So you are telling me that all he needs to run so far to be the “best in the world” is an Oregon relays 800, Pre Mile, and the UK champs 800m where he fell, and he is somehow the best 1500m runner in the world?
Kerr was running at a very high level early in 2024. And opened up hot in Eugene. Maybe this is not the best for him & OG chances...that's a long time to hold top form.
Conversely, maybe Jakob's injury was a blessing in disguise, ensuring he will peak at the right time.
800m is not really Kerr’s distance - how many 800m has Jakob done recently so we can compare? And he was tripped in the finishing straight. He didn’t look like he was doing too badly…
Jakob runs good times in paced DL meets. We will have to see how he runs without pacemakers. Then Kerr’s predicted 3.27 from you (800m performance doesn’t change the mile performance) and Jakob’s paced DL 3.26.73 performance don’t seem to far off each other? Who can pace better? Who will be better down the home straight?
I think Kerr could have run high 3:27 converted in the Bowerman Mile if he hasn´t done the frontrunning after the pacemakers dropped out. But doing that - as Jakob almost always do when he runs his fast times - makes his Bowerman Mile worth only about 3:28.65. So Jakob is almost 2 seconds faster than Kerr run in paced races under equal conditions.
Do you agree that Kerr´s only chance to win over an in peak shape Jakob in Paris is if Jakob front run for most of the race so the difference between their PBs gets eliminated?
Yes I do agree it will need to be a tactical race for Kerr to win. Jakob will need to front run and Kerr will need to have more strength down the home straight. Nobody is suggesting that Jakob isn’t the favourite or doesn’t have the faster time. But as we have seen, in tactical races, upsets happen. And that’s great racing.
Kerr is the defending champion but prior to that I don't think he had ever beaten Jakob in a race. And for a guy who doesn't race often he was beaten by Jakob 10+ times at that point that's YEARS of losing. People are on here saying he's a tactical genius as if he's been great for a long time. Prior to earning that bronze medal no one would have been majorly surprised if he didn't even make the 1500m final. I think there's something to be said for trash talking and how it can be positive for the sport but winning one race did not warrant the amount of talk coming from him. Wait your turn. Jakob was a medal threat as a teenager and he's been highly ranked for a long time. He's never trashed anyone in the media prior to this if I'm not mistaken.
Yes it’s completely true - Kerr has improved dramatically over the last 2 years. He’s lost weight, dialled in his nutrition, got his training right. We are seeing a different Kerr now to a few years ago. I used to not like the guy - his arrogance didn’t match his performances. But he’s a different level now. (Still arrogant though!).
He won the World Indoor 3000m in dominant fashion against Yared Nuguse and the Prefontaine Mile over Jakob in 3:45. I would like to see him race more but he knows that the Olympics are a legacy-defining event, so he is minimizing training disruptions to win another gold. It certainly worked for him last year at World's.
I disagree in your last sentence. -I was not impressed with Kerr’s win in WC 2023. In my view it was very alike his bronze race in Tokyo. (Also time wise -slightly worse). The most significant difference was the shift in opposition: Jakob was not as good, Cheruiyot absent, Wightman, Hoare and Katir the same, Nuguse sick.
Kerr was much better in the indoors / Bowerman mile. Here he clearly showed 3.27 potential. But I think he gambles (both with his reputation but also his shape) by throwing everything into one single race. What if he falls? Or has a bad day or luck..? OK -there will be some opportunities post OG, but the shape might have faltered… Maybe he knows what he does, but missed opportunities (Monaco) may be missed opportunities for a long time if he runs out of luck… I would say this about all athletes -if one don’t take what’s offered one might regret when everything is said and done…
Yes, and that was important. Imagine if he hadn’t been there -no real win against Jakob, no British record, no impressing way of winning a fast mile race… Participating is important! I get it that he wants to peak for one important race, but I think he has become so good (been in good shape the whole winter and spring / early summer) that he could go for a more average / normal preparation / participation..!
Drafting is what cost Ing the last victory vs Kerr I really think. I just think he's in better shape and will be smarter this time. He needs to pick up the pace more then he did halfway through and burn the sting out of Kerr's kick.
