Will a sub 1:40 for 800m be broken soon?

I'm old enough to remember when 13:00 and 27:00 were impossible.

no, I'm not saying 1:39.xx is impossible - it will happen, but pls go back to my post to see how I qualified it. My point we are at the very near end of what is possible in a 800m.

To your point about 400m/400H not wanting to try it - should not the glory/fame/money of being the first ever 1:39.xx runner - be enough motivation?

Not necessary to go 43.9 to go sub-1:40. A combo of 45-mid and 3:30 capability might be enough to go 48.7/50.2.

Coe's open 400 PR was 46.87 but on at least two occasions he ran 45.5/45.6 for relay legs (1979 European Cup/1981 Eng vs USA a few days before his 1:41) and demonstrated phenomenal kick on other occasions. Block starts were not his skill but in these relays he beat US national 400m finalists and Olympic 400m relay medalists he was matched up against head to head (e.g. Tozzi of Italy).

Important point... bear in mind that his 400 relay PRs were set during the same seasons he broke mile WRs, not in different seasons with different training. The fact he ran 1:41.73 with nobody remotely close after he blew by Konchellah before 500, and it was an early season run for him, and the race was run very late, partly because of the Lewis fake-WR in the 100, should also be taken into account. He was himself surprised by this result, suggesting he was not maxed out for the season. He later stated his aim for this race was to improve his early season marker with a ~1:43. Maybe as a result of this unexpectedly fast time he did not attempt the 800WR again that season, instead running 15s and miles and the 1k WR. No other 15/mile WR has run remotely as fast as Coe over 400 during the SAME SEASON he set the mid-d times.

Kipketer's 1997 WR run at Zurich was insane and he could have gone absolutely miles faster than 1:41.24 with a more realistic distribution of effort. That first 200 of 22.9/23.0 was ridiculous. Had he run 48.5 off 23-mid/25 even instead of 48.10 off 22.9/23.0 then he would have finished well under 1:41, likely he would still hold the WR. The difference between an even 48.5/6 and a wildly positive split 48.1 for the first lap of an 800 is monumental at this razor-edge level. I thought a WR effort was blown and I was quite surprised that he continued to move as well as he did in the home stretch. Nobody else has ever run that fast through 400 and finished even competently.

The whole uneven pace situation reminded me of Coe's 1981 1500 at Stockholm with that 52.4/1:49.1 opening i.e. a total waste of a supreme athlete in lifetime peak condition to run a monumental time..an opportunity that might never come again for that athlete.

His subsequent 1:41.11WR was run more evenly but I don't think he was quite at the same incredible peak as at Zurich.

Also his 1:42.67 indoor run in March indicated a potential for sub-1:41 that season. The differential for most athletes in this range is much greater than indicated. That time is still the indoor WR and has not been approached remotely. Therefore, it stands as a testament to what Kipketer could do with ideal pacing in his peak season and indicates his outdoor time was sub-optimal.

Kipketer had a fluency and turnover that even Rudisha could not match. I can't believe that Kipketer could not run 44-high at 400 at that time in an optimal race. However his 15 wasn't that great, in the Symmonds 3:34/5 class.

So from an athlete performance indicator pov, maybe ~45.5/3:30 will demonstrate the capacity. In the actual race, 73.5 at 600 is needed with the classic 26.4 close. So 48.5 at 400, even split.

Like a lot of posters above, I don't think anybody racing now is close to being able to do this. 1:42-high last season WL. Amos is the last athlete to break 1:42 and even that run was now five years ago. It was seven years before that for the next previous sub-1:42 mark. IF Amos trained differently and harnessed his 44-high form to a low-3:30 15 then he would be closest but it's too late for that now.

Sub 26 is way more possible than sub 1:40 or those other times. Once we see 12:30 go down we will see sub 26, within this decade too. Let's go back to this thread in 2029.

He's 25 and hasn't broken 1:42, yet you think he will lop off another 2.85 seconds in the next 5 years? Probably troll bait, but yeah, no. Wanyonyi *might* have a chance to go 1:41 high

I know you never competed in a sport. Guy are guys, and with your personality, you would be instantly ostracized from any team. How could you know anything for any sport? Posting bullsh*t on a thread about running, does not make you an expert.

Another thing. The first time I saw a post from you, was when you used your helicopter crash expertise, to post on the Kobe death thread which was over 4 years ago. It was only recently that you acquired your vast knowledge of all things running.

Another thing.

Salvitore’s business partner: “Between us, we know everything. Salvatore knows everything except that he’s an idiot, and I know that.”

F.a.t. sub-47.00 400m men get a full ride in college. Will every D1 or D2 university give a full ride to every f.a.t. 46.99 guy? No but all 46.99 400m men can get a full ride.

Did you read my post? Almost every 800m discussion on here, someone brings up Snell &/or Ryun &/or Dave Wottle and all the mileage they logged. Fast teenage 400m guys who did not participate in youth XC overseas or high school XC in U.S. do not want anything to do with college XC.

Glory, fame and money?!? Most fast 400m guys know the truth. Most fast 400m guys who move up to 800m never break 1:50. Most fast 400m guys are not going to risk shredding their Achilles, 800m training. Most say to themselves: If I move up to 800m, I may not be good and I may ruin my 200m/400m speed, 800m training.

There’s a conspiracy?

No. The 800 as a whole has been a stagnant event for a long, long time. Only outstanding individuals like Kipketer and Rudisha have moved it forward but only at the very, very top. The depth in the event hasn't moved forward for decades. 1:42 is almost never broken. The last athlete to do so, Nigel Amos, was a doper. Even breaking 1:43 is rare. In 1976 Alberto Juantorena won the Olympic 800 in 1:43.50, a then WR. That time would have won last year's WC.

It will not happen during your lifetime, your children’s lifetimes, your grandchildren’s lifetimes and not during the next 5 generations after that.

Oh. My. Goodness. Homie do you need a hug? Did you get someone to distract the nurse so you could hide your meds under the pillow and pretend like you took them? Just sitting in front of a keyboard in an absolute tizz - somehow the Kobe Bryant helicopter crash got bought up(?!?!) Dude if you need help it's out there man, but I don't think messageboards are your thing. Yikes.

You didn’t deny anything I said, but I guess you’re gay?

I bet within 3 years. Then it will be like sub-4.

Is Emmanuel Korir update?

Everyone knowledgeable about track has left LR. Among all the posts on threads about Ingebrigtsen’s races, maybe 1 of 50 make sense.

My advice to the Johnsons, would be to make it all registered users, with zero tolerance for ignorant posts. I am a member of a Red Sox forum, that does just that. The owners of that thread like to say, “If you don’t want to get banned, “Don’t Suck”.

check this out, on a slightly better track and slightly better spikes this is 140.5.

there is bolt with 9.6x and the 2 hour marathon around the corner, and 3 miles at under 4 min miles under the corner. 400m hurdles 45.9.

realize in perfect conditions with a perfect field, that all bets are off on times, when there can be a quantum jump in times.

with beamon, that was fake, altitude and wind. as was flojo

the recent 5000m run in oslo, the whole field ran PRs by 5 to 10 seconds.

you just need a bolt like talent to do it, and with luck not to be injured.

however with the athletes out there since rudisha got hurt, sure there is absolutely zero chance of 139, or 140, and even 141 would be tough right now.

but someone wlll eventually come out of no where.

letsrun guys can try and interview cruz, coe, rudisha, kipkiter, and get their opinion, and ask, "if you had perfect traning and perfect conditions" could you break 140?

the answer will be yes.