When all the points are tallied, there might be some shocking results when looking at the podium berths. Some literally could be decided by one or two points, if not a tie.
So is Tuohy’s first priority to go for the National Title, or is it to hold her position and not give up any sticks to the chase pack?
This was not a question Tuohy faced last year, when NCState was clearly the dominant leader.
Some might argue Tuohy will not face that dilemma this year as well, already conceding NAU will claim the trophy, and nobody remembers who got 2nd anyway.
Even though Lemngole and Olemomoi just got burned, I think there is a chance they go out . I could sort of see Bunnage trying for it again, Machu, some others...
Tuohy also can't let her get away like that this year or the gap will be a lot bigger than it was last championships... I don't know if she has a choice if she wants the title.
When all the points are tallied, there might be some shocking results when looking at the podium berths. Some literally could be decided by one or two points, if not a tie.
So is Tuohy’s first priority to go for the National Title, or is it to hold her position and not give up any sticks to the chase pack?
The difference this year is Valby will factor into team scoring. So if as you suggest the results might be very tight every point might count.
Unless Lemngole/AL thinks she was off yesterday at SECs and decides to go for the win at NCAAs . . . it will be Valby & Tuohy out front . . . then a very elite chase pack including Lemngole, Chmiel, Maatoug, Mitchell . . . and Bunnage . . . then everyone else . . .
^This potential scenario provides the backdrop to the question I posed. Suppose it’s 5300m into the race in which Tuohy has remained a little behind Valby’s hip up to that point. The pace is getting quite laboring, so Tuohy checks her watch to see how fast they are actually going. The watch provides no comfort. And then, she takes a quick peak over her shoulder…
Unless Lemngole/AL thinks she was off yesterday at SECs and decides to go for the win at NCAAs . . . it will be Valby & Tuohy out front . . . then a very elite chase pack including Lemngole, Chmiel, Maatoug, Mitchell . . . and Bunnage . . . then everyone else . . .
^This potential scenario provides the backdrop to the question I posed. Suppose it’s 5300m into the race in which Tuohy has remained a little behind Valby’s hip up to that point. The pace is getting quite laboring, so Tuohy checks her watch to see how fast they are actually going. The watch provides no comfort. And then, she takes a quick peak over her shoulder…
The question at that point in time, is whether Tuohy’s first priority is to:
(1) go for the win, at all costs;
(2) protect her position first.
After all, they say cross country is a “team sport”.
It is an interesting dilemma Tuohy probably hasn’t really faced before.
Her coach may want to discuss potential scenarios with her sometime before the gun goes off.
^This potential scenario provides the backdrop to the question I posed. Suppose it’s 5300m into the race in which Tuohy has remained a little behind Valby’s hip up to that point. The pace is getting quite laboring, so Tuohy checks her watch to see how fast they are actually going. The watch provides no comfort. And then, she takes a quick peak over her shoulder…
The question at that point in time, is whether Tuohy’s first priority is to:
(1) go for the win, at all costs;
(2) protect her position first.
After all, they say cross country is a “team sport”.
It is an interesting dilemma Tuohy probably hasn’t really faced before.
Her coach may want to discuss potential scenarios with her sometime before the gun goes off.
you do pose a good question whether the strategy should be to score no worse than 2 and possibly cede the individual championship, or to go for the individual win and 1 point and risk an implosion to 5-10.
^This potential scenario provides the backdrop to the question I posed. Suppose it’s 5300m into the race in which Tuohy has remained a little behind Valby’s hip up to that point. The pace is getting quite laboring, so Tuohy checks her watch to see how fast they are actually going. The watch provides no comfort. And then, she takes a quick peak over her shoulder…
The question at that point in time, is whether Tuohy’s first priority is to:
(1) go for the win, at all costs;
(2) protect her position first.
After all, they say cross country is a “team sport”.
It is an interesting dilemma Tuohy probably hasn’t really faced before.
Her coach may want to discuss potential scenarios with her sometime before the gun goes off.
Obviously, in point (1), I meant “go for the win, at all costs (at the risk of faltering later in the race, and consequently dropping sticks to some closing chasers).”
The question at that point in time, is whether Tuohy’s first priority is to:
(1) go for the win, at all costs;
(2) protect her position first.
After all, they say cross country is a “team sport”.
It is an interesting dilemma Tuohy probably hasn’t really faced before.
Her coach may want to discuss potential scenarios with her sometime before the gun goes off.
you do pose a good question whether the strategy should be to score no worse than 2 and possibly cede the individual championship, or to go for the individual win and 1 point and risk an implosion to 5-10.
You got it.
A side point the other poster alluded to is that some of the top Kenyans may not have yet revealed the hand they are holding.
I think we saw exactly where Lemngole and Olemomoi are in the grand scheme. My assumption was always that Lemngole would get worse as the sesson progressed.
^This potential scenario provides the backdrop to the question I posed. Suppose it’s 5300m into the race in which Tuohy has remained a little behind Valby’s hip up to that point. The pace is getting quite laboring, so Tuohy checks her watch to see how fast they are actually going. The watch provides no comfort. And then, she takes a quick peak over her shoulder…
The question at that point in time, is whether Tuohy’s first priority is to:
(1) go for the win, at all costs;
(2) protect her position first.
After all, they say cross country is a “team sport”.