To answer your question though I don't think there is one way either can win cause they are both in such amazing shape now and especially Ing
Jakob lost to Kerr in Budapest mainly because he was around 1.5 sec from peak shape. He ran 3:27.14 in DL Silesia and 3:29.65 in the WC final. That is a difference on 2.5 sec but if we factor in that he ran about 500m longer in front in Budapest losing about 1 sec on that account we get 1.5 sec from peak shape.
So you are telling me that all he needs to run so far to be the “best in the world” is an Oregon relays 800, Pre Mile, and the UK champs 800m where he fell, and he is somehow the best 1500m runner in the world?
The one above has to be one of the worst takes ever. While you are talking about the 1500, it can't be forgot he has run a 2-mile WR this year and also DOMINATD the 3000 at world indoors.
But for the 1500:
1) He is the defending world champ.
2) He showed up in the biggest mile fo the year and kicked everyone's ass at Pre.
3) He's going to the Olympics. If he wins that, he's clearly the #1 1500 guy in the world.
Here is another HORRIBLE take:
Kerr Hater wrote: He has a spotty track record in world and olympic finals and even moreso in regular season races
Kerr has literally run his seasonal best time at the global championships in each of the last 4 championships 2019, 2021, 2022 and 2023. The guys track record in global finals is near perfect.
Do I wish he'd race a little more? Sure. Not doing the DL finale is a joke but he's gonna have at least 4 big races this year.
Millrose, World Indoors, Pre and Olymipcs. There's your Grand Slam track right there.
I think Kerr could have run high 3:27 converted in the Bowerman Mile if he hasn´t done the frontrunning after the pacemakers dropped out. But doing that - as Jakob almost always do when he runs his fast times - makes his Bowerman Mile worth only about 3:28.65. So Jakob is almost 2 seconds faster than Kerr run in paced races under equal conditions.
Do you agree that Kerr´s only chance to win over an in peak shape Jakob in Paris is if Jakob front run for most of the race so the difference between their PBs gets eliminated?
Yes I do agree it will need to be a tactical race for Kerr to win. Jakob will need to front run and Kerr will need to have more strength down the home straight. Nobody is suggesting that Jakob isn’t the favourite or doesn’t have the faster time. But as we have seen, in tactical races, upsets happen. And that’s great racing.
Well, here's what we do know.
1. Jakob WILL front run. He would be leaving way too much to chance if he doesn't. The final needs to be a 3:29 or better for him to maximize his medal chances. No one else will take it out so he will have to do it.
2. Josh has closed his PB gap to Jakob, even as Jakob has gotten faster.
3. Most of the time, front runners in a 1500 final have gotten run down. It has happened to Jakob twice already and in years which he was even faster than the field.
4. Kerr seems to have mastered peaking. Since 2019, Josh has run his best time of the season in the championship final.
5. We don't have an indication that Jakob can outkick Kerr over the last 200. Even in Tokyo, Kerr was already able to hold the gap to him and almost caught Tim.
Conclusion - if Kerr can latch on to Jakob without breaking his tempo, I don't see how he's not favored to win.
So you are telling me that all he needs to run so far to be the “best in the world” is an Oregon relays 800, Pre Mile, and the UK champs 800m where he fell, and he is somehow the best 1500m runner in the world?
The one above has to be one of the worst takes ever. While you are talking about the 1500, it can't be forgot he has run a 2-mile WR this year and also DOMINATD the 3000 at world indoors.
But for the 1500:
1) He is the defending world champ.
2) He showed up in the biggest mile fo the year and kicked everyone's ass at Pre.
3) He's going to the Olympics. If he wins that, he's clearly the #1 1500 guy in the world.
Here is another HORRIBLE take:
Kerr Hater wrote: He has a spotty track record in world and olympic finals and even moreso in regular season races
Kerr has literally run his seasonal best time at the global championships in each of the last 4 championships 2019, 2021, 2022 and 2023. The guys track record in global finals is near perfect.
Do I wish he'd race a little more? Sure. Not doing the DL finale is a joke but he's gonna have at least 4 big races this year.
Millrose, World Indoors, Pre and Olymipcs. There's your Grand Slam track right there.
Me thinks someone is getting on the Kerr train! Welcome!
