I looked over WA rankings, to remind myself who the contenders are (it's hard to mentally keep track of them all), and it looks tougher than I had in mind.
For one thing, I totally forgot that Markezich had just run 9:17 at NCAAs. That's rough.
I think Allie's probably better than Howard and Jolly.
But you have to think Constien, and Wayment, and Markezich (with that race last week) are probably well ahead of her.
Probably Mitchell, too.
Gear had that great 15 earlier in the spring, but hasn't looked all that great since then, and hasn't had a very impressive steeple race. Allie's probably got a shot to beat her.
Boreman I think she might get.
So I'm thinking there's two way ahead of her; two more probably substantially ahead;
and maybe two more that are probably in the same ballpark.
Let's say she ran a 9:18 (a big leap, but it seems plausible).
That probably won't catch the first two, has a decent shot to beat the last two (unless Gear shows something way closer to what she did last year), and might get close to the middle two.
(Is there anybody I'm forgetting?)
I'm pulling hard for her, and she's clearly on a great trajectory right now, but it's a long shot.
She'd have to pop a great performance, and probably hope that 2 or 3 of those gals don't have a very good day.
Fourth to 7th or so is probably a good shot; top three is gonna be tough.
What do you guys think?
I've been following the list, looking at the US race results all along, and lightly disagree. Already posted my thoughts under a different name/device (the 9:19 equiv counting 1/2 her curves were run in lane 2). I don't think even the top two are out of reach in front. 3 seconds at this point in the season to Markevich isn't definitive. I mean Markevich jumped 17 seconds seasonally in one race. I think Allie has a reasonable expectation of mid-teens in a few weeks tapered, cleaning up technique and knowing she can put herself in the mix. It'd be a hard task for Constien or Wayment to try to lead and run away from the field—we all know the risks of that unless you are truly much fitter than the rest of the filed. At 9:14 so far, I don't think that shows that gap. If one of them shows up in much better shape, sure, but we'll have to wait and see. A half dozen including Allie will be in the mix for top 3 and we won't know how it turns out until the race happens.
That's super-optimistic, and 9:14's a long way from 9:24, but I hope you turn out right.
I've been following the list, looking at the US race results all along, and lightly disagree. Already posted my thoughts under a different name/device (the 9:19 equiv counting 1/2 her curves were run in lane 2). I don't think even the top two are out of reach in front. 3 seconds at this point in the season to Markevich isn't definitive. I mean Markevich jumped 17 seconds seasonally in one race. I think Allie has a reasonable expectation of mid-teens in a few weeks tapered, cleaning up technique and knowing she can put herself in the mix. It'd be a hard task for Constien or Wayment to try to lead and run away from the field—we all know the risks of that unless you are truly much fitter than the rest of the filed. At 9:14 so far, I don't think that shows that gap. If one of them shows up in much better shape, sure, but we'll have to wait and see. A half dozen including Allie will be in the mix for top 3 and we won't know how it turns out until the race happens.
That's super-optimistic, and 9:14's a long way from 9:24, but I hope you turn out right.
The point is that even though this is the deepest year for US women steeplechase ever.
Historical top 14:
’24 - 9:31 (year not over)
’23- 9:42
’22-9:36
’21-9:37
’19-9:49
’18-9:49
It is the weakest for the top 3 since 2016!!!(year not over)
’24-‘9:17
’23-9:13
’22-9:10
’21-9:16
’19-9:11
’18-9:10
’17-9:15
’16-9:19
…so a lot of people are in the conversation to make the team.
Yes, she served a four month ban. She talks about it on one of her youtube videos. It's over and done with now. I hope that she does well at the Olympic Trials.
No they aren't. They are the same. Both were banned for doping. Two things that are totally different are getting banned for doping as compared to drinking a beer and having the coach not approve.
No they aren't. They are the same. Both were banned for doping. Two things that are totally different are getting banned for doping as compared to drinking a beer and having the coach not approve.
Sorry, I should clarify: the two situations are completely incomparable unless you’re incredibly dense.
Shelby was caught with massive levels of a performance enhancing substance in her system and an absolute nonsensical explanation. She was a top-5 1500m runner in the world at the time and had been rewriting the American record books. She also fought the ban from start to finish and maintains innocence to this day.
Allie was caught with a small amount of a masking agent (not a PED!) that was in a substance documented as having been prescribed by her doctor to handle a documented medical concern. At the time of her ban she hadn’t been competing at a high level for nearly 3 years. She served the ban without complaint and provided explanation for the entire situation from beginning to end.
No they aren't. They are the same. Both were banned for doping. Two things that are totally different are getting banned for doping as compared to drinking a beer and having the coach not approve.
Sorry, I should clarify: the two situations are completely incomparable unless you’re incredibly dense.
Shelby was caught with massive levels of a performance enhancing substance in her system and an absolute nonsensical explanation. She was a top-5 1500m runner in the world at the time and had been rewriting the American record books. She also fought the ban from start to finish and maintains innocence to this day.
Allie was caught with a small amount of a masking agent (not a PED!) that was in a substance documented as having been prescribed by her doctor to handle a documented medical concern. At the time of her ban she hadn’t been competing at a high level for nearly 3 years. She served the ban without complaint and provided explanation for the entire situation from beginning to end.
Yeah, the Shelby apologists who keep trying to make a moral equivalence just need to stop. The two cases were not even close to being the same, which is why the length of suspension was also different.
She didn't announce that she was racing in it her socials. Probably signed up a while ago as a "might feel like racing this" and then decided it didn't fit with her current plan. I imagine this kind of thing happens all the time.
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