Athletes are in a mental game with themselves. The question was why Valby was slower this year? “Must have been the course?”
”I didn’t realize there was only 800m left”. etc.
These answers return subconsciously, as they contend with themselves, “If only…
”but I’ll get ‘em next time.”
A trait of the greats. Instead of self-flagellation, they don’t let their confidence get defeated. There was a shade of truth in both of the answers, so she clung to them.
It takes tremendous guts and a bit of crazy to push oneself to their edge of stamina on a cross-country course, particularly if they have never raced the course previously.
In her post-race interview, Valby said the course caught her at for-guard; she ran it with her team the day before, mistakenly thinking it would mostly be on the fairways.
The course had a section of about 100 meters of sand which they ran 3 times. This is what she was complaining about being harder than expected. Maybe the day before they ran the fairway instead of the sand beside it.
It wasn't the soft sand you normally find in a sand trap but apparently was softer than normal footing. The ground is naturally sandy in that location and there were several more sandy spots in the middle of the course. She tried to avoid these on the later laps by moving to the edge.
btw who was the woman who finished in the top 10 in 2022 champs BUT WAS WEARING SWEATPANTS
because I was like wait, what?
bet she moves up a few places without the extra weight and wind resistance
(though I guess if your muscles freeze and cramp because you aren't used to the cold that would be worse than finishing further back. some people also glycogen-bonk if it gets too cold)
It's tough to square a big positive split for Valby with gaining 30 seconds on Lemngole and running the fastest final split in the field (next to Asekol).
It will be interesting to see what things look like at regionals.
Otoh its clear that most of her gain on Olemomoi and Lemngole was that they slowed big time (to about 5:30 mile pace).
...the implication being that when O & L determined they were well beaten and their podium spots were secure, they smartly shut it down. Tuohy did the same at Nuttycombe, right?
btw who was the woman who finished in the top 10 in 2022 champs BUT WAS WEARING SWEATPANTS
because I was like wait, what?
bet she moves up a few places without the extra weight and wind resistance
(though I guess if your muscles freeze and cramp because you aren't used to the cold that would be worse than finishing further back. some people also glycogen-bonk if it gets too cold)
...the implication being that when O & L determined they were well beaten and their podium spots were secure, they smartly shut it down. Tuohy did the same at Nuttycombe, right?
My take is that Tuohy wasn't fit enough on the day to really challenge Valby and possibly backed off after about 3k. Tuohy certainly did not look tired at the end, but wasn't going to win. Valby won that pretty decisively. Whether this means Valby has surpassed her or Tuohy is just not at peak fitness who knows.
Olemomoi did not look so hot and dropped early. She looks like she shut it down and was gassed at the end.
Lemngole, idk. Maybe misjudged the finish? It was strange that she surged and then slowed so much. It does look like she shut it down based on splits, but I don't think she would have won anyways with that margin.
I’ll go with Lemngole had very little chance of winning and further, Lemngole and Tuohy have very real chances to beat Valby In VA. Given the info at hand, I don’t have a sense (yet) of how good their respective chances are.
Lemngole fell off a cliff after her 3k escapade. Valby redlined wheras others probably tried to run more sensibly.
This is an ignorant take; you obviously don’t know the definition of redlining, which is what an athlete goes through when running beyond their anaerobic threshold for an experienced time, like in a hard 5k.
Beyond just trying to win the SEC race, Valby ran in a manner that would best prepare for Natty’s.
Tuohy will probably win. If you compare the results for both runners to last year's conference championships they're both about the same. The idea that Valby has improved a great deal from last year is just wrong. Maybe she came in with slightly better fitness from summer training but I think it's tough to really make huge improvements when you're already tops in the college system. Anyway I think it'll be a fairly close race but tuohy Will probably have another gear like usual.
Tuohy will probably win. If you compare the results for both runners to last year's conference championships they're both about the same. The idea that Valby has improved a great deal from last year is just wrong. Maybe she came in with slightly better fitness from summer training but I think it's tough to really make huge improvements when you're already tops in the college system. Anyway I think it'll be a fairly close race but tuohy Will probably have another gear like usual.
I’m not in a either camp to say Valby, or Tuohy, will “probably” win. I think it could go either way, and I don’t discount the Kenyans, either.
Personally, I never said Valby “improved a great deal”. I do think, based on Nuttycombe, she has come into this season at least as fit and as strong as last fall, if not more so. I think Parker made the statement at Nuttycombe, “I’m back!”
You are correct we can’t draw a conclusion from the conference race two weeks later that she is fitter than last year. But we can’t conclude the inverse, either. What we do know is that like last year at this time, she is still displaying a very high level of fitness.
However, I took umbrage with the statement Valby “did not run sensibly” at conference; that was just taking a pot-shot without credibility. The race is 22 days removed from Natty’s. That is plenty of time to recover, and super-compensate for hopefully, an even bigger unleashing at Natty’s.
For peaking, Florida will now probably want to do another super-hard effort 11-10 days out from Natty’s, but instead, maybe 12 days out, due to Regionals (to be held on their home course); and then maybe they will just tempo Regionals.
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