Who would win in an all-star 1500m final between the last 12 Olympic champions in their primes?

We have a winner.

How about this: El G could run 3:24.5 in super shoes.

The gun goes off. El G goes straight to the front. Runs 3:24. Everyone else races for second because they can't come close to that.

He is running his victory lap with flag in hand as they finish and fall on the ground in a pile of humanity.

2 - Jakob Ingebrigsten (2020)

9 - Matthew Centrowitz (2016)
7 - Taoufik Makhloufi (2012)
5 - Asbel Kiprop (2008)
1 - Hicham El Guerrouj (2004)
4 - Noah Ngeny (2000)
3 - Noureddine Morceli (1996)
8 - Fermin Cacho (1992)
11 - Peter Romo (1988)
6 - Seb Coe (1980, 1984)
10 - John Walker (1976)

So are you saying that Coe and Jakob were obvious dopers and/or their performances are suspicious?

You are beginning to see the light.

Have you even read the topic you are replying to? On par with Coevett...

El G has five runs faster than Morceli's prior WR. Five. One and a half seconds is huge at that level -- there is about as big a gap between El G and Morceli as there is between Morceli and Josh Kerr, for example.

There's a reason Seb is the only one to have won two. If its a tactical affair, it would be almost impossible for them to outsprint a 1:41 800m guy. If its a sub 3:30 race, it would be a dog fight between Jakob, Morcelli and Hicham with Hicham most likely coming out on top if he didn't lead it from the gun.

lol you are pleasant.

I see no issue with pointing out what year I believe to be peak Coe. I wasn't gonna go through every single person.

Man, Jakob is just nowhere near El G and Morceli (or maybe even Ngeny) yet. He may well get there in the next year or two, but I just don't see how he would be part of the El G Morceli dual.

Great topic. I think the outcome might be more random than expected with so many guys of near-equal ability jostling for position, but you're way overthinking it if you don't have El G as a heavy favorite. Other podium contenders would be Coe, Ngeny, Morceli, and Makhloufi, and I really don't think there's much between them. Jakob would probably be the one to try and make the pace fast after a cagey first lap, but he'd get swallowed up at the bell and finish mid-pack. Kiprop has the talent/dope to be a factor, but he was always a bad tactical racer which would doom him here. Centro would be in last place for most of the race, but he'd probably pick off a few guys at the end.

I think my podium is El G, Coe, Ngeny, with the winning time being about 3:30/31, but there are so many ways this could play out.

Maybe you just re-think what the topic means?

Correct.

Someone has to help me with this; We write endlessly on here about the super shoes, but for this conversation it has barely been mentioned.

Jakob, with super shoes, is slower than El G in waffle racers.

With super shoes, if all the research and anecdotal evidence is correct, El G is 3:24 or so in his prime.

Jakob can't touch that, and he HAS the shoes, and the lights, and the pacers, and the best tracks, etc. He hasn't even touched 3:26.

There is no solid argument that puts Jakob in a race with El G, if both get the same shoes.

With the shoes, and based on their best times, you have to put El G about 3 seconds faster than Jakob.

To me that runs counter to your contention that Seb Coe would win. Coe was 2.6 seconds slower than Morceli, greater than the 1.37 seconds between Morceli and El Guerrouj. Of course, Coe could have run faster in 1981 than his 3:29.77 lifetime best or his PB when he won both golds, only 3:31.95–but he ran in the context of the competition and expectations of his time. If prime Morceli had raced El Guerrouj or been chasing a 3:26 WR, he would have run 3:26.xx. Probably capable of low 7:20s for 3k too, but he smashed the WR by 3.85 seconds and that was good enough for him. I’m not saying he could have run 3:26.00, but I think he’s close enough in fitness to capitalize on his superior finishing speed in a race where El G or Jakob have to act as the de facto pacers.

I suspect Coe was most likely a 3:28 guy, maybe even 3:27-high on his best day, though at that point you’d expect him to have gone out and run faster than 3:31.95 before 1986. But 3:27-high is still slower than 4 of the guys in the race (and slower than 3:43.40 Ngeny was capable of), and Coe never had the experience of running in a race where anyone else broke 3:32 (!), which has to work against him here.

Of course the key fundamental difference between our predictions is I think it would be fast, while you think Jakob would run 2:01 through 800. Which returns me to my other criticism: Jakob and others aren’t falling off the lead group in the 3rd lap of 53.8 after a 2:01 first 800. 2:01 is close to his 5k pace, and his 1500 pace is 55.2/lap. And let me remind you that Rui Silva split 1:46.3 for the last 800 in Athens. Nobody would lose contact with the man in front of them during your 3rd lap; most would be able to further accelerate in the last 300 and a few would just be able to maintain 40.xx for the last 300, but nobody’s getting dropped that easily.

