I have it broken down in a different thread, I’ll try and find it.
There is a decent steep hill at about 1400/1500 repeated at 4400/4500. A smaller climb at about 2K/5K. A long less steep climb at about 2500/5500 and an extra hill on 2nd loop (on the inside) at about 3500 (similar to hill at 1400/2500).
Excellent, thanks! (Now I don’t have to look up what my notes were).
I wonder if there is any particular advantage to where your box placement is.
The start is broad, wide open and extends out far starting with a slightly sloping descent. Placement should have practicality nil effect over the race distance.
Because most posters have never heard of her. Orton was last year's champ and had 4:09. Tuohy has the fastest 1500 by the way. But if no correlation, I guess we should expect a bunch of 4:45 1500 runners to finish top 10.
Because most posters have never heard of her. Orton was last year's champ and had 4:09. Tuohy has the fastest 1500 by the way. But if no correlation, I guess we should expect a bunch of 4:45 1500 runners to finish top 10.
Nothing against her. She is a good 800 /1500 runner. She seems to be running better in XC this year than last. But that Gans creek course is not the hardest and the Tuohys/Valbys etc could probably run 19:00 or likely faster there.
Because most posters have never heard of her. Orton was last year's champ and had 4:09. Tuohy has the fastest 1500 by the way. But if no correlation, I guess we should expect a bunch of 4:45 1500 runners to finish top 10.
Orton had a 15:12 5k PR in 2021 in addition to the 4:09. How fast do you think Howell can run a 5k? 5k is more of a correlation with 6k times.
Thinking is Alabama will likely not make the podium, so there 1-3 will not be holding back, with Chelangat putting distance on the other two. They still could sneak onto the podium anyway, depending on circumstances.
I disagree. Alabama absolutely has a very real shot at the podium this year. Unless notre dame upends them, they are pretty much a lock for atleast #4.
Thanks...very interesting looking at the splits for the 2020 Nats:
Mercy ran 3:05, 3:24, 3:37, 3:16, 3;20, and 3:17...she was the only runner to break 3:20 in the last km. Actually there were only 2 or 3 that were under 3:30 for the last km.
It looks like that hill between 2 and 3 km is a killer.
Thanks...very interesting looking at the splits for the 2020 Nats:
Mercy ran 3:05, 3:24, 3:37, 3:16, 3;20, and 3:17...she was the only runner to break 3:20 in the last km. Actually there were only 2 or 3 that were under 3:30 for the last km.
It looks like that hill between 2 and 3 km is a killer.
I incorporated those 2020 splits with a couple of ideas how the race might go and early indicators of the pace.
What is the rationale for OK state and NC State pack running ... but not Alabama?
Thinking is Alabama will likely not make the podium, so there 1-3 will not be holding back, with Chelangat putting distance on the other two. They still could sneak onto the podium anyway, depending on circumstances.
Again, I would say any runner in the top group halfway through the race is not holding back. As we have seen this year, every point will matter....this does not mean they will go blow themselves up, but they will not be leaving anything in the tank either.
In my mind, this is a more important consideration for the 3 to 5 runners on the teams....because of the number of places that a 1 or 2 second gap can mean. They will be focused on pacing with runners of other teams as much as their own pace. But not the top group.
I have the following teams in serious contention for the trophy:
New Mexico-NC State-OU
The first two listed are very very close, and somewhat ahead of OU. Now that is with New Mexico’s 1st two runners coming in around 6-8 and NC States’s 1st two coming in around X-4 or X-5. The point of this post is that the position of X (whether it flips from 1-3) has little affect on New Mexico’s overall score, but the position of X is going to greatly affect the overall score and final standing of NC State (because NM and NCState are so close.)
Therefore, if Tuohy tries to hang with the lead pack of Valby, Chelangat, Kemboi, McCabe, and Howell (and maybe some other fast runners I’m missing whose team is not in contention), she could easily flip 2-3 sticks, and the trophy goes to New Mexico.
Why don’t you list your projected pegs for New Mexico and for NC State to see if what I’m saying makes sense, FastT.
I agree with this
"The first two listed are very very close, and somewhat ahead of OU." [OSU I think!]
But I see different places (team points)
I have NC St with 2 in top 5, Bush 20-25, Seymour 30-35, and at least 1 of Rauber/Howlett/Mareno/Quarzo around 50 for ~110.
I have NM with 3 in 15-22 range, 1 around 25, 1 more around 30 for ~110 as well
I have OSU with 3 in top 15 (~20 total), but then 45-50 and 55-65 for ~130.
Close enough that anyone could win.
