At one time many people thought the world was flat. You are placing yourself into the typical LRC "pseudo analytical number cruncher" mindset. The "Natural Linear Progression" bantered on these boards is also part of that.
You can choose to ignore the statistical evidence which suggests Arop will not approach the WR if you like, you have the right, and it is by nature circumstantial. And I likewise will choose to believe that monkeys will fly out of my ass tomorrow. After all, it could happen.
Be sure you get it on TikTok before the ban takes effect!
He also claimed he had "In the first six months of this year, already had run more than 1,240 miles." which despite my respect for the great man, I would have to call absolute bullsh-t on. You ran 206 miles a week for 6 months of any year? 330km a week training for the 1500m? Uggh, that's a no, no you didn't.
Sir, 1,240 miles in six months is 206 miles per month, or less than 50 mpw.
He also claimed he had "In the first six months of this year, already had run more than 1,240 miles." which despite my respect for the great man, I would have to call absolute bullsh-t on. You ran 206 miles a week for 6 months of any year? 330km a week training for the 1500m? Uggh, that's a no, no you didn't.
Sir, 1,240 miles in six months is 206 miles per month, or less than 50 mpw.
was waiting for this post! surprised by all the upvotes he got for that one.
They’re pretty comparable and there’s no current trend that makes it seem like such times are going to be run anytime soon, and especially so in the 800m.
I agree that the 1.40 @800m will take a while to break(don´t see anyone who is capable for that yet).
At the 1500m however I do think we will se it happen in a pretty narrow future. Who will it be? Ingebrigtsen, Kerr, Nuguse, Hoare, Kessler, Wightman?
3:24.99 is, in my opinion, a harder time to break compare to 1:39.99, but there are (today) more runners closer breaking sub 3.25.
I think that only the first 3 mentioned are relevant and of them Jakob is possibly the most likely.
Hoare and Wightman should be happy if the could run 3:29 again.
Kessler - who has just turned 21 - is almost 4 seconds AND an Olympic gold medal away from Jakob.
I would consider Reynold, Laros and Myers as the most likely young runners to go below 3:26.
There weren't really a lot of chances for 1:42 guys to chase peak Rudisha, that's why he was always winning by 20+ meters
Look at the start lists in the 2010-2012 Diamond Leagues when he was running 1:41 lows. There's Abubaker Kaki, Alfred Yego a few years past his prime, Bosse a few years before his prime, and a bunch of guys with 1:43 high-1:43 low PBs.
A lot of folks here are mentioning Coe and Rudisha but ignoring Kipketer.
Kipketer's 1:41.11 is only .2 off of Rudisha's WR. Those two were just over ten years apart to cross paths but I imagine if they could've raced each other we'd be closer to 1:40 low WR.
BTW, there is a such thing as an 800 meter specialist. Not everyone should be classified as a 400/800 guy or an 800/1500 guy. Rudisha's was a low 45 400 guy which is plenty fast but not as fast as Amos or Korir. Coe owned 800 & 1500 WR at one point (so did Ryun!). ...But Rudisha was an 800 specialist (ok, he was exceptional at 600 also but not really a common event!)
I disagree! I have already several years ago predicted that Jakob not only will break the current WR but that also will go sub 3:25. Probably not in 1 long jump (even though El-G did that) but successively over the next years. 2025, 2026 and 2027 - with only 1 international championship per year - should be good years for WR attacks.
We possibly disagree because you assume Jakob´s potential in the 1500m is limited where I think he can improve his aerobic capacity for many years to come which will be sufficient to break the 1500m WR several times. Most posters possibly agree with YOU.
I think Jakob could have dipped under 3:27 in a perfect race last year so he "only" needs to find around 0.25 seconds per lap to break the current WR. A small increase in his endurance will make it.
PROVIDED HE OVERCOMES HIS INJUTRY PROBLEMS SO HE CAN CONTINUE HIS EFFICIENT, LONG TERM, MAINLY AEROBIC TRANING FOR THE YEARS TO COME.
He also claimed he had "In the first six months of this year, already had run more than 1,240 miles." which despite my respect for the great man, I would have to call absolute bullsh-t on. You ran 206 miles a week for 6 months of any year? 330km a week training for the 1500m? Uggh, that's a no, no you didn't.
Sir, 1,240 miles in six months is 206 miles per month, or less than 50 mpw.
2. Ability to adapt to 800 training without sacrificing much 400 speed
3. Dope - lots of the best dope out there
Having a perfect running form could take care of Nr. 2 and Nr. 3.