I think the race would go out at a moderate but not particularly fast, say ~1:42 through 700. Then Jakob takes the lead and drops a 55, leading until ~200 to go, where he gets dusted by El Guerrouj and picked off by a couple more. Winning time 3:29 with a 52 high last lap. Order as follows:

1. Hicham El Guerrouj (2004)

2. Noureddine Morceli (1996)

3. Noah Ngeny (2000)

4. Asbel Kiprop (2008)

5. Jakob Ingebrigsten (2020)

6. Seb Coe (1980/84)

7. Fermin Cacho (1992)

8. Taoufik Makhloufi (2012)

9. John Walker (1976)

10. Matthew Centrowitz (2016)

11. Peter Romo (1988)

Great question.

My first thought was Morceli - nobody better over the final 400m of reasonably paced championship races (anywhere between 1.54 and 2.00 at 800m). He closed a 3.34.2 race in 50.6 in Stuttgart '93 with more in the tank if he needed it. Wild.

But then of course El Guerrouj running sub 40 in his 3.26.00 WR, and he also ran 3.27.65 in a World final and he also shut it down with 50m to go.

But of course you have to try and guess how the race is run and really I think we can accurately do this. Simply no way it is a 2.00 at 800m race with Jakob and Hicham there - I think when you look at Jakob now, Hicham in the late 90's where almost no pace in the opening 600m scared him, there is simply no way we don't see something close to 1.52 at the 800.

I just believe in the next 200m the field is really getting close to threshold. Centro, Walker, Rono I think really begin to feel it and start to lag. Cacho is getting close so is Makhloufi and Coe. Ngeny can hang but his problem is the pace isn't going to drop quite enough in 3rd lap for him to use his 2.11 1000m power. I mean what do we do with Kiprop - red eyes super juiced 3.26 Kiprop can definitely handle any pace (he was sub 2.46 in his 3.26) but he was officially the only one caught so I just don't even want to think about him in this hypothetical.

Through 1200 in 2.47.5ish, no way anyone other than El G leads this. He has the ability to accelerate past Jakob at any point and would and I guess it would be around 1000m point at latest. The train coming round the final bend is El G, Morceli trying to get round the big body of Jakob and Ngeny with his head back hanging on for dear life.

It's cliche and seems like the easy answer but prime El G is considerably better than anyone else. Even with a comparatively slow opening 700m he can bludgeon the field into submission even better than Jakob can. Morceli is the best over the final 400m if they hit 1000m in 2.28 but that's just not happening. El G wins, Jakob holds on for second because he's too big for Morceli to pass and Morceli gets bronze. A bit predictable but that's the way it is in my mind.

p.s who is Peter Romo - is that Tony's uncle ;)

Jakob Ingebrigtsen

I think this is an intelligent and realistic analysis, I only think it’s funny that Jakob is just “too big” for Morceli to pass in the final 100, taking up 3-4 lanes of the track with his incredible girth.

Peter Romo is Mario Garcia’s dad - the Hispanic athlete who won surprise gold in 1988.

Prompt given to ChatGPT: If all runners are in their prime, and considering personal best times, personal best 800 meter times, championships won, and head-to-head records, which of the following would win an all-star 1500 meter running race? (Then the names were provided).

Response (I cut out the meaningless part where it recites the question back to you for context):

1) Hicham El Guerrouj (2004) - Hicham El Guerrouj is one of the greatest middle-distance runners of all time. He holds the world record for the 1500 meters and mile events. With his remarkable speed, endurance, and racing tactics, El Guerrouj would be a strong candidate for the victory.

2) Noureddine Morceli (1996) - Another exceptional middle-distance runner, Noureddine Morceli, holds multiple world records and championships in various distances. His incredible speed and dominance during his prime years would make him a serious contender.

3) Asbel Kiprop (2008) - Asbel Kiprop is an Olympic champion and has had a successful career in the 1500 meters. His past performances and championship experience could give him an edge in this hypothetical race.

4) Taoufik Makhloufi (2012) - Taoufik Makhloufi won the gold medal in the 1500 meters at the 2012 Olympics. His impressive racing abilities and championship experience make him a strong competitor.

5) Jakob Ingebrigsten (2020) - Although relatively younger compared to some of the other athletes, Jakob Ingebrigsten has shown tremendous potential and has set impressive times in both 1500 meters and 800 meters. His determination and skills would make him a noteworthy contender.

It's worth noting that Peter Rono (1988) and Fermin Cacho (1992) have also had successful careers and could potentially be competitive, but they may face tougher competition from the athletes mentioned above.

As for the other runners in the list, while they are outstanding athletes in their own right, the strong competition from the athletes mentioned above would make it more challenging for them to secure the top positions in this all-star race.

In his own words, "I am the pacemaker."

Which means that in this race he finishes just outside the top three, at best. He can't run away from the field and he can't out kick the field.

He's a great runner. A legend. But in this race he would have no shot.

Makh Daddy left Steve Cram speechless in 2012.