Why do I think he's plateaued? Well he didn't PR at any distance last year and he was outkicked by Wightman in the biggest race of the season. Yes he won the 5000 in impressive fashion, but his biggest rival in Cheptegei was running injured. None of his results suggest that he's improved since 2021,
I think people need to redefine the word 'plateaued' when you're talking about the elite of the elite. Performing consistently at the very limits of human performance isn't like your average letsrunner who has 'plateaued' at 42 minutes in the 10k since 2019. A miniscule change in race tactic or conditions can mean the difference between a 3:27 and a 3:28; it's not like that is entirely down to the athlete's condition or 'pb potential' on the day. The example you gave is perfect, Jakob fought off 2 or 3 ill-judged lead attempts by Tim in the WC final and as such it took enough out of him to give a kicking Wightman the edge. Had Tim not pushed for the lead so many times (or had Jakob allowed it) the race could have played out very differently. Ultimately, Wightman ran the best race on the day but let's not pretend that it was because he was in better 'pb' shape than Jakob or because Jakob had 'plateaued'.
There's something to this. You can argue Mo Farah plateaued in 2012 (didn't run a 5k or 10k PB after that) but still did the double in 2013, 2015, 2016, and won 10k gold in 2017. That's the kind of plateau I think most athletes would be happy to live with.
Yep! His fans might not want to be believe it because he’s still so young, but we have to remember he’s been training at a pro level since he was prepubescent. Because he started so early he reached his peak early. Now he is stuck on a plateau while the young Americans are improving and closing the gap fast. Jakob is number 1 for now but his days on top are numbered. Look for an American sweep at next year’s Olympics!!!
When has there ever been an American sweep? NZ arguably has a deeper distance history than the US with 1/30th the pop. MAFA.
I think people need to redefine the word 'plateaued' when you're talking about the elite of the elite. Performing consistently at the very limits of human performance isn't like your average letsrunner who has 'plateaued' at 42 minutes in the 10k since 2019. A miniscule change in race tactic or conditions can mean the difference between a 3:27 and a 3:28; it's not like that is entirely down to the athlete's condition or 'pb potential' on the day. The example you gave is perfect, Jakob fought off 2 or 3 ill-judged lead attempts by Tim in the WC final and as such it took enough out of him to give a kicking Wightman the edge. Had Tim not pushed for the lead so many times (or had Jakob allowed it) the race could have played out very differently. Ultimately, Wightman ran the best race on the day but let's not pretend that it was because he was in better 'pb' shape than Jakob or because Jakob had 'plateaued'.
There's something to this. You can argue Mo Farah plateaued in 2012 (didn't run a 5k or 10k PB after that) but still did the double in 2013, 2015, 2016, and won 10k gold in 2017. That's the kind of plateau I think most athletes would be happy to live with.
Hicham was still 23 years old when he ran his lifetime best of 3:26.00. Jakob is turning 23 in September, so his window is likely this year and next year to run his fastest 1500m, especially considering he started training early. Jakob has simply stopped improving, and we have seen the best of him. As I said, he is very good already so if he maintains this level he is still a potential winner at global championships.
I think people need to redefine the word 'plateaued' when you're talking about the elite of the elite. Performing consistently at the very limits of human performance isn't like your average letsrunner who has 'plateaued' at 42 minutes in the 10k since 2019. A miniscule change in race tactic or conditions can mean the difference between a 3:27 and a 3:28; it's not like that is entirely down to the athlete's condition or 'pb potential' on the day. The example you gave is perfect, Jakob fought off 2 or 3 ill-judged lead attempts by Tim in the WC final and as such it took enough out of him to give a kicking Wightman the edge. Had Tim not pushed for the lead so many times (or had Jakob allowed it) the race could have played out very differently. Ultimately, Wightman ran the best race on the day but let's not pretend that it was because he was in better 'pb' shape than Jakob or because Jakob had 'plateaued'.
Do you think Jakob was in better 1500m shape last year than in Tokyo? I would say no, but he had become a more confident/seasoned racer (hence confident DL runs). You can "blame" it on Tim's attempted passes all you want but trying to take the lead at 600 or 400 to go is not crazy or anything. Jakob's biggest tactical error was letting Wightman cut him off legally at 200 to go anyway when he eased up and was looking away heading into the turn.
