I think Mercer Island will be heard on Saturday. Either Owen Powell produces a top 5 finish or Rodriguez (who is peaking at the right time).
The women have some very good front runners who will separate early. Blade, Hedengren and Ferebee all like to go out strong. At 2K I expect a group of 3 or 4 in front.
There was an upset last year because the 3 favorites ran dumb races.
Like I said "The only way that one of the 2 - 10 girls can win NXN this year is if Hedengren has a bad day. If Hedengren runs as well as she's capable of running, all the other girls are running for second place."
If Hedengren runs a dumb race then she can be beaten. That's the only way the other girls have a shot.
What if Hedengren runs her best race, and Ferebee or one of the other unknowns in top 10 is still with her at the finish and beats her?
Generally all these kids are somewhat known quantities, but this year there are several little known, much improved unbeatens. It may not require a terrible race from Jane for someone to step up.
For me that makes this year quite compelling. I also have 0 issue if Hedengren just runs away at the front. She is a great runner and well deserving.
The women have some very good front runners who will separate early. Blade, Hedengren and Ferebee all like to go out strong. At 2K I expect a group of 3 or 4 in front.
Yes, the top girls will split into 2 groups. One group will be aggressive and go out fast. The second group will be more cautious and start a little slower because of what happened to the front runners at NXN last year.
It will be interesting in the last mile to see which of the slower starting girls can kick and pass the faster starting girls.
I think that Leachman, the fastest starting but slowest finishing girl from last year, will be one of the slower starters. Based on how Leachman ran Foot Locker last year she's seems to have learned that you can do really well even if you aren't in front early in the race. Look for Leachman to run much smarter this year and pass a lot of girls in the last mile.
You are confused. I was pointing out how good this girl is. She set the Iowa state meet record. She is the best ever high schooler from Iowa. She is better than Noe, Schweizer, Houlihan, amd every other runner from the state. Most posters would assume that setting the Iowa record was meaningless until they see that many of thebest all-time Americans are from Iowa.
Completely agree with this analysis. If Hendegren goes out fast and tries to time trial it, the top girls will have to decide to go with or hold back, which will likely result in a top group of 3-4 and then a chase pack of 3-4 who are running more conservatively. It will be hard to determine what group is the better one to be in. If you cast aside the unbelievably fast speed rating from NXR Southwest, then the top 10 speed ratings are so close it is almost inconsequential. The simple details of how much it actually rains before the race could end up deciding this.
She beat her state record. That's just a fact. Facts aren't stupid.
Pretty much all of the top 10 ladies have their state course record. Some even have the NXR course records. Hedengren, Leachman, Engelhardt and Garces have their region records, maybe some others.
Yes, and yet the infamous ‘Speed Ratings” have not kept pace with historical precedent, particularly on the female side. Any ideas why that might be the case.
Yes, and yet the infamous ‘Speed Ratings” have not kept pace with historical precedent, particularly on the female side. Any ideas why that might be the case.
Yes they have. SR's measure your performance from the mid pack. If everyone gets better the baseline increases (like it should because over time people are always getting better).
If all you care about is time, then fine - thats a fair argument. But then you also believe that Cooper teare is a better miler than Jim Ryun and that Ky Robinson would have smoked Steve Prefontaine by 20 seconds.
Completely agree with this analysis. If Hendegren goes out fast and tries to time trial it, the top girls will have to decide to go with or hold back, which will likely result in a top group of 3-4 and then a chase pack of 3-4 who are running more conservatively. It will be hard to determine what group is the better one to be in. If you cast aside the unbelievably fast speed rating from NXR Southwest, then the top 10 speed ratings are so close it is almost inconsequential.
The simple details of how much it actually rains before the race could end up deciding this.
Right now the forecast I'm seeing says that at 10am tomorrow, which is when the girls race starts, it will be 45 degrees and raining DURING the race.
The ground probably won't be as muddy as last year, but last year the rain stopped before the race started. If it does rain during the race like the forecast is predicting, those girls are going to get very cold very quickly.
Some of the top girls are from states where they have experience training in cold rainy conditions. Girls from other states like California and Texas aren't used to that. It will be interesting to see how the warm weather girls deal with being soaked on a cold day.
Is there a rule that says you aren't allowed to wear a waterproof jacket underneath your singlet?
Yes, and yet the infamous ‘Speed Ratings” have not kept pace with historical precedent, particularly on the female side. Any ideas why that might be the case.
Yes they have. SR's measure your performance from the mid pack. If everyone gets better the baseline increases (like it should because over time people are always getting better).
If all you care about is time, then fine - thats a fair argument. But then you also believe that Cooper teare is a better miler than Jim Ryun and that Ky Robinson would have smoked Steve Prefontaine by 20 seconds.
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