Is it Jakob's fault if your best runners are ducking him again and again? Difference between Jakob and second is much bigger than difference between 2nd and 22nd in the world.
Not at all! Three things can be true at once:
Jakob is unbeatable in every type of 3,000-5,000m race unpaced, paced etc.
Jakob is pretty much unbeatable in a paced 1500 or one vs. all but the top 5 guys in the world
Jakob is beatable by at least one and sometime a few more of the top 5 guys in the world in an unpaced race based on his preferred tactics of taking the pace for at least half of the race
Yeah I think that's pretty damn accurate. The only one we don't quite know about is the first one - how would he fare in a WL paced 5000m that chugging along at 12.38 pace but based on a number of things it's fair to hypothesize he'd be just okay.
With respect to the difference between Jakob and 2nd in the world being far greater than 2nd and 22nd, that post you responded to is sadly ridiculous.
Anyone of Hocker, Nuguse, Kerr are far, far closer to Jakob than those trio are to Frederico Riva who is the worlds 22nd ranked 1500m runner (or even Robert Farken if you wanted to base it on time). For reference the 22nd best time in the world last year was 3.32.20 - I don't need to do the math.
In a different dimension, winning either a gold or a silver in the olympics and the following two world championships is considered really good. There is a reason there is only one other active runner that is close to the same.
Tbf he won because Cheruiyot had a hamstring injury that year!
seems the next guy always wins gold in the 1500m unless your last name is Kipyegon or Morcelli
Timothy ran his fastest championship time ever in Tokyo. Would he have broken the WR if he hadn´t had the "hamstring" injury?
...With respect to the difference between Jakob and 2nd in the world being far greater than 2nd and 22nd, that post you responded to is sadly ridiculous.
Anyone of Hocker, Nuguse, Kerr are far, far closer to Jakob than those trio are to Frederico Riva who is the worlds 22nd ranked 1500m runner (or even Robert Farken if you wanted to base it on time). For reference the 22nd best time in the world last year was 3.32.20 - I don't need to do the math.
It seems you are trying to look very smart. That comparison was made figuratively. 22nd was chosen to use only the number 2. However, no one mentioned a difference in time, I was referring to the overall quality of the runners and I stand by that. By the way all the other 21 together on any list is a question of whether they have won as much as Jakob alone has.
Jakob is unbeatable in every type of 3,000-5,000m race unpaced, paced etc.
Jakob is pretty much unbeatable in a paced 1500 or one vs. all but the top 5 guys in the world
Jakob is beatable by at least one and sometime a few more of the top 5 guys in the world in an unpaced race based on his preferred tactics of taking the pace for at least half of the race
Yeah I think that's pretty damn accurate. The only one we don't quite know about is the first one - how would he fare in a WL paced 5000m that chugging along at 12.38 pace but based on a number of things it's fair to hypothesize he'd be just okay.
With respect to the difference between Jakob and 2nd in the world being far greater than 2nd and 22nd, that post you responded to is sadly ridiculous.
Anyone of Hocker, Nuguse, Kerr are far, far closer to Jakob than those trio are to Frederico Riva who is the worlds 22nd ranked 1500m runner (or even Robert Farken if you wanted to base it on time). For reference the 22nd best time in the world last year was 3.32.20 - I don't need to do the math.
Just back from LA after watching THE key meet of the weekend, the D3 Oxy Distance Carnival….jk.
Trying to catch up. Listening to the Friday podcast with with Robert and Weldon going on about what it would mean if Laros beat Jakob in the 3000 today. Wtf!!! Was that meant to be serious? Ill or not, what on earth would lease anybody to believe Laros was primed to beat Jakob. The Jakob who just ran 3:45 in his “weak” event. The Laros who is 12 seconds slower than Jakob at 3000??? I have a similarly insightful thought…..if Jakob runs 3:24 at worlds, it’s going to be bad news for Cole Hocker.
This post was edited 39 seconds after it was posted.
It seems you are trying to look very smart. That comparison was made figuratively. 22nd was chosen to use only the number 2. However, no one mentioned a difference in time, I was referring to the overall quality of the runners and I stand by that. By the way all the other 21 together on any list is a question of whether they have won as much as Jakob alone has.
You can dress it up however you want it’s just wrong. There’re a decent chunk of guys running 3:30-3:32 but that’s more than 2s and often more than 3s behind the trio who beat Jakob. And that trio is at most 1.5s off if you generously say he’s in 3:26.1s shape.