EDIT: As a previous poster noted, I don't think the argument is that Jakob won't PB, but that his 1500 fitness has somewhat plateaued. Nothing too negative about that. The discussion on the podcast was interesting but somewhat missed the point.
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Hicham was still 23 years old when he ran his lifetime best of 3:26.00. Jakob is turning 23 in September, so his window is likely this year and next year to run his fastest 1500m, especially considering he started training early. Jakob has simply stopped improving, and we have seen the best of him. As I said, he is very good already so if he maintains this level he is still a potential winner at global championships.
If you base Jakob's PB potential on the PB age of an entirely different human being with an entirely different physiology and training history then what you say makes sense. However, reality doesn't care what age you think he ought to PB at.
This post was edited 13 minutes after it was posted.
Reason provided:
Spelling
Hicham was still 23 years old when he ran his lifetime best of 3:26.00. Jakob is turning 23 in September, so his window is likely this year and next year to run his fastest 1500m, especially considering he started training early. Jakob has simply stopped improving, and we have seen the best of him. As I said, he is very good already so if he maintains this level he is still a potential winner at global championships.
If you base Jakob's PB potential on the PB age of an entirely different human being with an entirely different physiology and training history then what you say makes sense. However, reality doesn't care what age you think he ought toPB at.
Hicham is only one reference point. The evidence for this exists without Hicham.
Do you think Jakob was in better 1500m shape last year than in Tokyo? I would say no, but he had become a more confident/seasoned racer (hence confident DL runs). You can "blame" it on Tim's attempted passes all you want but trying to take the lead at 600 or 400 to go is not crazy or anything. Jakob's biggest tactical error was letting Wightman cut him off legally at 200 to go anyway when he eased up and was looking away heading into the turn.
EDIT: As a previous poster noted, I don't think the argument is that Jakob won't PB, but that his 1500 fitness has somewhat plateaued. Nothing too negative about that. The discussion on the podcast was interesting but somewhat missed the point.
I think it's pointless to guess about his relative 1500m shape between a 3:28 and a 3:29 race, especially as the races were vastly different in execution. In Tokyo he was seamlessly rabbited by Tim and in Eugene he was having to put in bursts to stop Tim passing. And yes, in an already fast race, those bursts make a huge difference.
So this thread was referenced in your podcast and I listened to some of it. I actually enjoyed listening to your banter BUT all 3 of you have the wrong take. First of all, Jon, I was not basing this thread on the Rabat race. You would have to be the village idiot to make a thread based on one race like this. Second, I believe Rojo said that Jakob ran 12:48 last year and nobody corrected him. Jakob ran 12:48 two years ago. Rojo also said that Jakob is basically unbeatable at 5000m and of course none of you disagreed. Of course Jakob can be beaten at 5000m and there are several who could do it. Rojo also was approving of a post which said that Jakob would probably be the best in the world at 5 and 10 from 2024 until 2034. It really is amazing that any of you could concur with such obvious nonsense. Wejo also dismissed the notion that Jakob could be done improving. So all 3 of you had the wrong take on this. I enjoyed it anyway. Keep up the “good” work.
Thanks for pointing out my mistake. I'm surprised no one caught that.
I'm open to the idea he's peaked but I don't think it's likely. I also think it's possible he dominates the 5000 and 10,000.
A guy in the Norwegian media may write an article on this thread/ our podcast discussion of it.
He asked why did we think the OP started this thread and why was this thread generating so much discussion. Here is my reply.
Rojo wrote:
We brought up the thread on the podcast because it's a very interesting and outside-the-grain/provocative idea. When you first read it, it seems preposterous. Jakob is only 22 and won his first Olympic and world titles in the last two years. But then when you think about it a little bit, you can see why someone thinking outside the box would say it.
I think the thread was started because the reality is Jakob didn't PR in the 1500 or 5000 last year (I incorrectly said he PRd in the 5000) and he also lost both of his 1500 global finals. Moreover, his brother Henrik earned his best career finish at age 21 (5th Olympics) and tsm his 1500 PR at 23. Filip medalled at 24 and ran his 1500 PR at 25. But Jakob has been training at an elite level much longer than they had so one might think he'd peak before they did.
Now personally, as a former coach, I think the idea that you'd automatically stop running new PRs after so many years of training isn't really true as long as you aren't injured. Your body still has a physiological peak that should be kind of separate from your training age, but often times they just happen to line up.