It is an interesting dilemma Tuohy probably hasn’t really faced before.
Her coach may want to discuss potential scenarios with her sometime before the gun goes off.
If it is 5300 and Tuohy is right there, she will probably win. I don't think Valby wants it to be close by 5300.
Team points do matter, and this year NC St needs every point. Fl could (in some scenarios) finish ahead of them I think.
Last year Henes and Tuohy decided not to go with Valby, to run her down instead because of the risk of blowing up. I think that will be very very hard to do this year unless Tuohy does an early breakaway with another chase pack that stays closer than Nuttycombe. The main pack will be just too far back.
Bunnage might risk going with Valby again, but would be smarter to stick with Kelsey Chmiel. Chmiel should be the #1 target for Bunnage, Stearns, Mitchell etc. She always paces well and will place high.
you do pose a good question whether the strategy should be to score no worse than 2 and possibly cede the individual championship, or to go for the individual win and 1 point and risk an implosion to 5-10.
Both Valby and Tuohy will be greenlighted to go for it. They will both be 20 seconds clear of the field and even if one imploded can 90% likely hang on for 2nd.
The OSU course required conservatism with the big hill finish. (and carnage all remembered from previous nats) Panorama a different sort of difficult.
Both runners are now even more experienced, and they have reliable experienced teammates. Even the young nc state runners, Stephens and Hartman, run with maturity.
you do pose a good question whether the strategy should be to score no worse than 2 and possibly cede the individual championship, or to go for the individual win and 1 point and risk an implosion to 5-10.
Both Valby and Tuohy will be greenlighted to go for it. They will both be 20 seconds clear of the field and even if one imploded can 90% likely hang on for 2nd.
The OSU course required conservatism with the big hill finish. (and carnage all remembered from previous nats) Panorama a different sort of difficult.
Both runners are now even more experienced, and they have reliable experienced teammates. Even the young nc state runners, Stephens and Hartman, run with maturity.
Valby noticably slowed in the last K of the SEC (despite pulling away from Doris) to the point where her 3K splits were probably 9:07/9:20 (allowing for the apparently slightly long course). Might not be the worst thing to let her get 5 seconds or so ahead by 3K if she is running that fast and then try to run really hard in the fast section from 4K to basically the finish.
I doubt anyone will be going with Valby at Nationals.
It will be the same as last year. Valby will take off all by herself, and Touhy will be the only one to try to catch her.
Everyone else will be racing for third place.
Even though Lemngole and Olemomoi just got burned, I think there is a chance they go out . I could sort of see Bunnage trying for it again, Machu, some others...
Tuohy also can't let her get away like that this year or the gap will be a lot bigger than it was last championships... I don't know if she has a choice if she wants the title.
Tuohy will put winning the team title ahead of winning the individual title. She won't risk blowing up.
Tuohy would rather be the 2nd individual and win the team title instead of the other way around.
Both Valby and Tuohy will be greenlighted to go for it. They will both be 20 seconds clear of the field and even if one imploded can 90% likely hang on for 2nd.
The OSU course required conservatism with the big hill finish. (and carnage all remembered from previous nats) Panorama a different sort of difficult.
Both runners are now even more experienced, and they have reliable experienced teammates. Even the young nc state runners, Stephens and Hartman, run with maturity.
Valby noticably slowed in the last K of the SEC (despite pulling away from Doris) to the point where her 3K splits were probably 9:07/9:20 (allowing for the apparently slightly long course). Might not be the worst thing to let her get 5 seconds or so ahead by 3K if she is running that fast and then try to run really hard in the fast section from 4K to basically the finish.
When I looked at it, the course wasn't long, but the 3k /5k measurements were off, more like 2.92, 4.92 but the total length ~6k. If anything the course might be slightly short. To me it looks like Valby paced pretty even the last 2k and Lemngole just slowed way, way down.
The opening 1.8 was very fast and I wonder if something was off there. I just don't see Thorvaldsen for example running as quick as she did during that stretch.
I doubt anyone will be going with Valby at Nationals.
It will be the same as last year. Valby will take off all by herself, and Touhy will be the only one to try to catch her.
Everyone else will be racing for third place.
Even though Lemngole and Olemomoi just got burned, I think there is a chance they go out . I could sort of see Bunnage trying for it again, Machu, some others...
Tuohy also can't let her get away like that this year or the gap will be a lot bigger than it was last championships... I don't know if she has a choice if she wants the title.
Kenyan runners will typically try to stick with the leaders, especially if they are not used to American just-good-enough strategies, being new to the country. I see a repeat of SECs with one person sticking with Valby until she is dying.
Even though Lemngole and Olemomoi just got burned, I think there is a chance they go out . I could sort of see Bunnage trying for it again, Machu, some others...
Tuohy also can't let her get away like that this year or the gap will be a lot bigger than it was last championships... I don't know if she has a choice if she wants the title.
Kenyan runners will typically try to stick with the leaders, especially if they are not used to American just-good-enough strategies, being new to the country. I see a repeat of SECs with one person sticking with Valby until she is dying.
Yes. We saw all the star Kenyan freshman do that at the conferences -Chepnegetich, Kosgei, Cherubet, Lemngole. It's admirable. There is a chance we see a bigger pack go with Valby, especially if Tuohy goes.
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