It seems you are trying to look very smart. That comparison was made figuratively. 22nd was chosen to use only the number 2. However, no one mentioned a difference in time, I was referring to the overall quality of the runners and I stand by that. By the way all the other 21 together on any list is a question of whether they have won as much as Jakob alone has.
You can dress it up however you want it’s just wrong. There’re a decent chunk of guys running 3:30-3:32 but that’s more than 2s and often more than 3s behind the trio who beat Jakob. And that trio is at most 1.5s off if you generously say he’s in 3:26.1s shape.
You are completely correct, but 21 runners all together haven't win more races than Jakob alone. And every single one of them is grateful to Jakob for their PB, with the exception of Josh, who ran his record from gun to wire. 😀
regarding the 400m flat speed, i think most of the top 4 guys are 47 very high to 48 very low and Jacob is 48 very high.
come bell lap, with everyone doing similar work, Jacob is at least 1.5 seconds better than the field still.
Hocker without injury and Goose stand to close the gap, and have a great shot provided Jacob wastes energy.
Laros 3000 is coming along nicely, for a very young fellow, with 800 talent. no panic there, but he's not got the aerobic to make his mark in a 326 1500 race presently.
Laros with a speculative 142 800, factors in very differently however, where he has a second or two advantage anaerobically, and that figures as a threat with the big 4. combined with a solid 3k, the guys he's in the midst of are 736 ish. which is pretty fine for a speed guy, though not sure really how fast Laros is.
It seems you are trying to look very smart. That comparison was made figuratively. 22nd was chosen to use only the number 2. However, no one mentioned a difference in time, I was referring to the overall quality of the runners and I stand by that. By the way all the other 21 together on any list is a question of whether they have won as much as Jakob alone has.
You can dress it up however you want it’s just wrong. There’re a decent chunk of guys running 3:30-3:32 but that’s more than 2s and often more than 3s behind the trio who beat Jakob. And that trio is at most 1.5s off if you generously say he’s in 3:26.1s shape.
I think it’s a little more nuanced than this. Yes, Jakob on paper is only about 1.5 seconds faster (actually only 0.9 seconds faster than Hocker) than the other three but that’s only when he frontruns in a specific manner suited to their abilities. Every race that Jakob has ran his PB in (or a fast time), it is always in a progression that involves running the middle 800m close to 1:50 flat. Monaco 1500m splits: 55.8, 55.4, 55.2, 40.4. That middle segment put Nuguse and Cheruiyot above their threshold that their final 300m was compromised. They closed in 41.3 and 41.4 respectively. We similarly saw this in Lausanne where Jakob beat Hocker two weeks after the Olympic final. A middle 800m segment of 1:51 put Hocker above his threshold and severely compromised his final 300m speed, his final 300m was 42.2. Jakob severely miscalculated this strategy by going out in 54.8 and then only running the next 800m in around 1:52.2. Hocker who stayed behind on the first lap, had the perfect day and perfect draft to unleash his kick. Ingebrigtsen’s dream splits in Paris probably would have been the reverse order, 56.5, 55.8, and 54.82. Hocker would be forced to follow and his kick would just not be there. Jakob could probably still gut out a 40.xx final 300m and win the race in this manner, but we’ll never know. Anyways, that would make his gap in my opinion be around 2-2.5 seconds as shown in Monaco.
This post was edited 49 seconds after it was posted.
Jakob is unbeatable in every type of 3,000-5,000m race unpaced, paced etc.
Jakob is pretty much unbeatable in a paced 1500 or one vs. all but the top 5 guys in the world
Jakob is beatable by at least one and sometime a few more of the top 5 guys in the world in an unpaced race based on his preferred tactics of taking the pace for at least half of the race
Yeah I think that's pretty damn accurate. The only one we don't quite know about is the first one - how would he fare in a WL paced 5000m that chugging along at 12.38 pace but based on a number of things it's fair to hypothesize he'd be just okay.
With respect to the difference between Jakob and 2nd in the world being far greater than 2nd and 22nd, that post you responded to is sadly ridiculous.
Anyone of Hocker, Nuguse, Kerr are far, far closer to Jakob than those trio are to Frederico Riva who is the worlds 22nd ranked 1500m runner (or even Robert Farken if you wanted to base it on time). For reference the 22nd best time in the world last year was 3.32.20 - I don't need to do the math.
Hocker was 16th the year before he was olympic champ. So, who knows.
Almgren is a 12:50 5000 runner and the fastest European in history in the 10k. The only people I would have as a lock ahead of him to make the finals over him are the Africans, Jakob and Fisher.
You put him in a position above Lobalu who beat him at European Champs for gold? Lobalu even finished a whisker out of a 5K medal in Paris, he is just plain better IMO.