The stride of Letsile Tebogo, Noah Lyles, or that Australian teen prodigy Gout Gout is super efficient. Sadly, most of todays 800m runners have one kink or another in their running form, which hinders truly special performances. Marco Arop is close, but not as smooth as required.
it is most likely the first under 1:40 hasn't been born yet.
sub 3:24.99 might exist. I doubt anybody current can do it, but I'd rate Laros the top prospect if one does exist. He might never break 3:28, but there is enough unknown about his ceiling, that you can you say world record is possible, when you look at his early age endurance + speed combination. Everybody else who is good is enough of a known quantity that I can confidently say sub 3:25 is not possible for them.
The person who could run 3:24.99 probably won't ever even run the 1500 because they'll be dominating the 800. You need serious speed to run that fast, and people with serious speed don't usually bump up in distance. So they'd probably stay focused on the 800 and run 1:40. So I don't think you'll see a sub 3:25 until the 800 gets crazy competitive with a bunch of 1:40-1:42 guys annually, forcing a 1:41 guy to bump up to 1500.
There weren't really a lot of chances for 1:42 guys to chase peak Rudisha, that's why he was always winning by 20+ meters
Look at the start lists in the 2010-2012 Diamond Leagues when he was running 1:41 lows. There's Abubaker Kaki, Alfred Yego a few years past his prime, Bosse a few years before his prime, and a bunch of guys with 1:43 high-1:43 low PBs.
A lot of folks here are mentioning Coe and Rudisha but ignoring Kipketer.
Kipketer's 1:41.11 is only .2 off of Rudisha's WR. Those two were just over ten years apart to cross paths but I imagine if they could've raced each other we'd be closer to 1:40 low WR.
BTW, there is a such thing as an 800 meter specialist. Not everyone should be classified as a 400/800 guy or an 800/1500 guy. Rudisha's was a low 45 400 guy which is plenty fast but not as fast as Amos or Korir. Coe owned 800 & 1500 WR at one point (so did Ryun!). ...But Rudisha was an 800 specialist (ok, he was exceptional at 600 also but not really a common event!)
I believe Coe split 45.x on a 4 x 400 at least once.
The two guys to run really fast of the post-Rudisha era were Korir and Brazier. Korir outstanding 400m speed and running 1:42.0x in very impressive fashion. Unfortunately injuries turned him into a guy who can only stay healthy a few months at a time (if that). Brazier an endurance freak with natural 45ish type wheels. Lightly trained running 1:43 with ease. Unfortunately, now can barely train at all. Arop is good, but I’m dubious of faster than 1:42-low. He is durable and can train quite hard, but I don’t know how much faster ge will go. Wanyonyi is an endurance monster like Brazier. Last year he improved his first 400m speed and it made a huge difference in cleaner races. The question will be how comfortable can he run a 49hi/50-flat split while maintaining his signature close. Right now he is never run in a way aggressive enough to hit the 1:41s.
Y'all are sleeping on Will Sumner. I see something special in that dude. He'll be the next biggest US 800 guy. 45 and 1:46 in high school (followed by splitting 44 and 1:44 in just one year at Georgia) is just ridiculous.
He's only 20, so he'll be a legend in the books at his prime soon enough...
This post was edited 38 seconds after it was posted.
Arop is a 46.10 guy. 3.90 seconds is a decent enough cushion.
I'm going back about 8 years and I don't have access to the article, but I read that the 2nd lap of most of the 800 world records has stayed close to the same, it's the 1st lap that has gotten faster.
Typically there's a 2-4 second differential between the first and last lap (in an all out race, not a tactical race).
So, they would have to go out in 48(very low) or 47(high) then come back in 52.
You need someone with the speed to run 46 and the endurance to run 3:30 in the 1500.
That was basically Coe in 81! He ran a 45.6 relay leg when stumbling at baton changeover and starting his run fron practically a standing position. Race is on Youtube and certainly equivalent to 46 flat open. He also ran a solo 3:31.9 (off 52.4, 1:49.1 splits) and a 3:47.3 mile (= 3:30.5 for 1500m) off even splits and with a 13.1 last 100m. Definitely capable of sub 3:30 that year. I'd say he could have got down to 1:41.2 for 800m that year had he chased his own WR a few times, and he'd certainly been sub 1:41 on more recent tracks and with today's shoes, but concurrent 46 flat and 3:30 ability didn't quite equate to sub 1:40.
Armstrong is already warming for Jakob to break the WR!
I love the way you guys think it perfectly natural a runner who hasn't done better than 1:46x for the 800 should beat 3:26 for the 1500. Modern medicine sure is grand. It makes up for a real lack of speed.
Armstrong is already warming for Jakob to break the WR!
I love the way you guys think it perfectly natural a runner who hasn't done better than 1:46x for the 800 should beat 3:26 for the 1500. Modern medicine sure is grand. It makes up for a real lack of speed.
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