That being said, Jonathan will attest to the fact that way back in 2014, even though Mary Cain won world junior gold that year, the fact that she didn't PR greatly concerned me. When you are young, you normally are improving no matter what. So one could make the same argument about Jakob. And if I'm being logically consistent, I guess I should be concerned but comparing a teenage woman to a 21-year old man is probably not a good idea.
It's also worth pointing out that Jakob's margin of victory over Ollie Hoare was nearly identical in his first outdoor race of 2022 and 2023. He beat him by .89 in the mile at Pre last year and by 0.80 in Rabat this year. Is that another sign he's not improving?
I very much hope he's not done improving but it's worth considering. I do think one thing to consider is this - how much faster can someone who only has 1:46 800 speed run in the 1500? That may be his limiting factor in the 1500.
But then in that thread, the idea that he's really at 5000 and 10,000 guy is really wild to consider. Since I've long heard his lactate levels are off the chart, I've long considered he somehow might be a 10k/half marathon monster. Since I view him as almost unbeatable in championship 5000s, why wouldn't that also apply to the 10,000? It will be fun to watch.
As a fan, I hope he makes history. I was the one who had to tell him that someone has already won two 1500 Olympic titles so maybe he can go for three? Or what about the first to win gold in 1500, 5000 and 10,000 in 100 years? He could become a modern day Paavo Nurmi 100 years after the fact. And let's don't forget he used to run the steeplechase - so how about all 4? ;)
Is he already past his peak? Or on his way to history? That's what makes it so much fun to watch.
If you base Jakob's PB potential on the PB age of an entirely different human being with an entirely different physiology and training history then what you say makes sense. However, reality doesn't care what age you think he ought toPB at.
Hicham is only one reference point. The evidence for this exists without Hicham.
Former WR holder Seb Coe set his 1500m PB a few days before his 30th birthday. How does that factor into your reference points?
Only a moran would think Jakob's 12:48 is his true ability. Maybe 12:40-12:42. But there is a good pool of mid-low 12:40s guys now incl Krop, Kimeli, potentially even Fisher, Katir, and Cheptegei again on the right day. The 5000 is far from conquered right now.
Jakob set a PR at the mile last year. So he did PR in 2022. Also, the reason there is a 1500 and not a mile at Bislett this year, is that Jakob and his team was not happy that there were so few 1500s on the program before the world championship in 2022 - hence a 1500 this year. And, yes, of course he wants to run a fast 1500 at Bislett. The mile has a history there, of course, but in Norway it’s an odd distance.
You also tend to forget that Jakob’s focus last year was the two outdoor championships. He won three gold and one silver.
He also didn’t participate in any really fast 5000s.
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Whether he has plateaued or not? May be has. But he hasn't showed his capasity yet. So may be he will run a 3.27 1500 soon. Actually that might happen at the 15th, Bislett Games. The weather will be great. 25 degrees and no wind. And a guy who is improving is Gjerts pupil Narve Gilje Nordås. He ran 3.34.70 five days ago. The last 500 sub 1.09. He will run against the big guys at Bislett.
So this thread was referenced in your podcast and I listened to some of it. I actually enjoyed listening to your banter BUT all 3 of you have the wrong take. First of all, Jon, I was not basing this thread on the Rabat race. You would have to be the village idiot to make a thread based on one race like this. Second, I believe Rojo said that Jakob ran 12:48 last year and nobody corrected him. Jakob ran 12:48 two years ago. Rojo also said that Jakob is basically unbeatable at 5000m and of course none of you disagreed. Of course Jakob can be beaten at 5000m and there are several who could do it. Rojo also was approving of a post which said that Jakob would probably be the best in the world at 5 and 10 from 2024 until 2034. It really is amazing that any of you could concur with such obvious nonsense. Wejo also dismissed the notion that Jakob could be done improving. So all 3 of you had the wrong take on this. I enjoyed it anyway. Keep up the “good” work.
Thanks for pointing out my mistake. I'm surprised no one caught that.
I'm open to the idea he's peaked but I don't think it's likely. I also think it's possible he dominates the 5000 and 10,000.
A guy in the Norwegian media may write an article on this thread/ our podcast discussion of it.
He asked why did we think the OP started this thread and why was this thread generating so much discussion. Here is my reply.
Rojo wrote:
We brought up the thread on the podcast because it's a very interesting and outside-the-grain/provocative idea. When you first read it, it seems preposterous. Jakob is only 22 and won his first Olympic and world titles in the last two years. But then when you think about it a little bit, you can see why someone thinking outside the box would say it.