My point is not to disrespect Almgren, but just to note there are a lot of guys in the 12:50 range and there are even more competitive in a frantic heat like Heymans, Blanks and so on. Jakob stands well above these guys and is a great 5,000m runner in all situations. The knock on him is merely in unpaced 1500s against the best of the very best.
And I argue that this is a moot point given that he have so many championship medals. I think one of the reasons this point gets made is because of a what I think is a disregard or blindspot of the euros. Even though the field yesterday had 4 runners from the 1500 olympic final it is threated like some club meet.
I think a second reason is that silver medals/podium placements is also disregarded. If someone wins by 0.01 seconds they are a great championship runner but the one 0.01 seconds behind is not?
This post was edited 3 minutes after it was posted.
It seems you are trying to look very smart. That comparison was made figuratively. 22nd was chosen to use only the number 2. However, no one mentioned a difference in time, I was referring to the overall quality of the runners and I stand by that. By the way all the other 21 together on any list is a question of whether they have won as much as Jakob alone has.
Trying to "look" smart? - come up with better "figurative" comparisons that don't make yourself look stupid.
Yeah I think that's pretty damn accurate. The only one we don't quite know about is the first one - how would he fare in a WL paced 5000m that chugging along at 12.38 pace but based on a number of things it's fair to hypothesize he'd be just okay.
With respect to the difference between Jakob and 2nd in the world being far greater than 2nd and 22nd, that post you responded to is sadly ridiculous.
Anyone of Hocker, Nuguse, Kerr are far, far closer to Jakob than those trio are to Frederico Riva who is the worlds 22nd ranked 1500m runner (or even Robert Farken if you wanted to base it on time). For reference the 22nd best time in the world last year was 3.32.20 - I don't need to do the math.
Just back from LA after watching THE key meet of the weekend, the D3 Oxy Distance Carnival….jk.
Trying to catch up. Listening to the Friday podcast with with Robert and Weldon going on about what it would mean if Laros beat Jakob in the 3000 today. Wtf!!! Was that meant to be serious? Ill or not, what on earth would lease anybody to believe Laros was primed to beat Jakob. The Jakob who just ran 3:45 in his “weak” event. The Laros who is 12 seconds slower than Jakob at 3000??? I have a similarly insightful thought…..if Jakob runs 3:24 at worlds, it’s going to be bad news for Cole Hocker.
They didn't say that. Nobody thinks Jakob is going to run 3:24 at World's. What they said was, even if Jakob runs a 3:24 before worlds, in a rabitted race, he won't be their favorite going in to World's, assuming Hocker/Kerr are in good shape as well.
It's not Jakob's fault that many of his roughly 16 European titles have been against inferior competition even in an era when European middle distance runners are competitive on the global stage. Kerr, Wightman, and many other strong European runners have had the option to run Euros during Jakob's whole career, but they almost always skip them, indoors and even out, as well as xc.
Some of that is because they know they have to be at their absolute best shape in order to have any chance of winning, and it's just not worth it to them at this time of year. It's the Jakob effect, he scares some of the competition away, no doubt.
This.
For example Kerr would need to be in his very best fitness to seriously contend for the gold and it would be mentally tough to go to the champs and lose to Jakob.
You can dress it up however you want it’s just wrong. There’re a decent chunk of guys running 3:30-3:32 but that’s more than 2s and often more than 3s behind the trio who beat Jakob. And that trio is at most 1.5s off if you generously say he’s in 3:26.1s shape.
I think it’s a little more nuanced than this. Yes, Jakob on paper is only about 1.5 seconds faster (actually only 0.9 seconds faster than Hocker) than the other three but that’s only when he frontruns in a specific manner suited to their abilities. Every race that Jakob has ran his PB in (or a fast time), it is always in a progression that involves running the middle 800m close to 1:50 flat. Monaco 1500m splits: 55.8, 55.4, 55.2, 40.4. That middle segment put Nuguse and Cheruiyot above their threshold that their final 300m was compromised. They closed in 41.3 and 41.4 respectively. We similarly saw this in Lausanne where Jakob beat Hocker two weeks after the Olympic final. A middle 800m segment of 1:51 put Hocker above his threshold and severely compromised his final 300m speed, his final 300m was 42.2. Jakob severely miscalculated this strategy by going out in 54.8 and then only running the next 800m in around 1:52.2. Hocker who stayed behind on the first lap, had the perfect day and perfect draft to unleash his kick. Ingebrigtsen’s dream splits in Paris probably would have been the reverse order, 56.5, 55.8, and 54.82. Hocker would be forced to follow and his kick would just not be there. Jakob could probably still gut out a 40.xx final 300m and win the race in this manner, but we’ll never know. Anyways, that would make his gap in my opinion be around 2-2.5 seconds as shown in Monaco.
