Can KT Tuohy frontrun her way to a 1500 Championship? And then Double back for a 5k Title?

Looked at her World Athletic bio. Barnett is only 19?. Thought she was older. She’s got her work cut out for her.

My question is how many sub 4:10s does she have in her within a 2 week period?

Probably two more.

I hate commenting on weight (but here I go anyway). She seems to have dropped some weight this year versus last year and it has probably helped her.

Maybe one more. But will have to try to run a slower prelim and risk not moving on if she wants to have it for finals. But I thought she was going to melt down after that 4:09 prelim.

It looks to me like she has been practicing this strategy all season of going to the front hard and trying to hang on. She did it at Bryan Clay. I think she is going to do the same thing in the prelims.

She had a positive split on her last 200m at west so 4:08 may be the limit for now. I guess we shall see.

Howell can beat Touhy at 200, 400, 600 & 800 (2:02). 1000 would be a great race and Touhy starts to win at 1500 and up. In a slow race Touhy let's Howell and all the other 'speed' runners into the race. If Touhy goes 4:06 or quicker, the 'speed' runners are most likely neutralized, and anyone who hung around to win would have to pr. Assuming Barnett is in final, Touhy may be content to follow Barnett thru 700m, but she'll want to lead the last 800 and get to the bell in 3:00.

The 5000 is really much clearer. In this race Touhy and Tyynismaa are the kickers, Valby, Venters, Kemboi, Plourde are the front runners. Valby will be fresh, and appeared healthier in the trial, so will try to run away at the front. Touhy will either tuck into chase pack, or follow teammates to 3k. At some point 1600, 1200, 800??? Touhy will try to wind up a long close. Should be an interesting finish Tyynisma 4:09 and Plourde 4:08 could challenge Touhy, and Chmiel picking off lead pack stragglers from off the pace will also be in the hunt. This sounds fast, but given it's Austin (not Sacamento) the win may 'only' be in 15:30.

Have you watched any of Kemboi's recent races? She has developed an incredibly fast kick. It's very surprising.

Correct.

kemboi's progression over the last year is remarkable

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The thing that is most surprising is developing her speedy close... from being a 4:28 1500m runner to closing 5ks and 10ks in 65s. She had no signs of speed until this season.

Warning, 2 jokes: you are sounding like Astro and I looked at video of west 1500 and didn't see much speed from Kemboi at either start or finish.

Seriously, Kemboi, Venters, Chmiel all doubling back from 10k. It's a different kind of 'tough double', and unlike prelims this will be an all out 10k in heat. A very interesting race in its own right w/ Chelangat, Olemomoi, Chmiel, Kemboi and Venters. Results of this 10k will have a big impact on handicapping the 5k.

Hope you are right. Im a big 10 guy. But I will believe it when I see it-- Howell hot on the heels of a kicking KT from 400 out! Being fast in the 400 isnt the same as having the aerobic fitness and genes to kick 400 at the end of a 15/3000. I know you know that I am just sayin.

I like Valby, but front running wont be enough. What if i told you PV would have a football field lead in XC nationals with her talent? No way anyone has the fitness to run her down from that far behind at that elite level? But alas it happened.

The 10k is very tough to call. Chelangat has seemed a little stagnant all year, but she showed some improvement again this spring. Venters is a standout but unpredictable in championships. Kemboi looks extremely strong right now. I think those are the three podium contenders.

I'm oddly a pac12 guy, kt fan, dragging an old Valby thread user name. Similar to Howell, I had been promoting Whittaker's 52 400 speed and look where that got me.

In the interest of a ridiculous race, imagine Touhy and Barnett hitting the bell at 3:06 with a 6 person chase pack right on their heels. Touhy might/might not lose, but what a rare barnburner finish that would be. (that's also exactly what they are trying to avoid)

Valby- for the perfect race, I wish Valby was truly fit, and they had west coast weather. Nevertheless, you still have fresh Valby trying to run away from hard closing fatigued Touhy. What other strategy does Valby have? The only real option would be the old Kenyan trick of throwing in a series of crazy surges, but I don't think that is yet in her toolkit.

Tyynismaa for me is a real wild card. She has spooky talent, NCAA #3 xc pedigree, usatf 1500 speed and looked in form at acc/reg's. Imagine she does team job of pacing Tuohy thru 4k, then follows Touhy's 1k close and outsprints her ftw in last 50m for 18 team points! This board would blow up with a 1000 post thread. Tyynismaa is very good, due a slightly off May she is overlooked right now.

Her biggest challengers IMO are in the 1500 not the 5k. Barnett should do a great job of getting the pace moving, so that they come through 1100 in at least sub 3:05. If Tuohy comes through in 3:03 or faster from the front, I doubt anyone could catch her. Plourde to me is the wildcard, she ran 4:09 at PAC 12 and closed in 61, while only 4:08 at regionals while closing in 64. If it goes slow and Plourde brings her PAC 12 self, she could pull off the upset. Barnett has run 4 times at 4:10 or faster, but always pushes from the front so might be rigging a bit the final 200. Sophie O'Sullivan had a great kick to win west prelims, but hasn't broken 4:10 before this occasion so it has yet to be determined if that was more of a one off. The Oregon girls all look really strong, with Thornton Bott, Elmore, and Kazimierska all pretty interchangable (but I would give Thornton Bott the edge) as well as Howell. From the east, Flockhart looks really strong and a bit underrated IMO, while Appleton always has a good finish (honorable mention Ramsden etc.). Even with all of the challengers, I think Tuohy should still win. My only concern is if at 1100 it is 3:06 or slower, don't know if she has the same raw speed as some of the west girls.

Good assessment overall, pretty much agree. There are quite a few runners who could surprise in the field. Including Tuohy. She has not raced that much this season, but a 1500m PR could be in store for her as well.

I'll just add that Kascimerska started her kick at west from way, way back, she was in last place in the chase pack. Oregon is doing a great job with these runners on their sprint finishes.

Yep but they let races get too far away from them all the time.

agree - I think a fast 3rd lap is the key for Tuohy

Apparently Parker has the Steve Prefontaine poster in her dorm room with the quote, “The best pace is a suicide pace and today looks like a good day to die.”

Expect Great Things!!!