If NM gets someone in top 10 and rest of lineup performs the trophy is theirs. If OSU top 3 perform and their 4-5 can be 35 and 45 the trophy might be theirs. NC St needs the 2 top 5, next 2 right in the middle of NM scoring pack (20-25) and then someone to get in 45th.
NM is the one team that might be able to absorb a bad day by someone in top 5 as they have a 6th pretty close to their 5th (and 1-5 spread ~10).
I also have ND well clear of AL for 4th, but well behind OSU. This is with ALA's 5th scoring well over 100.
BYU with a healthy Hutchins and Annalee Weaver might have found the podium....but alas
This looks right to me. Hard to envision OSU competing with the other 2 though but it's possible.
UNM is deep with no contenders, they're almost certainly +/- 15 points of the 110, especially with their #6 as you point out. They're going to have a very small team spread.
It really is super dependent on NCSU's #4 and #5. The +/- for NCSU feels like 25 or 30 points.
The variability of outcomes for NCSU seems large and for UNM it seems miniscule. So feels like it's NCSU's to win or lose.
Thinking is Alabama will likely not make the podium, so there 1-3 will not be holding back, with Chelangat putting distance on the other two. They still could sneak onto the podium anyway, depending on circumstances.
Again, I would say any runner in the top group halfway through the race is not holding back. As we have seen this year, every point will matter....this does not mean they will go blow themselves up, but they will not be leaving anything in the tank either.
In my mind, this is a more important consideration for the 3 to 5 runners on the teams....because of the number of places that a 1 or 2 second gap can mean. They will be focused on pacing with runners of other teams as much as their own pace. But not the top group.
I think a main issue is ‘The Valby Factor’. It’s not cut-and-dried what that exactly is going to be on this course, either in our minds or in the minds of her competitors, nor in the mind of Valby herself.
This course is incredible, and the competitors that have run it know what is coming. Valby hasn’t experienced it yet, and her competitors know that, so when she takes it out, and continues on, they are going to be uncertain on exactly what to do.
Like I said, she could end up taking a few ‘over the cliff’ with her.
Roe has this course memorized in her sleep, so the smart thing to do might be to key off her, rather than Tuohy, i.e., if Tuohy doesn’t allow herself to be gapped by Valby, no matter what.
Thanks...very interesting looking at the splits for the 2020 Nats:
Mercy ran 3:05, 3:24, 3:37, 3:16, 3;20, and 3:17...she was the only runner to break 3:20 in the last km. Actually there were only 2 or 3 that were under 3:30 for the last km.
It looks like that hill between 2 and 3 km is a killer.
I incorporated those 2020 splits with a couple of ideas how the race might go and early indicators of the pace.
I think a main issue is ‘The Valby Factor’. It’s not cut-and-dried what that exactly is going to be on this course, either in our minds or in the minds of her competitors, nor in the mind of Valby herself.
This course is incredible, and the competitors that have run it know what is coming. Valby hasn’t experienced it yet, and her competitors know that, so when she takes it out, and continues on, they are going to be uncertain on exactly what to do.
Like I said, she could end up taking a few ‘over the cliff’ with her.
Roe has this course memorized in her sleep, so the smart thing to do might be to key off her, rather than Tuohy, i.e., if Tuohy doesn’t allow herself to be gapped by Valby, no matter what.
Agreed, Valby is the main the main X factor. I do believe there are a few others though as well:
1) McCabe - she is untested this year...hard to say how she will fair. I believe she will be very close at the end
2) Mercy - I don't think Mercy has shown anything yet this year, but I would not count her out of being with Tuohy and/or Valby on the last hill. Her losses to both Tuohy and Valby are fairly irrelevant at this time of year.
3) Weather - it is going to be just below freezing when the race starts, also looks like it is going to snow the day before. That could have a massive influence on results. Does it affect the southern state runners more? Makes sense, but I really have no idea.
4) and finally, Tuohy - she has not been challenged yet this year. She has run with the pack in a couple of races until the 4km mark, and then run away from everyone. ND tried to push the pace against her...she had no issue in pacing with them and then again doing a hard kick. Her fitness seems at another level right now.
Will Valby go out hard...sure, but the hills will limit her ability run away. It's a downhill start I believe, so everyone will be fast....a 3min 1st km (or less) is likely. Is Valby going to try and do much more than that? probably not. So if Valby is going to try to gap the field, it will need to be on the first or second hill. That will be very interesting to see.
Also, I noticed you kept the 1st km even with 2020 (i agree with this) as well as the last km...virtually the same as Mercy. Again, I agree with this. It would be hard to run a much faster last km, especially if the middle hills are run 20 - 30 seconds faster this year. Mercy was pretty flat out in 2020 at the end.
