nxr northwest team #4 rocky mountain would have won both nxr midwest and heartland.
If you go by the speed ratings they would have finished 2nd in both regions. They would not have won either.
no no no, they would have won. We aren't going by speed ratings. The team times indicate it would have been a blow out. Unless conditions were bad, do you know?
If there 2 bids from the Northwest and 2 from the Southwest, there will have to be 0 bids in the California region
Going into state, I don't think anyone outside of Great Oak and Dana Hills in California is "deserving" of an NXN bid, any more than Franklin and Rocky are.
I am not a Rocky fan at all. I think they are annoying AF, but Rocky and Dana Hills already raced. Even if Hernandez was there, Rocky wins by 30+ points.
I don't think Dana Hills is more "deserving" of a bid, and I definitely don't think Great Oak is if they don't have Westin Brown.
Going into state, I don't think anyone outside of Great Oak and Dana Hills in California is "deserving" of an NXN bid, any more than Franklin and Rocky are.
I am not a Rocky fan at all. I think they are annoying AF, but Rocky and Dana Hills already raced. Even if Hernandez was there, Rocky wins by 30+ points.
I don't think Dana Hills is more "deserving" of a bid, and I definitely don't think Great Oak is if they don't have Westin Brown.
Dana Hills won't need a bid, they will win the merge in California. Also this will age really badly at nxn.
I am not a Rocky fan at all. I think they are annoying AF, but Rocky and Dana Hills already raced. Even if Hernandez was there, Rocky wins by 30+ points.
I don't think Dana Hills is more "deserving" of a bid, and I definitely don't think Great Oak is if they don't have Westin Brown.
Dana Hills won't need a bid, they will win the merge in California. Also this will age really badly at nxn.
I was saying that I think Great Oak and Dana Hills will auto qualify, and the third best California team will be worse than Franklin and/or Rocky
If you go by the speed ratings they would have finished 2nd in both regions. They would not have won either.
So they would have AQ'd out of either region.
Not important to the conversation. The poster stated that they would have won the other two regions, and I pointed to data indicating that they would NOT have won either. Of course they very easily could have won or placed 2nd, 3rd or 4th in any of the regions because the teams are all pretty evenly matched.
I'm saying that if both were up for an at-large. It's not actually relevant because they'll win, but I don't think either team would win the 5A Idaho State Meet and maybe neither one would have even been third.
Rocky Mountain and Franklin both averaged MUCH more impressive team times, only ~10 seconds slower, yet on a much harder course.
Team Times don't indicate who would win a XC Race. They are very easily inflated by having one or two very fast runners.
But speedratings also indicate a top 2 performance in either region. Putting both pieces of the puzzle together, unless California or NE can do better at their regionals (which is still up in the air) then it should be 2 SW and 2 NW based off of what we know so far
Looking at the results, and we still have a long way to go but I don't think the NW will get a at large qualifying bid.
One of the top criteria that is examined by the committee is who you beat. Franklin obviously finished the year strong but if you look at their resume it doesn't show that of a NXN team (based on the criteria set forward by NXN). Similar to Rocky Mountain (minus a sick Great Oak team) last year, Franklin didn't race or beat anybody. Arguably their best win was the state meet over the eventual 6th best team in the Northwest. You can argue they beat Crater at Rose City but I'm sure the committee will take into account the fact that Crater raced the day before. They also lost to Valor Christian at Nike Portland XC who finished 4th in the 4a Division at the Colorado State meet.
Similar to 2019, it seems like their coach's reluctance to actually go out and race people might end up costing them an NXN bid.
Not important to the conversation. The poster stated that they would have won the other two regions, and I pointed to data indicating that they would NOT have won either. Of course they very easily could have won or placed 2nd, 3rd or 4th in any of the regions because the teams are all pretty evenly matched.
Except the team that was 30+ points out of qualifying at the NW would take 2nd at two other regions.
For what it's worth, the Heartland winner would have been 5th if you put their speed scores into the NW. The Midwest winner would have been neck and neck with Rocky if you did the same.
I'm saying that if both were up for an at-large. It's not actually relevant because they'll win, but I don't think either team would win the 5A Idaho State Meet and maybe neither one would have even been third.
Sorry i accidently downvoted. It's hard to say cause CDA is a good team and so is Dana Hills. We will see who is better at nxn, hows that?
Not important to the conversation. The poster stated that they would have won the other two regions, and I pointed to data indicating that they would NOT have won either. Of course they very easily could have won or placed 2nd, 3rd or 4th in any of the regions because the teams are all pretty evenly matched.
no matter how you see it, rocky mountain would have won the 2 other regions. you can hate and downvote me all you want, or you can prove me wrong at nxn. So what will it be?
Not important to the conversation. The poster stated that they would have won the other two regions, and I pointed to data indicating that they would NOT have won either. Of course they very easily could have won or placed 2nd, 3rd or 4th in any of the regions because the teams are all pretty evenly matched.
no matter how you see it, rocky mountain would have won the 2 other regions. you can hate and downvote me all you want, or you can prove me wrong at nxn. So what will it be?