I kinda like this theory a lot. The problem is, much to the dismay of Jakob fans (myself included), this strategy is rather difficult to pull off without a pacer and wavelights, as evident from Paris. And even if Jakob is able execute the first 1200 perfectly, he's wasting more energy front-running and blocking the wind, so it might not be enough and he could still get outkicked.
But, I agree with you that he has to wind it up, that's his main path the victory. I still think his best shot is to let someone else lead it for at least 400-600 and take it out with about 1000 to go. In Eugene he kept getting challenged by the Kenyans and didn't execute well, trying to fend off (maybe let them lead if they want to?). In Budapest, I think he did the right thing by taking over after 400, but he ran a 58 second 400, for about 1:54, which didn't do enough damage to Kerr. I do believe that if he wasn't sick, he could probably win on that day, because he wouldn't run a 58.
I still think he can win in Tokyo, but it's going to be hard to pull off. The field definitely has the odds to beat him. Also, judging by his latest interview with The Telegraph, it seems like he's still pretty stubborn on leading it from the gun, or so he says, at least. Hopefully Henrik talks him out of it.
It seems you are trying to look very smart. That comparison was made figuratively. 22nd was chosen to use only the number 2. However, no one mentioned a difference in time, I was referring to the overall quality of the runners and I stand by that. By the way all the other 21 together on any list is a question of whether they have won as much as Jakob alone has.
Trying to "look" smart? - come up with better "figurative" comparisons that don't make yourself look stupid.
Thanks for the "compliment"! Jakob alone still has achieved more than next 21 all together. Your math with seconds and fractions doesn't change that!
And I argue that this is a moot point given that he have so many championship medals. I think one of the reasons this point gets made is because of a what I think is a disregard or blindspot of the euros. Even though the field yesterday had 4 runners from the 1500 olympic final it is threated like some club meet.
I think a second reason is that silver medals/podium placements is also disregarded. If someone wins by 0.01 seconds they are a great championship runner but the one 0.01 seconds behind is not?
I think we just have to be honest about the competition. It's not a "club meet," but outside of Jakob it is frequently guys who would top out at making a final in the 1500 or 5000. Laros could've bucked that obviously although he of course ran an off distance and was a shell of himself due to the flu. But then we are looking at George Mills, Habz, Nader, Nillesen, and typically athletes at that level. It is not Jakob's fault remotely that Kerr skips the meet or that Wightman did the 800 in 2022. He beats all-comers and that's commendable. But to say Jakob's European Championships success has much relevance to the challenge of a global final, I don't agree with that. It's apples and oranges. His tactics and strengths are good enough to beat the guys in a European Championship 1500 who are some 3-4 seconds slower than him typically. It is a huge testament to Jakob that he simply rarely has an off day where these guys could beat him and in the 3000-5000 he faces slightly tougher competition at the Euro level and wins nonetheless. But it doesn't and won't translate to him having the 1500 figured out at the global level. Only improved fitness and better executed tactics will make the difference there.
JI is the goat. It's impossible to win every 1500, and he's unbeatable at 3/5K, and I'm guessing that becomes 10K soon.
Morcelli is spoken so highly here, and he didn't win every 1500 either, that's impossible.
I don't know if Morceli is spoken so highly of here, but he won '91, '93, '95 and '96 while losing '92. Jakob is 1 of 4 when favorite/co-favorite at 1500, so this is a faulty comparison though of course two silvers there. Morceli also was a ridiculous kicker, who you might criticize for choking in '92 and giving up in '97 but otherwise seemingly had no holes in his championship record.
El Guerrouj is different as he won in '97, '99, '01, '03 and '04 while falling in '96 and the shock silver in '00. That's 4/6. El Guerrouj had some luck/help as in '99 he had a pacemaker, and in '01 drama between Noah Ngeny and Athletics Kenya kept a top competitor out. Then in '03 his top rival Bernard Lagat was kept out to due a positive A sample. So, that's fair context.
Jakob seems like a more prolific version of Tim Cheruiyot (at 1500, obviously his 5000m running is a different beast) who in his prime of 2017-2021 went silver-gold silver and was probably robbed of a gold in 2020 and a probably silver/gold in 2018. But he also had some weaknesses in his game and didn't have pacing help/luck with absences of his competition.
This post was edited 50 seconds after it was posted.
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