14:57 and she even led for a good chunk of the race. not even the pros did any of the heavy lifting and she still smoked them. unbelievable. brave and fearless racing.
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C'mon girl is not stupid. They will have a plan. Either back of lead pack, or running with a 2nd group looking for 15:00-15:15.
She's fit enough to try: 3:00, 6:00, 9:00, 12:00 thru 4k and then hang on.
They could also try to hit 4k in 12:16 and have something left to close.
One way or the other, they will have a plan.
On the contrary, I think she has as close to zero incentive as possible to run a "smart" race. She already has the high school record, the is close to zero expectations about her winning this race. She likely is going for broke, the lead group will be marginally sub 15 pace (14:52 probably) I don't think it makes any sense for her to not go with the leaders. Sub 15 or bust.
She ran brave and was rewarded. She made the race when the pacer dropped. All time great performance. Probably the hardest HS record now?
On the contrary, I think she has as close to zero incentive as possible to run a "smart" race. She already has the high school record, the is close to zero expectations about her winning this race. She likely is going for broke, the lead group will be marginally sub 15 pace (14:52 probably) I don't think it makes any sense for her to not go with the leaders. Sub 15 or bust.
She ran brave and was rewarded. She made the race when the pacer dropped. All time great performance. Probably the hardest HS record now?
And an official 9:00.16, which matches Alexa Efraimson's national high school record for 3000m from 2014 -
There isn't an official split for it because they messed up the camera placement at Arcadia, but I hand timed her at around 8:54 en route during her 2-mile.
5000 (indoor) - 15:13.26 (1161 WA points) - equates to 15:01.30 outdoor 5000 mile (indoor) - 4:26 (1176 WA points) - equates to 14:53.58 outdoor 5000 2-mile (outdoor) - 9:34.12 (1124 WA points) - equates to 15:20.55 outdoor 5000
I am skeptical of the indoor-to-outdoor conversions that WA uses. She is certainly not running 14:53 anytime soon. On an absolutely perfect day with perfect pacing, I think she could go about 15:05.
Her indoor mile indicated 14:53 and her indoor 5000 indicated 15:01 so she hit it right in the middle. Usually indoor-outdoor conversions don't work out so well.
After watching the Men’s 5000, 3000 SC, and 10000 yesterday and today I can confirm that the next 2-3 years of NCAA distance running are going to be East African dominated. This will possibly make or break top American NCAA runners. Simply looking at the 5000m, New Mexico had five East African returning athletes (all Freshman or Sophomores currently) run under 13:40. Their top American ran 14:21 in the open race. In the 10000m, Redshirt Senior Dylan Schubert of Furman had to hold off the following Freshman/Sophomore East African D1 returners: Ernest Cheruiyot (SO) Texas Tech Dismus Lokira (FR) Alabama Robin Kwemoi Bera (FR) Iowa State In the 3000m SC, Redshirt Junior Rob McManus of Montana State (the school that produced Duncan Hamilton) got absolutely dropped by 25 year old Geoffrey Kirwa (FR) of Louisville. Other East African Freshman Joash Ruto of Iowa State and Bismack Kipchirchir of Akron fought with him until the end. Long story short, this meet has made me conclude that this year is the bridge year into complete East African domination in the NCAA. With a majority of the top Americans running out of eligibility after this Spring, it paves the way for the cross country field to be a majority top-heavy Kenyan list this Fall. This will pave the way for even more top American performances, however. I can see individuals including Rocky Hansen, Marco Langon, Will Zegarski, Gary Martin, and hell, maybe even this Summer this will prompt James Corrigan and Rob McManus to make shots at the US Olympic Team again, and next year, as they both will be Seniors eligibility wise. TLDR: NCAA will become East African dominated, but the top Americans will prosper; just as they did today for the most part
After watching the Men’s 5000, 3000 SC, and 10000 yesterday and today I can confirm that the next 2-3 years of NCAA distance running are going to be East African dominated. This will possibly make or break top American NCAA runners. Simply looking at the 5000m, New Mexico had five East African returning athletes (all Freshman or Sophomores currently) run under 13:40. Their top American ran 14:21 in the open race. In the 10000m, Redshirt Senior Dylan Schubert of Furman had to hold off the following Freshman/Sophomore East African D1 returners: Ernest Cheruiyot (SO) Texas Tech Dismus Lokira (FR) Alabama Robin Kwemoi Bera (FR) Iowa State In the 3000m SC, Redshirt Junior Rob McManus of Montana State (the school that produced Duncan Hamilton) got absolutely dropped by 25 year old Geoffrey Kirwa (FR) of Louisville. Other East African Freshman Joash Ruto of Iowa State and Bismack Kipchirchir of Akron fought with him until the end. Long story short, this meet has made me conclude that this year is the bridge year into complete East African domination in the NCAA. With a majority of the top Americans running out of eligibility after this Spring, it paves the way for the cross country field to be a majority top-heavy Kenyan list this Fall. This will pave the way for even more top American performances, however. I can see individuals including Rocky Hansen, Marco Langon, Will Zegarski, Gary Martin, and hell, maybe even this Summer this will prompt James Corrigan and Rob McManus to make shots at the US Olympic Team again, and next year, as they both will be Seniors eligibility wise. TLDR: NCAA will become East African dominated, but the top Americans will prosper; just as they did today for the most part
You're forgetting a key detail.
