I am not sure why anyone thinks he can ever do it. He seems more like Komen than Hicham and Komen didn’t seem like he could have ever done it. I see his ceiling at low 3:27 even in superspikes. He has surprised me before though so who knows? He would probably have a slightly better shot at the 2000m record, but that is formidable as well.
How is he not like Hicham? They even race fairly the same. Hicham was an incredible 3k runner and ran 7:23. Hicham and Jakob are both world champions at 5k as well. They're actually a lot alike.
Ummmmmm…..well Jakob appears to be much more aligned with Daniel Komen. Not sure if you have heard of him. Daniel ran 3:29, 7:20 and 12:39. Jakob has run 3:28, 7:20 or so based on his 2 mile and 12:48 (2 years ago so probably 12:40ish now). Not sure if you can see the similarities there.
The wave lights will be set for 3,29,10 pace (Hicham’s Bislett record). 800 at 1,52.
Really? I heard from some very good sources (as of yesterday) that this is absolutely not the case and the lights will be set at 55.0's which is in fact WR pace. Could have changed in the last 24 hours I guess.
The wave lights will be set for 3,29,10 pace (Hicham’s Bislett record). 800 at 1,52.
Really? I heard from some very good sources (as of yesterday) that this is absolutely not the case and the lights will be set at 55.0's which is in fact WR pace. Could have changed in the last 24 hours I guess.
It was reported in Norwegian media yesterday. They quoted the meeting director.
What a lot of speculation. You are writing about the guy who won easily all paced races in the mile and 1500m last year. And he seems to be one level up this year.
My prediction:
He will go straight after the pacemakers and gap the field before or in the beginning of the last lap.
I will be surprised if any other runner comes closer than 1 sec behind.
I speculate your speculation is the likeliest outcome (going just for the win?). The Guse and Potato Tim fans will likely disagree, but are probably underestimating home track advantage. I just noticed the Filip is the race too, probably running gauntlet to protect Jakob.
More speculation!
Do you really think Nuguse´s and Tim´s fans think they will win.
I think Jakob will go for the win (of course) AND for a fast time (PB?).
He didn´t need home track advantage in the DL last year (apart from Oslo) or in the 5 important races he has won this year.
I doubt Filip will come close to Jakob apart from in the start.
We don't know anything. We don't know what Jakob could run for 800m, it's just speculation. We don't know what he will run for 1500m, just speculation. This whole thread is speculation. I just presented my own speculation, just food for thought.
That's true but we are speculating on what we know or think we know. The 1500 is a record that requires speed as well as stamina. The former is what Jakob has shown less of than virtually any other top 1500 runner.
I speculate your speculation is the likeliest outcome (going just for the win?). The Guse and Potato Tim fans will likely disagree, but are probably underestimating home track advantage. I just noticed the Filip is the race too, probably running gauntlet to protect Jakob.
More speculation!
Do you really think Nuguse´s and Tim´s fans think they will win.
I think Jakob will go for the win (of course) AND for a fast time (PB?).
He didn´t need home track advantage in the DL last year (apart from Oslo) or in the 5 important races he has won this year.
I doubt Filip will come close to Jakob apart from in the start.
I think this is true in this order: the win first. A fast time follows. He said so yesterday.
You confused Jakob’s two best 800meters -the windy against the 1.44 guy (1.43 a couple of weeks later I think) wasn’t Jakob’s best -1.47.22 (Two years earlier: 1.46.48 -good conditions). Saying that I don’t deny he can be faster now. -We just don’t know (Exceptions for Armstronglivs and Salvitore and a few more who think they know by heavenly inherent insight..)
"Heavenly insight" brought down to earth is where has he shown faster than 1.46x capability? He doesn't show it in the 1500m. Wightman can attest to that.
