigtsen probably does not have that fitness gap anymore. He would probably need to break El G 3:26 this season to convince me. Maybe 3:25.5? It's just a shame Jakob didn't realize this in Eugene, Budapest (Sickness, but that middle 800m segment was 1:54 so it further proves my point), and finally Paris. Highly likely he would have been a 2x OC. Maybe it was nerves, but everything before Paris pointed to the fact that he performs better when he runs the middle of the race faster than what he opens with. That 54.8 was really the nail in the coffin.
I agree with the sentiment here that his best way to win now is probably a fast final 1k while gradually winding up the pace. However, there is way more room for error in that approach. He has to time the wind up perfectly so that his final 100m is his fastest. If at any point in that wind up he crosses his threshold (put in an unneccessary surge) he can be going backwards just like he did in Paris. We'll see. The biggest thing now is just seeing how much that injury has taken out of him, and whether he even progresses.
I don’t know why everyone loves the ever increasing pace strategy for Ingebrigtsen. For the last 1000m he needs to get from point A to point B as fast as possible and that would be accomplished through an even pace. If he pushed himself too hard with the always increasing pace, there still be guys close enough to outkick him at the end.
I think it mainly has to do with his physiology. He accumulated very little lactic acid that way, as opposed to running even splits the whole race. There is a reason he always requests for the pacemakers to be set up that way. Even his 3000m WR, he made sure to start slightly below WR pace before cranking it up later in the race.
He loves to race that way (and is insanely good at it. He's able to slowly increase the pace marginally every 100m with crazy precision. Look at the euro 2024 splits, crazy)
I don’t know why everyone loves the ever increasing pace strategy for Ingebrigtsen. For the last 1000m he needs to get from point A to point B as fast as possible and that would be accomplished through an even pace. If he pushed himself too hard with the always increasing pace, there still be guys close enough to outkick him at the end.
I think it mainly has to do with his physiology. He accumulated very little lactic acid that way, as opposed to running even splits the whole race. There is a reason he always requests for the pacemakers to be set up that way. Even his 3000m WR, he made sure to start slightly below WR pace before cranking it up later in the race.
He loves to race that way (and is insanely good at it. He's able to slowly increase the pace marginally every 100m with crazy precision. Look at the euro 2024 splits, crazy)
Euro 2024 splits for the last 700m
14.61 14.12 13.98 13.69 13.54 13.25 12.86
The guy that finished 2nd in that race has a PR that’s 5 seconds slower than Jakob’s PR. Those splits are impressive for their consistency, but it’s going to take far more firepower to hold off the big boys at WC.
I think it mainly has to do with his physiology. He accumulated very little lactic acid that way, as opposed to running even splits the whole race. There is a reason he always requests for the pacemakers to be set up that way. Even his 3000m WR, he made sure to start slightly below WR pace before cranking it up later in the race.
He loves to race that way (and is insanely good at it. He's able to slowly increase the pace marginally every 100m with crazy precision. Look at the euro 2024 splits, crazy)
Euro 2024 splits for the last 700m
14.61 14.12 13.98 13.69 13.54 13.25 12.86
The guy that finished 2nd in that race has a PR that’s 5 seconds slower than Jakob’s PR. Those splits are impressive for their consistency, but it’s going to take far more firepower to hold off the big boys at WC.
I agree, it's going to take more in the WC this year. The field is so damn deep. It's hard to predict whether he'll be able to do these splits faster come WC, but I think that both we and Jakob will know alot more after Silesia.
Hicham El Guerrouj was 24 years and 296 days old when he set the mile world record of 3:43.13 on July 7, 1999.
On July 5, 2025 at the Nike Pre Classic, Jakob Ingebrigtsen will be 24 years and 289 days old, exactly 7 days younger than Hicham was when he set the mile world record.
------
If he is not able to run 0.14 seconds faster than Hicham did 26 years ago, with super spike technology, Jakob is WASHED
As soon as Jakob went to the front in the Paris final, I immediately thought, "Holy smokes, bad idea". Your analysis hits the nail on the head why this is a bad idea.
While Jakob has a reputation for front running, he actually never does it for an entire race unless he is sitting behind 2 pacers, or running at Norwegian Champs in the rain for lols.
This post was edited 6 minutes after it was posted.
All of your examples were from DL races and of course he could nail the pacing with the advent of a pacing light.
It's not that Jakob didn't get it, but it's just not possible without wavelight. Human is no metronome however fine-tuned someone is. And most of his opponents aren't really peaking for the DL either. That's why there's a dispensary between Jakob in DLs and championship finals (v.s his opponents), except for one race, which is 2021 Tokyo, but as you said, that's essentially a DL set-up which will hardly happen again unless someone truly head and shoulders above anyone else comes by.
What is Jakob's best strategy to win in Tokyo in the 1500m?
Assuming he gets good training now leading up, and he gets to an even higher level than he was in 2024.
Problem is, now he has a lot of guys with outstanding fitness breathing down his neck, even though he might be the strongest on paper, the gap is not massive compared to what Tim C had in 2019.
Front-running would be extremely risky - but extremely rewarding (showing that you are just that good).
But front-running the entire 1500m is, as we've seen, not his best strategy if he merely wants to win.
Would a viable strategy be to squeeze from 800-900 meters out?
Which splits would you guys go for to maximize chances of winning?
