Where to start wrote:
TL;DNR: OP is babbling incoherently.
1) OP says WWIII is "on the horizon."
2) "On the horizon" means "imminent, likely to happen."
3) "Likely to happen" means "with a probability > 50%."
4) OP also says "I'd put the probability at 25%."
5) Since 50% is 2x 25%, the OP is saying, "the probability of war" is at least twice "the probability of war."
Saying the probability of some event is twice its own probability is literally incoherent.
QED
You totally lost it when you went to step 5.
Also on the horizin does not necessarily mean imminent.