The 5000m final at worlds will be won in sub 12:40

You are right: Komen´s WB WAS a weak record, BUT......

Jakob´s new WB at 7:54 is not a weak record. According to World Athletic´s point system the new 2 mile WB is stronger than the 5000m WR at 12:35 (and stronger than the 3000m and the 1500m WRs). So Jakob´s 7:54 2 mile is significantly stronger than a 5000m in 12:40 (which none of the east Africans have run this year).

Do your home work before posting.

And who are are your darlings who you don´t accuse of doping?

And you never figured that these "formulas" used by the world athletics are quite subjective? How can you compare Duplantis poll volt record with 100m WR or mile WR?

We are speaking of records that stood 25 years+

So the right formula will give them 2600 points (double).

This seems like the correct take- "the field" will be extremely confident having run in the low 12:40s all summer. They will not be afraid to take it hard and won't let Jakob just walk away with it that easily. This race should be an all time classic

I'm so excited i will be in Budapest to watch It live. The key point is that there are many guys that can "easily" run 12'40" or even sub 12'40" and they will be fresh for only running the 5.000m. Jakob Is strong and consistent but he is not an alien of the 5k and the doubling factor is crucial for me. No way he is going to double with this kind of 5k focused competitors.

The field’s best chance of winning, is if Jakob gets sick or injured. That might happen. If not he is the most consistent runner in the world - the ethiopians and kenyans are NOT.

Arigawi is all over the place. What happened to him at worlds last year?

Aregawi last year ran a tactically poor (passive, aimless) race in the 10K. They scratched him from the 5K as a result. He's had no stinkers this year outside of Florence.

I mean right now Jakob seems to have all the answers at 5,000, but that's of course easier to have when you don't race the event.

This isn't fully comparable but remember after Worlds last year, everyone was like how do you beat Wightman at 1500 now. He's got the speed advantage and can execute the double-kick. Lo and behold, two guys got him at the Commonwealth Games as they were prepared for the exact move he made and saved a sprint for the end.

Now from last year, I suspect the emphasis for the East Africans/Katir will be to beat Jakob to the punch and not let him get the lead from 800 to 600 to go and do his thing. Lest you think they don't think like this, both Kipsang and Cheruiyot very much tried to take the lead from Jakob in the 1500 because they knew it would upset his race plan — it worked, just not for them. I know some have suggested they should be patient and wait for a last 200 burst, but again I think Jakob (like Farah before him) has been so good at measuring his effort, I'm dubious that any of these guys are explosive enough kickers to beat him this way.

Nah, championship distance races are rarely super fast. Your thinking contains some merit but thinking that 5K would average 60.8 per lap or whatever shows you need to think further.

I didn’t say 7:54 was a weak record. Reading comprehension is key.

I said:

1) given his 1500m speed, it doesn’t necessarily mean he is better than 12:40 at 5k

and

2) the race I saw Kejelcha run, a 12:41 after going out in 7:47 at 3k was to me more impressive… last 2k was run at the same pace as jakob’s 2 mile.

Maybe you check this 12:40 quote.

Do your home work before posting.

I agree the 5k is not going to be 12:40 territory. I think people underestimate how much certain African individuals want to win and think they can win, and they are all not going to sacrifice their chances for someone else’s win.

I predict cautious first half as nobody wants to lead and then a major wind-up second half to the finish, which seems like will play right into Jakob’s hands.

Apart from regularly being wrong when predicting Jakob´s performances you are now also a CONSPIRACY THEORIST speculating in McSweyn sacrifizing himself for a runner from another country. As JWH already has pointed out : That is completely nuts.

Jakob´s ability in the 5000m: So I assume that his "limited 5000m talent" means that he won´t win the 5000m final? And that he never will break the current 5000m WR?

Interesting to have some statements from you so we have something to come back to.

Don´t put too much in the hope that Jakob is running on tired legs. As pointed out by another poster Jakob has 3 days from the qualifying heat to the final in the 5000m and that is enough.

He has earlier run every day (some times twice per day) in Championships and he is very fast to recover. Besides: The 5000m heat probably isn´t more than a warm up for him. The same for the earlier 1500m heats.

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We disagree about who the favorite for gold is but I agree with other posters on this thread that nothing is certain (as we have seen in the past where both El-G, K. Bekele and Mo Farah have lost to outsiders.

And most predictions about the placements and the outfolding of the race will be wrong.

Read the threads before the 5000m final in Eugene last year and you will see how wrong people were (including myself: I had Cheptegei, Barega, Jakob and Krop as the main favorites but the first mentioned never came close to medals; only the last 2 succeeded.)

There is nobody in the world, as far as we know, who can easily run 12:40 or sub 12:40. So let us put this sort of nonsense to rest.

I will add that there are 4 runners who have run sub 12:40 and only one of them is still competing and he cannot easily do it as he did it once 3 years ago.

Who are the favourites for you? I see the guys who have ran 12'40"-12'41" this year as the favourites.

The “Objective Observer” worships Jakob so of course he is the favorite in his eyes. Jakob is the favorite. That doesn’t mean he will win of course. But NOBODY will break 12:45 in this race. It just won’t happen. Anyone who thinks it will doesn’t have a clue about how championship races are contested, with no pacemakers and little incentive to be the sacrificial lamb.

I consider the ethiopians favourite not because i think that the race is going to be 12'40" paced but for the "freshness" factor actually. There are many guys who are in the same league of Jacob in the 5k and that are going to race them as the only event.

Yes Jakob can be defeated for sure. But Mo Farah was also doubling and he usually doubled successfully. Remember this is not a time trial. This is a race. Jakob is the favorite but the field is a real challenge for him. We shall see.