I think that Rocky Mountain ID is going to be another contender. They probably couple of gotten top 10 at NXN this year if they had gone, and I spent some time digging and found that the average improvement of their top 7 runners from 2021 to 2022 was 54 seconds, with several dropping over a minute.
They return over 20 guys sub 18 minutes, and they have a low stick in Landon Heemeyer who will be trying to podium. Right now, they return - 14:38, 15:26, 16:10, 16:17, 16:27, and 16:34.
If they all drop even 30 seconds, and you throw in some of those 17-minute guys who have a big track season, it's not hard to imagine them top 5 at NXN. It's also important to note that Idaho courses are notoriously tougher than most other states, so that could factor into it.
Yeah and if they happen to get third at NXR they could get an at-large.
CDA and Luke Athay’s school will be other candidates, and these schools and Rocky Mtn will probably be racing each other so it will make a case for an at-large bid. And this region will be deep.
Crater will be the favorite again if all of their top 5 are on, and the second (and third) spot will be up for grabs
Jesuit OR will take a heavy hit after losing 3 of their top 4 (and having a big 4-5 gap) but they should not be counted out. They are a well coached team, and behind Caden Swanson, the rest of the returning squad consists of 2 freshmen and a soph relatively new to the sport, so they all should make a big jump next year. Another guy to complete the top 5 will probably be Jerry Schumacher’s son Eric if healthy.
At least Seattle Prep and Boise could also be in the running for second. This far out it looks like Crater takes one spot and a lot of good teams will fight it out for second.
Based on what happened last year, I wouldn’t count on an Idaho team that has never been to NXN finishing third and getting an at large bid.
I think that Rocky Mountain ID is going to be another contender. They probably couple of gotten top 10 at NXN this year if they had gone, and I spent some time digging and found that the average improvement of their top 7 runners from 2021 to 2022 was 54 seconds, with several dropping over a minute.
They return over 20 guys sub 18 minutes, and they have a low stick in Landon Heemeyer who will be trying to podium. Right now, they return - 14:38, 15:26, 16:10, 16:17, 16:27, and 16:34.
If they all drop even 30 seconds, and you throw in some of those 17-minute guys who have a big track season, it's not hard to imagine them top 5 at NXN. It's also important to note that Idaho courses are notoriously tougher than most other states, so that could factor into it.
This group of times also does not include the freshman Tuft who is their 6th man (3rd nonsenior) and has a 16:18 PR. Their second best nonsenior is a sophomore.
Since the #2 & #3 on the team are in 10th and 9th grade, we can expect both of them to step up big and give this team a very good 1-2-3.
CDA returns everyone (with most of their team consisting of freshmen and sophomores, and some new really good freshmen coming in next year) but they will need to close the 4-5 gap to make NXN.
And yes, the NW region has become so deep that it will probably deserve an at-large bid
Joseph Ruiz is a junior, must’ve been a mistake on the race directors part. If you look at the results a lot of those guys tripled, so my guess is that their coach didn’t want them to do too much too early
Joseph Ruiz is a junior, must’ve been a mistake on the race directors part. If you look at the results a lot of those guys tripled, so my guess is that their coach didn’t want them to do too much too early
A month in and Belen Jesuit only has 3 sub-9:40 guys... that's not gonna be good enough for the optimism.
And yes, the NW region has become so deep that it will probably deserve an at-large bid
Based off last year, California will get 2 at-large bids and the northwest will get none.
California 2 at-large bids? That’s debatable. I wouldn’t be surprised if there is one at-large berth though on the boys side. Newbury Park and Great Oak will not be as strong as they used to be as of now. They both lose 5 varsity seniors.
So the CA region will still be strong but not as strong as it used to be. Gotta remember that Brosnan is no longer coaching Newbury Park, and that Soles no longer coaches Great Oak.
I think San Clemente is the only CA boys team that has what it takes to return to NXN (based on who is coming back) next year. They keep 4 guys from that squad.
No brainer that Rocky was snubbed in 2022, but hopefully the NW will continue to be strong and earn an at-large team in 2023 (it does look like the NW has potential for 3-4 too 15 teams nationally)
I think that Rocky Mountain ID is going to be another contender. They probably couple of gotten top 10 at NXN this year if they had gone, and I spent some time digging and found that the average improvement of their top 7 runners from 2021 to 2022 was 54 seconds, with several dropping over a minute.
They return over 20 guys sub 18 minutes, and they have a low stick in Landon Heemeyer who will be trying to podium. Right now, they return - 14:38, 15:26, 16:10, 16:17, 16:27, and 16:34.
If they all drop even 30 seconds, and you throw in some of those 17-minute guys who have a big track season, it's not hard to imagine them top 5 at NXN. It's also important to note that Idaho courses are notoriously tougher than most other states, so that could factor into it.
I can imagine that not getting an at-large bid to NXN has motivated Rocky Mountain to work harder for next season
Remember, they barely lost at NXR to the teams that got 3rd and 5that NXN. If that wasn't good enough for an at large, I don't know what was.