I mean, Rocky probably won't go, so he'll probably take the downvote option.
no matter how you see it, rocky mountain would have won the 2 other regions. you can hate and downvote me all you want, or you can prove me wrong at nxn. So what will it be?
I mean, Rocky probably won't go, so he'll probably take the downvote option.
Going into state, I don't think anyone outside of Great Oak and Dana Hills in California is "deserving" of an NXN bid, any more than Franklin and Rocky are.
I am not a Rocky fan at all. I think they are annoying AF, but Rocky and Dana Hills already raced. Even if Hernandez was there, Rocky wins by 30+ points.
I don't think Dana Hills is more "deserving" of a bid, and I definitely don't think Great Oak is if they don't have Westin Brown.
I think we need to put it all into context that Bob Firman was Dana Hills’ second race of the season a week after another high caliber race plus traveling to altitude. Hernandez was also not in the lineup. I mean if anything, Rocky should have beat Dana at Bob Firman due to at that time Rocky being ranked 3rd in NW and Dana being ranked 5th in California.
Two weeks later at Clovis, we start to see Dana round form and reshuffle the rankings with Hernandez included. And looking at everything now, Dana has only gotten better each week and Rocky has slid. Dana is more than deserving to have an auto bid since they also have wins over the second best team Great Oak and have twice beaten #3/4 San Clemente even more so by a larger margin at their most recent league finals outing. If things stay true to form, Dana and Great Oak deserve their auto bids.
Like mentioned prior, if Oakdale and/or San Clemente are close enough to Great Oak in the merge, they should be up for consideration for an at large birth. The only way I see California getting an at large berth out right is if Great Oak plus San Clemente get one two in the merge and Dana finishes third. Which there is a possibility since Dana will race later on in the late morning/afternoon at State and dependent on how hot it gets for their race. Even in November, Fresno can get pretty hot in the afternoon.
I am not a Rocky fan at all. I think they are annoying AF, but Rocky and Dana Hills already raced. Even if Hernandez was there, Rocky wins by 30+ points.
I don't think Dana Hills is more "deserving" of a bid, and I definitely don't think Great Oak is if they don't have Westin Brown.
I think we need to put it all into context that Bob Firman was Dana Hills’ second race of the season a week after another high caliber race plus traveling to altitude. Hernandez was also not in the lineup. I mean if anything, Rocky should have beat Dana at Bob Firman due to at that time Rocky being ranked 3rd in NW and Dana being ranked 5th in California.
Two weeks later at Clovis, we start to see Dana round form and reshuffle the rankings with Hernandez included. And looking at everything now, Dana has only gotten better each week and Rocky has slid. Dana is more than deserving to have an auto bid since they also have wins over the second best team Great Oak and have twice beaten #3/4 San Clemente even more so by a larger margin at their most recent league finals outing. If things stay true to form, Dana and Great Oak deserve their auto bids.
Like mentioned prior, if Oakdale and/or San Clemente are close enough to Great Oak in the merge, they should be up for consideration for an at large birth. The only way I see California getting an at large berth out right is if Great Oak plus San Clemente get one two in the merge and Dana finishes third. Which there is a possibility since Dana will race later on in the late morning/afternoon at State and dependent on how hot it gets for their race. Even in November, Fresno can get pretty hot in the afternoon.
Agree mostly. Dana Hills has gotten a lot better since the start of the season. So has Rocky. Speed ratings wise, Rocky had it's best two races at State and NXR. Given the weight of Franklin and Rocky's performances at NXR, a team would have to do quite well and get 3rd at the California State merge.
I think we need to put it all into context that Bob Firman was Dana Hills’ second race of the season a week after another high caliber race plus traveling to altitude. Hernandez was also not in the lineup. I mean if anything, Rocky should have beat Dana at Bob Firman due to at that time Rocky being ranked 3rd in NW and Dana being ranked 5th in California.
Two weeks later at Clovis, we start to see Dana round form and reshuffle the rankings with Hernandez included. And looking at everything now, Dana has only gotten better each week and Rocky has slid. Dana is more than deserving to have an auto bid since they also have wins over the second best team Great Oak and have twice beaten #3/4 San Clemente even more so by a larger margin at their most recent league finals outing. If things stay true to form, Dana and Great Oak deserve their auto bids.
Like mentioned prior, if Oakdale and/or San Clemente are close enough to Great Oak in the merge, they should be up for consideration for an at large birth. The only way I see California getting an at large berth out right is if Great Oak plus San Clemente get one two in the merge and Dana finishes third. Which there is a possibility since Dana will race later on in the late morning/afternoon at State and dependent on how hot it gets for their race. Even in November, Fresno can get pretty hot in the afternoon.
Agree mostly. Dana Hills has gotten a lot better since the start of the season. So has Rocky. Speed ratings wise, Rocky had it's best two races at State and NXR. Given the weight of Franklin and Rocky's performances at NXR, a team would have to do quite well and get 3rd at the California State merge.
TBH I just don’t see rocky getting a bid for being fourth. They should travel to other regions next year. If they wanted an at large this year, they should’ve traveled this year AND gotten third at NXR.