No, that is not "most likely." You made a very obvious and 100% unjustifiable assumption - "So, even if we assume that one out of every trillion planets has intelligent life". That is a completely arbitrary assumption.
You might as well assume that the probability of intelligent life on a given planet is 1 in 10^100. With this equally arbitrary assumption the probability of there being intelligent life elsewhere in the Universe becomes infinitesimal.
moorest oversimplified it but is largely right. The Drake equation explains why.
Drake equation is a bunch of made up mumbo jumbo. It is based entirely on hypotheticals and not real science. "But they use variables and math symbols". It's still made up garbage. I could use the same equation to "justify" the existence of subterranean lizard people
Why not? We’ve already sent Voyager 1 to the edge of the solar system and there is a chance it might one day in the distant future well crash land on some planet.
It’s hardly inconceivable that in 8752, we might be launching spacecraft every day that travel at 0.9c and crap all over various other galaxies a couple thousand years later.
It's really hard for most of us to appreciate the distances that need to be traveled. Even though Voyager 1 was launched in 1977 and travels around 1 million miles each day (insane!) with a speed of around 38k mph, it took 35 years for it to enter interstellar space. It's going to take another 300 years for it to reach the Oort Cloud and another 30,000 years just to cross it... let that sink in. If we could travel at light speed, we could cover 16 billion miles in 1 day, but that just gets us past the Kuiper Belt. It would take another 29 days of travel at light speed to get to the Oort Cloud. The nearest star with planets is more than 4 light years away. I'll let you do the math and estimate how long it would take Voyager 1 to travel that distance.
Sounds like you agree with me that that future is distant.
moorest oversimplified it but is largely right. The Drake equation explains why.
Drake equation is a bunch of made up mumbo jumbo. It is based entirely on hypotheticals and not real science. "But they use variables and math symbols". It's still made up garbage. I could use the same equation to "justify" the existence of subterranean lizard people
Given the size of the universe it's statistically unlikely that there aren't subterranean lizard people somewhere.
If the multi-verse theory is true it's probable that there's a subterranean lizard person on running forum somewhere declaring that there aren't and surface dwelling apes in existence.
I wish, but No way. Lets just assume the nearest habitable planet (proxima b) just happened to have intelligent life. It would take over 6000 years to travel that distance at say Mach 25. The distance even within our own part of the galaxy are astronomical. Theres simply not enough time to make the trip.
I love this picture. Shows you where voyager 1 is right now. I will take million of years to get to the next planet outside of our solar system. Why would any civilization travel million of miles to get to us.
Keep in mind it's a logarithmic scale. To visualize this, imagine you're the sun and your wife sits 3ft from you, she is the earth. How far away would your neighbor have to be in this model to visualize the nearest planet outside of our solar system?
Over 200 miles!
People don't understand how far away other solar systems are.
Drake equation is a bunch of made up mumbo jumbo. It is based entirely on hypotheticals and not real science. "But they use variables and math symbols". It's still made up garbage. I could use the same equation to "justify" the existence of subterranean lizard people
The problem isn't the Drake Equation which, as I have said, is completely obvious and trivial. The problem lies with people who do not understand the Drake Equation and what it does, and does not, imply.
That Grusch guy is full of it. In his testimony, he repeatedly had chances to come forward with bombshell information about the discovery of alien life, but would always be evasive and instead talk about "non-human biologics" or claim that he had to be in a SCIF to disclose any further information. If you are going to be a whistleblower, blow the freaking whistle. You don't blow the whistle by having off the record discussions in a SCIF with some odd congress members. Say it loud so the world can hear it. "I saw a dead alien dude. He had big eyes and green skin."
What is really going on is that the US military has been using UFO sightings for years to coverup advance propulsion systems. The "men in black" who have been reported to visit people who report UFOs are just CIA/defense department spooks who try to make sure people do not have any top secret info or have recovered parts of experimental aircraft.
Nope not buying it. If we had that kind of tech it would be extremely hard to hide and we'd be out there using it directly against our enemies. I'm pretty sure there isn't some mad US scientist locked up sitting inside some bunker holding on to this little secret until the right time. It would take a massive conspiracy to keep that sort of thing a secret and for what gain?
I love this picture. Shows you where voyager 1 is right now. I will take million of years to get to the next planet outside of our solar system. Why would any civilization travel million of miles to get to us.
Keep in mind it's a logarithmic scale. To visualize this, imagine you're the sun and your wife sits 3ft from you, she is the earth. How far away would your neighbor have to be in this model to visualize the nearest planet outside of our solar system?
Over 200 miles!
People don't understand how far away other solar systems are.
The most appropriate picture is just one with nothingness in black space.. everything is incredibly far away.
I wish, but No way. Lets just assume the nearest habitable planet (proxima b) just happened to have intelligent life. It would take over 6000 years to travel that distance at say Mach 25. The distance even within our own part of the galaxy are astronomical. Theres simply not enough time to make the trip.
It’s a question power harnessing as time shrinks with speed provided you have the power to attain such speeds in the light of increasing mass.
I love this picture. Shows you where voyager 1 is right now. I will take million of years to get to the next planet outside of our solar system. Why would any civilization travel million of miles to get to us.