Hindsight is always 20/20. I don't think the selection committee knew how teams were going to place at NXN prior to selecting. For 90% of the teams, you don't really know how they will place until the race is over.
I think that Rocky Mountain ID is going to be another contender. They probably couple of gotten top 10 at NXN this year if they had gone, and I spent some time digging and found that the average improvement of their top 7 runners from 2021 to 2022 was 54 seconds, with several dropping over a minute.
They return over 20 guys sub 18 minutes, and they have a low stick in Landon Heemeyer who will be trying to podium. Right now, they return - 14:38, 15:26, 16:10, 16:17, 16:27, and 16:34.
If they all drop even 30 seconds, and you throw in some of those 17-minute guys who have a big track season, it's not hard to imagine them top 5 at NXN. It's also important to note that Idaho courses are notoriously tougher than most other states, so that could factor into it.
This group of times also does not include the freshman Tuft who is their 6th man (3rd nonsenior) and has a 16:18 PR.
so this means they actually return seven sub-16:40 guys even though they lose 3 scorers.
Jesuit OR returns nine sub-16:45 guys, not including current junior Schumacher.
It was a joke because Rocky arguably deserved to go to NXN more than all the California teams aside from Newbury.
Remember, they barely lost at NXR to the teams that got 3rd and 5that NXN. If that wasn't good enough for an at large, I don't know what was.
You can't necessarily just say that because a team finished close by points in one meet that they would finish that same way at nationals. There were a lot of individual runners that didn't count towards score that were between Rocky and those other two teams. Crater had their runners finish in 1, 10, 27, 34 and 43. Jesuit went 4, 18, 26, 30 and 82. Rocky went 8, 14, 24, 62 and 99.
Rocky was 28 points out of beating Jesuit but got hammered on 4 and 5. It's hard to get an at-large when your 4th and 5th score almost the same score alone as the team that finished "just" ahead of you. If you want to plug them into NXN, say Heemeyer finishes relative to the other guys he finished around at NXR (just ahead of Tostenson) and they have the same spread, they finish in 12th or so with 311 points. They had a bad day at the qualifier meet. That's the brutal part of this sport. You can look great all season but two guys that finish around your #3 guy have bad days on the one day that really matters and you don't go to the dance.
I think that Rocky Mountain ID is going to be another contender. They probably couple of gotten top 10 at NXN this year if they had gone, and I spent some time digging and found that the average improvement of their top 7 runners from 2021 to 2022 was 54 seconds, with several dropping over a minute.
They return over 20 guys sub 18 minutes, and they have a low stick in Landon Heemeyer who will be trying to podium. Right now, they return - 14:38, 15:26, 16:10, 16:17, 16:27, and 16:34.
If they all drop even 30 seconds, and you throw in some of those 17-minute guys who have a big track season, it's not hard to imagine them top 5 at NXN. It's also important to note that Idaho courses are notoriously tougher than most other states, so that could factor into it.
I think Rocky is going to be good next year, but the 54 seconds thing isn't a great measure. They ran two courses that were the same courses as the year before (Tiger/Grizz and Bugtown) or around the same time for the third, NXR. Tiger/Grizz is notoriously hard the first time you run the course.
But for Bugtown's varsity team?
Heemeyer: 15:58 to 15:20 Sainsbury (had COVID in fall of 21, so hard to compare): 16:11 to 15:27 Hill: Wasn't in Idaho Keith: 16:04 to 15:44 Cody Lucas: didn't race Bugtown in 21. Hyrum Tuft: in middle school Pierce Richardson: Didn't race at all in 21.
NXR: Heemeyer: 16:00 to 15:24 Sainsbury: 16:25 to 15:31 Keith: 16:34 to 16:11 Same story for the other 4.
Inland Empire, which is also the Idaho State meet course, and Middleton are just flat out way faster than anything else they ran in 2021. Trying to sell those as difficult courses is a joke.
Belen has 4 returners sub 9:30 this early into the season
Bro Buchholz just crushed them at Bolles.. put three guys in front of their #1 in the 1600m and they would have no 5th man right now.
But the 1600 didn’t have Josh or Joe Ruiz, Torres, or Montecon. Those 4 all ran a sub-9:30. Plus, there is lots of time to find a 5th. Belen has good depth so I’m sure they will find one.
Socarras has run a 4:17 so he could be the one to close the 4-5 gap in the fall
Your counting out Herriman. How do you go from 4th in state to 3rd in nationals in less than one month time? Craziness and coach soles is coming back
Not that it will for sure happen, but it wouldn’t be surprising if Herriman beats Crater next year because: 1- Herriman will have more depth (Crater will only be 5-deep so if anyone has an off day at NXN, it will really hurt them. It would help Crater if they work on finding a 6th or even a 7th). 2- Herriman is losing Horne / Jenkins, but Steadman will be a good replacement for one of them based on track times. And he didn’t even race at NXN. 3- Soles is a very good coach and always has guys come out of nowhere.