I think the thread was started because the reality is Jakob didn't PR in the 1500 or 5000 last year (I incorrectly said he PRd in the 5000) and he also lost both of his 1500 global finals. Moreover, his brother Henrik earned his best career finish at age 21 (5th Olympics) and tsm his 1500 PR at 23. Filip medalled at 24 and ran his 1500 PR at 25. But Jakob has been training at an elite level much longer than they had so one might think he'd peak before they did.
Now personally, as a former coach, I think the idea that you'd automatically stop running new PRs after so many years of training isn't really true as long as you aren't injured. Your body still has a physiological peak that should be kind of separate from your training age, but often times they just happen to line up.
That being said, Jonathan will attest to the fact that way back in 2014, even though Mary Cain won world junior gold that year, the fact that she didn't PR greatly concerned me. When you are young, you normally are improving no matter what. So one could make the same argument about Jakob. And if I'm being logically consistent, I guess I should be concerned but comparing a teenage woman to a 21-year old man is probably not a good idea.
It's also worth pointing out that Jakob's margin of victory over Ollie Hoare was nearly identical in his first outdoor race of 2022 and 2023. He beat him by .89 in the mile at Pre last year and by 0.80 in Rabat this year. Is that another sign he's not improving?
I very much hope he's not done improving but it's worth considering. I do think one thing to consider is this - how much faster can someone who only has 1:46 800 speed run in the 1500? That may be his limiting factor in the 1500.
But then in that thread, the idea that he's really at 5000 and 10,000 guy is really wild to consider. Since I've long heard his lactate levels are off the chart, I've long considered he somehow might be a 10k/half marathon monster. Since I view him as almost unbeatable in championship 5000s, why wouldn't that also apply to the 10,000? It will be fun to watch.
As a fan, I hope he makes history. I was the one who had to tell him that someone has already won two 1500 Olympic titles so maybe he can go for three? Or what about the first to win gold in 1500, 5000 and 10,000 in 100 years? He could become a modern day Paavo Nurmi 100 years after the fact. And let's don't forget he used to run the steeplechase - so how about all 4? ;)
Is he already past his peak? Or on his way to history? That's what makes it so much fun to watch.
A reasonable take Rojo, but Jakob could be done improving and still win several more medals of course. So I don’t believe that if Jakob has hit his ceiling that it is a death sentence for his career. Far from it. Haile set his 5 and 10 records at age 25. Kenenisa set his 5000 record at 21 and 10000 at 23. These are simply examples of how we as fans like to think the window is expansive, especially for a not quite 23 year old Jakob, but many times we are watching an athlete at their absolute best and we do not recognize it until later. And of course as Jon alluded to in the podcast, running personal bests is not necessarily the same as being at one’s peak. However, there are some indications that Jakob has now stagnated at a very high level of elite running, and it shouldn’t be that surprising. I also think his dominance in one championship 5000m has led some smart folks to believe he is unbeatable at 5000m, when clearly he is not. Anyway I enjoyed the podcast and it is healthy that we can have different viewpoints and engage with some civility and respect.
Nobody should waste their time on this thread. The times that Jakob is running , if he keeps running them for the rest of his career 99% of pro runners will be honored to have a career like that. The times he is running are medal worthy times.
So this thread was referenced in your podcast and I listened to some of it. I actually enjoyed listening to your banter BUT all 3 of you have the wrong take. First of all, Jon, I was not basing this thread on the Rabat race. You would have to be the village idiot to make a thread based on one race like this. Second, I believe Rojo said that Jakob ran 12:48 last year and nobody corrected him. Jakob ran 12:48 two years ago. Rojo also said that Jakob is basically unbeatable at 5000m and of course none of you disagreed. Of course Jakob can be beaten at 5000m and there are several who could do it. Rojo also was approving of a post which said that Jakob would probably be the best in the world at 5 and 10 from 2024 until 2034. It really is amazing that any of you could concur with such obvious nonsense. Wejo also dismissed the notion that Jakob could be done improving. So all 3 of you had the wrong take on this. I enjoyed it anyway. Keep up the “good” work.
You're clueless!
As I always request, please enlighten us as to why you disagree. with Rojo's take below.
"Rojo also was approving of a post which said that Jakob would probably be the best in the world at 5 and 10 from 2024 until 2034".