Gans Creek will be absolutely frigid come late November and early December. The cold is the great equalizer. The East Africans really don't like it (excluding Samuel, he usually seems to do fine)
Samuel and Musau are still my 1-2 picks, but expect the top 10 to be filled with guys like George Couttie, Sam Lawler, William Zegarski (Langon is redshirting).
After watching the Men’s 5000, 3000 SC, and 10000 yesterday and today I can confirm that the next 2-3 years of NCAA distance running are going to be East African dominated. This will possibly make or break top American NCAA runners. Simply looking at the 5000m, New Mexico had five East African returning athletes (all Freshman or Sophomores currently) run under 13:40. Their top American ran 14:21 in the open race. In the 10000m, Redshirt Senior Dylan Schubert of Furman had to hold off the following Freshman/Sophomore East African D1 returners: Ernest Cheruiyot (SO) Texas Tech Dismus Lokira (FR) Alabama Robin Kwemoi Bera (FR) Iowa State In the 3000m SC, Redshirt Junior Rob McManus of Montana State (the school that produced Duncan Hamilton) got absolutely dropped by 25 year old Geoffrey Kirwa (FR) of Louisville. Other East African Freshman Joash Ruto of Iowa State and Bismack Kipchirchir of Akron fought with him until the end. Long story short, this meet has made me conclude that this year is the bridge year into complete East African domination in the NCAA. With a majority of the top Americans running out of eligibility after this Spring, it paves the way for the cross country field to be a majority top-heavy Kenyan list this Fall. This will pave the way for even more top American performances, however. I can see individuals including Rocky Hansen, Marco Langon, Will Zegarski, Gary Martin, and hell, maybe even this Summer this will prompt James Corrigan and Rob McManus to make shots at the US Olympic Team again, and next year, as they both will be Seniors eligibility wise. TLDR: NCAA will become East African dominated, but the top Americans will prosper; just as they did today for the most part
while i agree this latest wave of african runners to the NCAA will change everything, on the bright side by raising the bar some great young american runners will step up and train harder. while some will unfortunately get injured, a few will break thru and become top US olympic runners like this country has never seen.
and while I think this is more true in outdoor/indoor t&f. meanwhile, XC is more of an unknown. last years Nats proved there's a lot more to winning team titles than just taking a recruiting trip to Kenya.
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On the contrary, I think she has as close to zero incentive as possible to run a "smart" race. She already has the high school record, the is close to zero expectations about her winning this race. She likely is going for broke, the lead group will be marginally sub 15 pace (14:52 probably) I don't think it makes any sense for her to not go with the leaders. Sub 15 or bust.
She ran brave and was rewarded. She made the race when the pacer dropped. All time great performance.
Probably the hardest HS record now?
Athing Mu's indoor 600 1:23 is much harder to break. And I don't think Sydney's 400H record is getting broken any time soon.
Michaela tried the sit-and-kick approach indoors. Didn't work.
So, back to her old ways.
But 56-point opener? That's Diamond League quality.
However, if you're going to commit to front running, just might a well steel yourself by going out as hard as the world's best often do, anticipating -- sooner or later -- your endurance will catch up with your speed, then, presto, you're running 1:56s and making national teams.
Exactly. She had a ton of fans in Virginia Beach. They were shouting her name from the stands because it's not far from her hometown.
Then mid race the shouting all but ceased. Micaela was doing nothing. She allowed Paige to run the race Micaela had always run previously.
Classic case of totally betraying herself. All of us were bewildered and talking about it in the stands.
Then a couple of weeks later I watched the replay. Dwight Stones during the telecast was saying the same thing, that it was the strangest race Micaela Rose has ever run.
She can look to the sky all she wants with that strategy. There will be no answer.
The one guarantee coming out of indoors was that she would go back to being a frontrunner.
And across the pond the natural frontrunner Audrey Werro should do the same thing. Likewise she tried to change things up during indoors and had no idea what she was doing. It resulted in falling on her race when she tried to rally in traffic.
There isn't an official split for it because they messed up the camera placement at Arcadia, but I hand timed her at around 8:54 en route during her 2-mile.
My estimate for Jane's 3 km during her 2 mi is 8:54.4.
What is your estimate for Jane's 3 mile time during this 5000 m? Just off pace, I have 14:26.8, but 3 miles is made easier since it's 4828m and very small change (32 mm), and there's a wave light literally every meter. I'll have to check the race video.