Yes I do agree it will need to be a tactical race for Kerr to win. Jakob will need to front run and Kerr will need to have more strength down the home straight. Nobody is suggesting that Jakob isn’t the favourite or doesn’t have the faster time. But as we have seen, in tactical races, upsets happen. And that’s great racing.
Well, here's what we do know.
1. Jakob WILL front run. He would be leaving way too much to chance if he doesn't. The final needs to be a 3:29 or better for him to maximize his medal chances. No one else will take it out so he will have to do it.
2. Josh has closed his PB gap to Jakob, even as Jakob has gotten faster.
3. Most of the time, front runners in a 1500 final have gotten run down. It has happened to Jakob twice already and in years which he was even faster than the field.
4. Kerr seems to have mastered peaking. Since 2019, Josh has run his best time of the season in the championship final.
5. We don't have an indication that Jakob can outkick Kerr over the last 200. Even in Tokyo, Kerr was already able to hold the gap to him and almost caught Tim.
Conclusion - if Kerr can latch on to Jakob without breaking his tempo, I don't see how he's not favored to win.
Btw, this is going to get downvotes, but IMO a race slower than 3:29 is going to play into Hocker's hands. He will start conservatively and efficiently move up. If the pace is not fast enough I think he can pull a Wightman if he's trailing the leader by 2-3 seconds. I believe he can drop a faster last 400 in a slower race with exception of Kessler who probably won't run a clean enough race to be in contention for a medal.
The Olympics are earlier in the season this year than previous cycles. I think he will show up sharp and ready to go.
If he wins, his post Olympics pay checks will be HUGE. Other have done this in the past, run the Olympics on a light season of racing and then cram in 5-6 big meets afterwards for larger money!
So you are telling me that all he needs to run so far to be the “best in the world” is an Oregon relays 800, Pre Mile, and the UK champs 800m where he fell, and he is somehow the best 1500m runner in the world?
The one above has to be one of the worst takes ever. While you are talking about the 1500, it can't be forgot he has run a 2-mile WR this year and also DOMINATD the 3000 at world indoors.
But for the 1500:
1) He is the defending world champ.
2) He showed up in the biggest mile fo the year and kicked everyone's ass at Pre.
3) He's going to the Olympics. If he wins that, he's clearly the #1 1500 guy in the world.
Here is another HORRIBLE take:
Kerr Hater wrote: He has a spotty track record in world and olympic finals and even moreso in regular season races
Kerr has literally run his seasonal best time at the global championships in each of the last 4 championships 2019, 2021, 2022 and 2023. The guys track record in global finals is near perfect.
Do I wish he'd race a little more? Sure. Not doing the DL finale is a joke but he's gonna have at least 4 big races this year.
Millrose, World Indoors, Pre and Olymipcs. There's your Grand Slam track right there.
6th 3rd 5th and finally 1st. Near perfect yet he has failed to get top 2 until last year. I also already conceded in this thread that if he won the olympics I would call him the best in the world. His 2 mile was paced for 90%, without Fisher he would have certainly run multiple seconds less. He did not dominate the 3k either, dominating is pushing the pace not running a fast final lap to pass the leader in the final 100. Pre was not the biggest event of the year despite what you americans like to say or hype on about. It was a good win yet he has been nowhere to be seen the last 2 months? The best event of the year so far for the 1500 was easily Monaco by a landslide. 3:26.73, 3:28.71, 3:28.80 and 3:29.1 for the top 4.
Listen, I am fine with his schedule, it’s his own plan and he can do as he pleases. But to continually say “i am the best 1500m runner in the world” and say other things that bring down his competitors are laughable at best.
World Indoors and Millrose are also only equivalent to a diamond league as well in terms of competition, don’t get started on that grand slam BS.
The one above has to be one of the worst takes ever. While you are talking about the 1500, it can't be forgot he has run a 2-mile WR this year and also DOMINATD the 3000 at world indoors.
But for the 1500:
1) He is the defending world champ.
2) He showed up in the biggest mile fo the year and kicked everyone's ass at Pre.
3) He's going to the Olympics. If he wins that, he's clearly the #1 1500 guy in the world.
Here is another HORRIBLE take:
Kerr Hater wrote: He has a spotty track record in world and olympic finals and even moreso in regular season races
Kerr has literally run his seasonal best time at the global championships in each of the last 4 championships 2019, 2021, 2022 and 2023. The guys track record in global finals is near perfect.