These are the splits from Tokyo 2021. What's jarring about this race is how much of a perfect pacemaker Cheruiyot was. It was essentially a diamond league race. He paced Jakob exactly to his strengths. Jakob's 400m splits were 56.2 (cheruiyot then takes over and leads him to) 55.8 - 55.5 - final 300m of about 40.7-40.8 (while passing Cheruiyot on a bend so probably faster).
I don't understand how Jakob didn't get this in paris but he does best when the pace GRADUALLY winds up. That 3:28.32 race in Tokyo was astounding as he was only 20 years old at the time and he didn't even improve upon it until two years later. It was an all time mark for a 20 year old. I think the biggest thing was the pace regulation Cheruiyot gave him. Jakob could back off when he needed to and run right under his threshold for the first 1100m. He never split faster than 13.8-13.9 seconds in a 100m segment before then. In contrast, he opened the 2nd 100m in Paris in 13.3 for an overall first 400m in 54.8. That immediately put him in oxygen debt.
I also think running this way is a HUGE detriment to guys like Hocker, Nuguse, and Kerr when Jakob does it right. Time and time again, I've seen Jakob put seconds against these guys when the pace gradually goes up in the middle 800m. There are just so many examples. Monaco 2024:
From 400m - 1200m, Jakob runs the middle 800m in 1:50.7 Nuguse and Cheruiyot are already meters behind. Final 300 of 40.2. Nuguse and Cheruiyot more like 41 mid.
1:51.2 middle 800m, 41.05 final 300m (He put in a little too much effort from 900m-1100m, splitting 13.7 - 13.6, so the final 300 was a little slower, but that just proves my point in pace regulation.
Ok....so what was his middle 800m in Paris? 1:52.4. That was way slower than he has ever done since maybe his junior years? That opening 400m screwed him over. The guys behind him capitalized on this (Kerr split 1:52.6 from 400-1200m) and used their 800m chops to run past him while he was just going backwards in the final 100m.
I can guarantee with probably 90% certainty that if Jakob had run maybe 56 - 55.7 - 55.6 to that 1200m split of 2:47.3 in Paris, he would have had a much faster close. I can also MAYBE guarantee if he had run closer to 1:50 in that middle 800m, Nuguse and Hocker would not have closed as fast in that final 300m. In fact, they probably would have finished in 3:28 - 3:29 rather than 3:27. The way Jakob runs his races just aren't in their skillset, physiologically.
Now, does any of this matter? Probably not. Habz just ran 3:27 mid to low, and Ingebrigtsen probably does not have that fitness gap anymore. He would probably need to break El G 3:26 this season to convince me. Maybe 3:25.5? It's just a shame Jakob didn't realize this in Eugene, Budapest (Sickness, but that middle 800m segment was 1:54 so it further proves my point), and finally Paris. Highly likely he would have been a 2x OC. Maybe it was nerves, but everything before Paris pointed to the fact that he performs better when he runs the middle of the race faster than what he opens with. That 54.8 was really the nail in the coffin.
I agree with the sentiment here that his best way to win now is probably a fast final 1k while gradually winding up the pace. However, there is way more room for error in that approach. He has to time the wind up perfectly so that his final 100m is his fastest. If at any point in that wind up he crosses his threshold (put in an unneccessary surge) he can be going backwards just like he did in Paris. We'll see. The biggest thing now is just seeing how much that injury has taken out of him, and whether he even progresses.
you clearly underestimated Hocker and Kerr. 1:50-1 or 1:52-3, Ingy wasn't gonna win. In fact, no one would've beaten Hocker or Kerr on that day. They didn't just run a 3:27, they closed it in 53 which meant with an more even pacing, they would've run even faster. If Ingy ran it like you said and did a mid-3:27, Hocker/Kerr would still have run a 3:27 low or 3:26-high to top that.
So El G didn't run 1:46x for the last 800 in Athens? And what is Ingebrigtsen's fastest 800 time?
1:46.44, 0.74s faster than El G's 1:47.18.
Good point, Dumb. As always.
El G ran faster over an 800 in a 1500 than he did in an 800 race. Ingebrigtsen has never got near his 800 best in a 1500. The difference shows in El G's 7 WC 1500 titles to Ingebrigtsen's zero.
I have. He doesn't have a strategy. He's tried all of them - lead from the gun, lead from 600 to go, kick over the last 100m - they don't work for him now over the 1500 against the best.
Armstronglivs is actually right on this. Jakob has at this point exhausted every option against his competition. Now there are more studs that are right there jockeying for position, and I think as of right now nobody in the 1500 conversation has a clear advantage over anyone else. Some can hang and have blistering kicks like Hocker, some can squeeze from 600 out like Jakob and Nuguse. Literally every person in the field could get gold in Tokyo if it's their day. Threads discussing Jakob being any kind of favorite are clearly behind the times with guys like Koech and others on the scene now.
I will say that if Jakob does manage to pull off the gold in Tokyo, especially after being hurt all season, that should almost instantly shut the doubters up. It will be a freaking miracle whether he wins with a kick or from leading from the start. I can imagine the Jakob doubters losing their mind if that happens, because at that point there may be some kind of conversation if he is in fact the GOAT miler. And if he gets the WR, OMG the haters will have a meltdown. The boards will malfunction. Hell, even if Jakob is juiced with some kind of undetectable drug and wins, it'll still be impressive, because everyone else is doping anyway. Let's be real.