You just assume things based on very simplistic thoughts and impressions. But that doesn’t mean you are wrong -it only lowers the probability that you are right…
Your take on Jakob’s 800m speed and your view on doping aren’t necessary outlier opinions, but your surety (without any real signs of an inner discussion of pros and cons) is a red flag intellectually…
It’s like you declared “man never walked on the moon, because it’s too far away” -you might be right; the moon travels being a scam, but a 100% certainty without further reasoning (than it being to difficult) is the same red flag!
»..where has he shown faster than 1.46x capability?..” you ask, without discussing 1500m performances (the olympic final) that could suggest such a capability… I myself don’t know after examining the pros and cons -therefore your surety really seems to be heavenly sent…
To be fair: You pose one argument -Wightman beating Ingebrigtsen so easily in Eugene- but why so sure that was because of superior 800m speed (although you may be right -one can always be right regardless of the most simplistic thoughts; a shoot in the dark..!). -There were other 1.43 runners in the field that didn’t match Jakob. And Wightman himself said it was his bettering of stamina (and not speed) that gave the win. And do you really think that the definition of a kicker is the one with best speed (Cole Hocker, Woody Kincaid, Yifter “The Shifter”, even a Henrik Ingebrigtsen)…?
I know! I know! (waving my hand in the air) To break the 1500m world record he has to run it in 3:25:59 or faster. That would do it although it may not be that easy to do.
"Heavenly insight" brought down to earth is where has he shown faster than 1.46x capability? He doesn't show it in the 1500m. Wightman can attest to that.
You just assume things based on very simplistic thoughts and impressions. But that doesn’t mean you are wrong -it only lowers the probability that you are right…
Your take on Jakob’s 800m speed and your view on doping aren’t necessary outlier opinions, but your surety (without any real signs of an inner discussion of pros and cons) is a red flag intellectually…
It’s like you declared “man never walked on the moon, because it’s too far away” -you might be right; the moon travels being a scam, but a 100% certainty without further reasoning (than it being to difficult) is the same red flag!
»..where has he shown faster than 1.46x capability?..” you ask, without discussing 1500m performances (the olympic final) that could suggest such a capability… I myself don’t know after examining the pros and cons -therefore your surety really seems to be heavenly sent…
To be fair: You pose one argument -Wightman beating Ingebrigtsen so easily in Eugene- but why so sure that was because of superior 800m speed (although you may be right -one can always be right regardless of the most simplistic thoughts; a shoot in the dark..!). -There were other 1.43 runners in the field that didn’t match Jakob. And Wightman himself said it was his bettering of stamina (and not speed) that gave the win. And do you really think that the definition of a kicker is the one with best speed (Cole Hocker, Woody Kincaid, Yifter “The Shifter”, even a Henrik Ingebrigtsen)…?
Your arguments misrepresent mine - especially the nonsense about the moon. But it reduces to this: the 1500 requires a given level of speed (if Jakob is to beat 3.26) and not just endurance; where has Jakob indicated that he has the necessary speed as well as aerobic capacity?
I have focused on the 800 because it is an indicator. What else do we have? Has he run the 400 in around 48secs or closed a slow 1500 in 50-flat? I don't think so. So what evidence are you relying upon to show that he has speed - or are you simply assuming that any athlete with high endurance has the necessary speed to take what is recognized as an outlier 1500 record (in which case Bekele, Komen or Cheptegei should all have been capable of taking it)?
As for your point about the 1.43 runners that Jakob beat - sure he will do that if his endurance outweighs their speed, but it wasn't sufficient to take the 1.44 runner, who was stronger and faster at the finish. I also didn't say that 800 speed is the ONLY factor that will be decisive. But a given level of speed will be crucial to be able to beat 3.26. If he doesn't have it he will be running too close to his top speed for too long - and no one can do that without tieing up.
I don't see Jakob breaking this record. I'm assuming it will go something 54-56-56 through 1200 but he just doesn't have the same type of speed as El G or Lagat etc to get him under 3:26.
He'll run one of the fastest times in history - but not under 3:26. I think dipping under 3:28 is best case.
I would rather see him go for the 5000 based off the 2 mile performance.