Do I wish he'd race a little more? Sure. Not doing the DL finale is a joke but he's gonna have at least 4 big races this year.
Millrose, World Indoors, Pre and Olymipcs. There's your Grand Slam track right there.
6th 3rd 5th and finally 1st. Near perfect yet he has failed to get top 2 until last year. I also already conceded in this thread that if he won the olympics I would call him the best in the world. His 2 mile was paced for 90%, without Fisher he would have certainly run multiple seconds less. He did not dominate the 3k either, dominating is pushing the pace not running a fast final lap to pass the leader in the final 100. Pre was not the biggest event of the year despite what you americans like to say or hype on about. It was a good win yet he has been nowhere to be seen the last 2 months? The best event of the year so far for the 1500 was easily Monaco by a landslide. 3:26.73, 3:28.71, 3:28.80 and 3:29.1 for the top 4.
Listen, I am fine with his schedule, it’s his own plan and he can do as he pleases. But to continually say “i am the best 1500m runner in the world” and say other things that bring down his competitors are laughable at best.
World Indoors and Millrose are also only equivalent to a diamond league as well in terms of competition, don’t get started on that grand slam BS.
Jakob femboys have had no problem with Jakob consistently undermining his competition and making excuses when he loses, yet when the world champ who has since not lost to Jakob asserts his confidence publicly you get salty. Kerr is the best until someone beats him in a global championship. He's allowed to trash talk. He earned it.
6th 3rd 5th and finally 1st. Near perfect yet he has failed to get top 2 until last year. I also already conceded in this thread that if he won the olympics I would call him the best in the world. His 2 mile was paced for 90%, without Fisher he would have certainly run multiple seconds less. He did not dominate the 3k either, dominating is pushing the pace not running a fast final lap to pass the leader in the final 100. Pre was not the biggest event of the year despite what you americans like to say or hype on about. It was a good win yet he has been nowhere to be seen the last 2 months? The best event of the year so far for the 1500 was easily Monaco by a landslide. 3:26.73, 3:28.71, 3:28.80 and 3:29.1 for the top 4.
Listen, I am fine with his schedule, it’s his own plan and he can do as he pleases. But to continually say “i am the best 1500m runner in the world” and say other things that bring down his competitors are laughable at best.
World Indoors and Millrose are also only equivalent to a diamond league as well in terms of competition, don’t get started on that grand slam BS.
Jakob femboys have had no problem with Jakob consistently undermining his competition and making excuses when he loses, yet when the world champ who has since not lost to Jakob asserts his confidence publicly you get salty. Kerr is the best until someone beats him in a global championship. He's allowed to trash talk. He earned it.
“My favorite thing about winning, is everyone else losing”
Cite one thing that Jakob has said that comes anywhere close to this, you can’t, because it doesn’t exist. Kerr is NOT the best until someone beats him in a championship. That is not how this sport works, you are the only one who thinks that, and I have already refuted you on this already and somehow you keep bringing things back to Jakob when I have barely even mentioned him in my main argument. Do you love Jakob or something, do you want to do stuff with him?
Jakob femboys have had no problem with Jakob consistently undermining his competition and making excuses when he loses, yet when the world champ who has since not lost to Jakob asserts his confidence publicly you get salty. Kerr is the best until someone beats him in a global championship. He's allowed to trash talk. He earned it.
“My favorite thing about winning, is everyone else losing”
Cite one thing that Jakob has said that comes anywhere close to this, you can’t, because it doesn’t exist. Kerr is NOT the best until someone beats him in a championship. That is not how this sport works, you are the only one who thinks that, and I have already refuted you on this already and somehow you keep bringing things back to Jakob when I have barely even mentioned him in my main argument. Do you love Jakob or something, do you want to do stuff with him?
That is precisely how this sport works. It's the WC and Olympics in the history books. The world only cares about track during those events. WRs are also amazing, but they get taken down over time. Jakob is the ultimate Diamond League king I'll give him that, but that just means he's the best when there are pacers and lights to follow. Kerr can trash talk all he wants until someone takes him down when it counts.
Help us build the best running shoe review site for a chance to win a LetsRun t-shirt.Help us build the best running shoe review site for a chance to win one of 10 LetsRun t-shirts.