Keep in mind it's a logarithmic scale. To visualize this, imagine you're the sun and your wife sits 3ft from you, she is the earth. How far away would your neighbor have to be in this model to visualize the nearest planet outside of our solar system?
Over 200 miles!
People don't understand how far away other solar systems are.
I don't like visualizing that kind of distance because, for some reason, it reminds me of my own mortality.
Theres a big difference between scientific findings suggesting there is no other life, and science being incapable of determining other life. Wr have no means of analyzing the closest planet, let alone the trillions of others, so how on earth can science rule it out. You argument is flawed. In fact, there is nothing to suggest the conditions on earth are that unique, yet life developed. I reasonable to hypothesize it has billions of other times too.
THe only reason I can think that someone would take such a closed view on even the possibility is due to religious ignorance. My apologies if that is not the case. But that has been my experience.
Why not? We’ve already sent Voyager 1 to the edge of the solar system and there is a chance it might one day in the distant future well crash land on some planet.
It’s hardly inconceivable that in 8752, we might be launching spacecraft every day that travel at 0.9c and crap all over various other galaxies a couple thousand years later.
It's really hard for most of us to appreciate the distances that need to be traveled. Even though Voyager 1 was launched in 1977 and travels around 1 million miles each day (insane!) with a speed of around 38k mph, it took 35 years for it to enter interstellar space. It's going to take another 300 years for it to reach the Oort Cloud and another 30,000 years just to cross it... let that sink in. If we could travel at light speed, we could cover 16 billion miles in 1 day, but that just gets us past the Kuiper Belt. It would take another 29 days of travel at light speed to get to the Oort Cloud. The nearest star with planets is more than 4 light years away. I'll let you do the math and estimate how long it would take Voyager 1 to travel that distance.
And this is just talking about getting to the next solar system. All the others are much further away and our galaxy is 100,000 light years across. What I'm getting at is that light speed isn't sufficient. This is why most sci-fi books just go the portal/space jump route. So for you to believe that aliens are visiting us in crafts, you have to believe they found us somehow and figured out how to jump vast distances to get here.
Even if another solar system has the conditions for intelligent life capable of this kind of tech/magic, time is another factor that must be considered. The universe is supposed to be 13.7 billion years old. The conditions for intelligent life in another solar system need to be right at the same time that it has happened to us.
I believe there is intelligent life out there due to the mind boggling estimated 2 trillion galaxies in the universe. But due the distances and travel contraints, the odds of one identifying another are just too low.
This UFO stuff is pure fantasy...
This is it, the vastness of space makes it seem unlikely Earth is the only place life exists, however it's vastness also prevents any life from reaching each other.
Time is also the other factor. What are the odds of life existing in two places at the same time? Alien life could have existed billions of years ago or billions of years in the future...
I love this picture. Shows you where voyager 1 is right now. I will take million of years to get to the next planet outside of our solar system. Why would any civilization travel million of miles to get to us.
Keep in mind it's a logarithmic scale. To visualize this, imagine you're the sun and your wife sits 3ft from you, she is the earth. How far away would your neighbor have to be in this model to visualize the nearest planet outside of our solar system?
Over 200 miles!
People don't understand how far away other solar systems are.
I don't like visualizing that kind of distance because, for some reason, it reminds me of my own mortality.
It should feel freeing. This means you still think you are in control of anything meaningful. We are literally riding on a spec of dirt in a massively vast and dark universe... oh and only for a tiny blip of time in history.
I don't like visualizing that kind of distance because, for some reason, it reminds me of my own mortality.
It should feel freeing. This means you still think you are in control of anything meaningful. We are literally riding on a spec of dirt in a massively vast and dark universe... oh and only for a tiny blip of time in history.
I've always been a control freak. This has been a good session.
That Grusch guy is full of it. In his testimony, he repeatedly had chances to come forward with bombshell information about the discovery of alien life, but would always be evasive and instead talk about "non-human biologics" or claim that he had to be in a SCIF to disclose any further information. If you are going to be a whistleblower, blow the freaking whistle. You don't blow the whistle by having off the record discussions in a SCIF with some odd congress members. Say it loud so the world can hear it. "I saw a dead alien dude. He had big eyes and green skin."
What is really going on is that the US military has been using UFO sightings for years to coverup advance propulsion systems. The "men in black" who have been reported to visit people who report UFOs are just CIA/defense department spooks who try to make sure people do not have any top secret info or have recovered parts of experimental aircraft.
Nope not buying it. If we had that kind of tech it would be extremely hard to hide and we'd be out there using it directly against our enemies. I'm pretty sure there isn't some mad US scientist locked up sitting inside some bunker holding on to this little secret until the right time. It would take a massive conspiracy to keep that sort of thing a secret and for what gain?
Advanced propulsion systems are kept secret because they don't work well enough to be deployed for military or civilian purposes. It is all under development. And even if something did work well enough to be used in combat or for spying, etc., we would not be telling the world about it if the technology had stealth properties. We would just use it. As soon as any adversary finds out that we have some advance propulsion system, they will immediately do everything they can to try to capture it or defeat it. But they cannot do that when they do not even know what we have.
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